Most likely to stop the streak?

[Suebird10fan]

Eventually the streak will be stopped. Assuming, for the sake of this thread, that it happens this year (and that's much more likely than not IMO), how would you rank opponents in terms of likelihood to stop the streak?

I think MD is a no-brainer at #1. You could argue that SC has a better shot at beating UConn, but two things have to happen to be the winner in this competition. You have to beat UConn ... AND the streak has to be alive when you do it. MD is almost certain to face UConn with the streak alive. That's not the case with SC simply because MD gets the first shot.

#2 is more interesting. I'd put SC as #2 but you can make a very strong case for USF (ranked #14 on both Massey and Sagarin, ahead of both Tx and OSU) based on the fact that they are likely to have 3 shots at UConn. I ran the numbers by assigning probabilities to each of the competitive games. SC came out #2 but I wouldn't have to tweak the probabilities much to have USF come out #2.

I think #4 and #5 have to be Baylor and ND. I'd put it in that order but you could argue the other way around. Just comes down to which team would have a better shot at UConn in the Final Four.

My full list:
MD
SC
USF
Baylor
ND
FSU
OSU

If it happens, and I expect it will, the odds are over 95% that it will be one of those seven teams.

 

[msf22b]

I prefer to contemplate how we stop Mitchell and annihilate OU.

 

[oldude]

I think it's going to be Winthrop. After their annihilation at the hands of Baylor, Winthrop's alumni, administration & athletic dept are going to be up in arms about their lack of competitiveness, so they'll start pouring money into the program, hire a big time coach and set about building Winthrop into a powerhouse.

I predict that Winthrop will beat the Huskies in the NCAA finals.....in 2028 after Geno retires.

 

[UcMiami]

That would be basically my list as well, but because of sequence and actual scheduling of games I would have to move OSU up the list ahead of Baylor who we may not see again this year (nor ND, nor FSU.) If we win tomorrow, then OSU disappears from the list.

 

[Suebird10fan]

That would be basically my list as well, but because of sequence and actual scheduling of games I would have to move OSU up the list ahead of Baylor who we may not see again this year (nor ND, nor FSU.) If we win tomorrow, then OSU disappears from the list.

Massey has UConn at 99% to beat OSU tomorrow. I think that's a tad high but my guess is around 98%. If you brought that down to 96% or below, which is certainly arguable, then I would agree that OSU is #4.

 

[USFMB]

Maryland clearly has the best shot, playing at home.
However, Massey still has them losing by 13 points (81-68).

Massey has USC losing @Uconn by 15 points (77-62).

Massey has USF losing at home by 18 points (80-62).

Massey Ratings - University of Connecticut Huskies

Frankly, I think USF at home has a better chance of beating UCONN than USC.

USF would have the benefit of having played UCONN earlier in the season and that should help their players to not be so uptight, having already been through that experience. USF isn't expected to realistically win, which can somewhat free up their play.

There is much more pressure on USC, since they are a national powerhouse and are expected to perform like one.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Windex.............they always stop the streak.

 

[Frenchy]

I was a Gampel on Feb 18 2012 standing behind the basket when Kelly Farris missed a lay-up and we lost to an unranked team name St John which ended about 6 to 7 streaks. So, it is not necessary the big wolf but the sleeping fox that get you sometimes. Ask Baylor about Louiville.

 

[bags27]

Of course, if you've "run the numbers" (how did you do that???), that's one thing.

I see Maryland as entirely winable because UConn has a week off after Nebraska, which itself could be a big-time trap game right after OSU. USF is a brutal game, because it is away and follows right on the heels of the away Maryland game. That's really tough.

Rather than look at which teams on paper are the best opponents, in a case like this, I think circumstances play a huge role. UConn lost its last game when it played the second consecutive west coast game: they lost focus in the final 5 minutes against Stanford and blew their lead accordingly. With a Geno-coached team, it's rarely about pure match-ups (since he can usually figure that out to his advantage); it's usually about circumstances he can't control.

 

[JordyG]

Most likely to stop the streak? Injury. Plain and simple. Of course, also as ochoopsfan has said. But more importantly, this team with such a short bench cannot afford a hiccup. Injuries, though a part of any game, would be their Jonestown Kool Aid.

 

[iamcbs]

I prefer to contemplate how we stop Mitchell and annihilate OU.

I checked the schedule and Connecticut doesn't have Oklahoma or Ohio University on their schedule this season and neither of those teams has a player named Mitchell?

 

[vtcwbuff]

UConn will end the streak. They will have a bad day against an inferior opponent and lose.

 

[oldude]

UConn will end the streak. They will have a bad day against an inferior opponent and lose.

Really?

 

[cookie447]

This thread is way too negative to give any credence......

 

[ochoopsfan]

Perhaps these gals are incredibly determined to show "we are that good too" especially after hearing how the "Big 3" are gone, and this would be a rebuild or reload year.
Mentally, there isnt a team, in WCBB, close to UConn. Some teams have pluses in some areas of the game, namely down low, then UConn has, but sometimes determination and mental toughness can overcome a lot. I wouldnt trade this UConn team, for any other team that is out there this season. Love their MoJo, and we shall see.

 

[Sonny44]

I think MD will be our last tough game until the NCAAs.

 

[SCGamecock]

I think MD will be our last tough game until the NCAAs.

UConn may win vs. SC in February... but it won't be as easy as you suggest.

 

[alexrgct]

I simply cannot worry about it. If UConn makes more history by getting to 91, I'll be amazed at everything I've had the privilege of experiencing. How far the streak extended into uncharted territory past 90 wouldn't matter to me. Beyond that, the streak I'd be inclined to focus on would be six...in the NCAA tourney. Now *that* would be greedy....if we aren't already. Nah, on second thought, we're just spoiled.

 

[alexrgct]

UConn may win vs. SC in February... but it won't be as easy as you suggest.

Both those teams look very formidable in my view. I wouldn't take anything for granted against either. At least the Gamecocks come to our place this year.