Most wide open season since 2011?

[bballnut90]

The last decade or so has been monopolized by UCONN, and for the first time in about 6 years it didn't take a miracle for the Huskies to go down. I don't think anyone was too shocked by tonight's outcome based on how the Huskies have played this year, but it also makes this season feel a lot more wide open than it has in a LONG time. Looking at the last 11 years, this was my general thought process for much of each season:

2018-it's going to take a miracle to knock off UCONN

2017-after the ND game in December, I thought it'd take a miracle to upset UCONN

2016-miracle to knock off UCONN. 4 #1 seeds had 1 combined loss that wasn't head to head entering the tournament. 0 parity.

2015-Stanford gave me a glimmer of hope, and then after the ND game I realized it would require another miracle to knock off UCONN. ND/UCONN for the 5th straight year in the tournament and 3/4 same Final Four teams as 2014. Zero parity.

2014-it's going to take a miracle to knock off UCONN, although I had hope for ND. Both teams went undefeated until the title game, the season felt very predictable.

2013-miracle to knock off Baylor. UCONN and ND were good but didn't think they had what it took to beat Baylor. These 3 teams were stellar but everyone else was light years behind. No one really gave any of these teams very difficult games IIRC besides the Stanford upset over Baylor when Sims was out. Season felt very predictable until the Louisville upset.

2012-miracle to knock off Baylor. All 4 one seeds made the Final Four, I didn't think anyone could give Baylor a good run. All 4 #1 seeds were clearly the 4 best teams in the country all year.

2011-this season felt very similar to how I feel now after UCONN lost in strikingly similar fashion to Stanford. Stanford had a couple of bad losses earlier in the year (like Baylor's loss to Stanford) and then played an outstanding game to beat UCONN convincingly. UCONN finished the regular season without any other losses but was challenged big time by Notre Dame and Baylor during the regular season. I thought all of UCONN, Baylor, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Stanford and A&M had great shots to win the title that year. UCONN/Baylor/Stanford led the way most of the year but it never felt like a team had a firm grasp on being #1.

2010-miracle to beat UCONN. Stanford was good but UCONN was handily better.

2009-miracle to beat UCONN

2008-felt a lot more open. Tennessee and UCONN led the way as favorites, but you couldn't count out teams like Maryland, Stanford, LSU, Rutgers, etc. Lots of really close competitive games throughout the season.

In 3 of the seasons, miracles were granted in epic games, but it was at the expense of a somewhat dull regular season that wasn't very competitive.


Looking at this year, you have a lot of teams that could beat a #1 team on any given night and then play like dirt the next:
Connecticut-soundly beat Notre Dame, played awful against Baylor
Baylor-beat UCONN, awful loss to Stanford and looked shaky against Arizona State
Louisville-no true signature wins yet but they've had a handful of close calls and are undefeated
Mississippi State-looked out of sorts in their Oregon loss, soundly beat Texas. Great game against Marquette but could've lost.
Stanford-bad loss to Gonzaga, great wins over Baylor and Tennessee
Notre Dame-they've looked great all year besides the awful showing vs. UCONN. Nearly was upset by Oregon State.
Oregon State-lost to A&M (who lost tonight to South Carolina) and nearly beat Notre Dame
Oregon-lost to Michigan State, nearly lost at home to Syracuse. Looked like a completely different team against Mississippi State

Lots of season still left to be played, but IMO it's shaping up to be one of the least predictable seasons we've had in a long long time and I personally think it's going to make the rest of the season very exciting.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Think the Irish are still the best team and clear favorite. Now next year is when things really open up, even more so if Ionescu goes pro. I would've made UConn the favorite with Jones and Boston, but we know how that turned out.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Good post, but I'd agree Notre Dame looks like they're the best team. But not overwhelmingly. They've been on a roll since that UConn loss though.

It is pretty wide open, and for once we get a watchable year. Unlike football... damn Bama and Clemson has really put that sport on the snoozepilot.

Biased as I may be, I still think my dogs have a great shot. Lots of aspects of our game is elite, and 4 players have gotten much better. Still... I would not count out anyone yet. Not even Louisville despite looking the way they have lately. Wouldn't even count out Maryland despite that weird loss to Rutgers.

....

 

[bballnut90]

Think the Irish are still the best team and clear favorite. Now next year is when things really open up, even more so if Ionescu goes pro. I would've made UConn the favorite with Jones and Boston, but we know how that turned out.

Notre Dame lost by 18 at home and nearly lost to Oregon State. I just dont see that as a clear favorite. When they turn on the jets they're very good, but not at the level of being a massive favorite like UCONN /Baylor (Griner era) have been in years past.

 

[bballnut90]

Good post, but I'd agree Notre Dame looks like they're the best team. But not overwhelmingly. They've been on a roll since that UConn loss though.

It is pretty wide open, and for once we get a watchable year. Unlike football... damn Bama and Clemson has really put that sport on the snoozepilot.

Biased as I may be, I still think my dogs have a great shot. Lots of aspects of our game is elite, and 4 players have gotten much better. Still... I would not count out anyone yet. Not even Louisville despite looking the way they have lately. Wouldn't even count out Maryland despite that weird loss to Rutgers.

....

I think Mississippi State has a great shot. Team has gelled quite well with all the new players, especially Howard and Danberry.

Danberry and Holmes make up one of the best backcourts in the country IMO. Nothing flashy but they have stellar A/TO ratios and play outstanding defense.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Notre Dame lost by 18 at home and nearly lost to Oregon State. I just dont see that as a clear favorite. When they turn on the jets they're very good, but not at the level of being a massive favorite like UCONN /Baylor (Griner era) have been in years past.

They don't have to be on the level of past UConn or Baylor teams to be the clear favorite this year. I didn't say they were leagues above all others. The loss to UConn is a bit of a one-off. But things happen. UConn was easily the best team last year and we saw how that turned out. The Irish aren't invulnerable but I'd still make them odds-on favorites.

 

[UConnCat]

Notre Dame should be the favorite because they’re so difficult to defend. ND is not a great defensive team but Turner’s presence helps make up for some of Mabrey’s and Ogunbowale’s defensive lapses. Plus, I would expect ND to be more motivated to defend in the tournament than they were on Dec 3.

 

[Wbbfan1]

About the only positives from last nights game against Baylor was that UConn managed to stay even with Baylor on the boards. Also I thought another positive that with the exception of Camara the team stayed out of foul trouble.

Rebounds D O Total
Baylor 33 13 46
UConn 28 15 43

What was disappointing was Megan only had two. While her offensive game has been inconsistent, she's usually able to get rebounds by her hustle or being in the right place on defense.

I agree with the poster, this years championship is wide open and UConn won't go into the tournament as the favorite to win it all. I like the Stanford team and I'm curious to see how they fare against Oregon in their conference play.

 

[JonathanXIV]

I think what makes this year so wide open is that the top teams all seem to have match up problems. Baylor is big, but has difficulty scoring from the outside and doesn't match up well with quick teams. UConn has issues addresses teams that can out muscle them outside and is then after the five starters. Notre Dame has had issues defending teams that are good offensively. Mississippi State can be exposed if another team can handle their defensive pressure. And the list goes on. Various teams match better with some teams as opposed to others. The tournament could be very interesting this year, and more dependent on who plays who as opposed to recent years.