Miss St - Stats and Musings

[PhillyCoach]

First, congrats to Miss St. They played with great effort, defense, and were very hungry. Baylor had some friction on the sidelines and Wallace had a poor outing. Anyway, Miss St did it (William scored 41) and they are the next opponent for UConn.

I believe in the eye test and statistics give us strong indications of performance. Here are some numbers to crunch:
MS only has two scorers in double figures--Vivians at 16 and Wm at 11. The next three scorers are at 9,8,&7.
UConn scores 20, 20, 14, 13 and Chong at 8.
Assists - MS only has one player over 100 assists (Wm) and Vivians has only 57 assists with 62 TURNOVERS---
MS has a 1.1 assists to turnover ration.
-UConn has 5 players over 100 assists and a 2.0 assist to TO ratio.
Rebounds - MS two big girls have a 7 and 5 rebound average. They are the top rebounders.
UConn's top two are at 9 and 8 rebound average.
MS has 312 steals ----- UConn has 366.
MS has 147 blocks ---UConn has 178.
MS scores 77 a game UConn 87 a game.
MS gives up 57 a game and UConn gives up 53 a game.
MS shoots 45% FG, 35% 3pt-----UConn shoots 53% FG and 40% 3pt.

I think the numbers give solace to some. They tell a good story. Also, MS will be in their first FF so they will be experiencing some new emotions.
This info might help with your score prediction---or not!
Personally, I was surprised at some of MS stats. They were not as good as I expected for a #2 seed with a very good record.
IMHO - UConn shuts down William and Vivians and UConn wins going away. However, let's play the game and see what happens.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

First, congrats to Miss St. They played with great effort, defense, and were very hungry. Baylor had some friction on the sidelines and Wallace had a poor outing. Anyway, Miss St did it (William scored 41) and they are the next opponent for UConn.

I believe in the eye test and statistics give us strong indications of performance. Here are some numbers to crunch:
MS only has two scorers in double figures--Vivians at 16 and Wm at 11. The next three scorers are at 9,8,&7.
UConn scores 20, 20, 14, 13 and Chong at 8.
Assists - MS only has one player over 100 assists (Wm) and Vivians has only 57 assists with 62 TURNOVERS---
MS has a 1.1 assists to turnover ration.
-UConn has 5 players over 100 assists and a 2.0 assist to TO ratio.
Rebounds - MS two big girls have a 7 and 5 rebound average. They are the top rebounders.
UConn's top two are at 9 and 8 rebound average.
MS has 312 steals ----. UConn has 366.
MS has 147 blocks ---UConn has 178.
MS scores 77 a game UConn 87 a game.
MS gives up 57 a game and UConn gives up 53 a game.
MS shoots 45% FG, 35% 3pt----UConn shoots 53% FG and 40% 3pt.

I think the numbers give solace to some. They tell a good story. Also, MS will be in their first FF so they will be experiencing some new emotions.
This info might help with your score prediction---or not!
Personally, I was surprised at some of MS stats. They were not as good as I expected for a #2 seed with a very good record.
IMHO - UConn shuts down William and Vivians and UConn wins going away. However, let's play the game and see what happens.

I think miss state would need huge performances from Viviens, Williams, and the big center to have a chance. There is very little outside of those three to fear.

But those three could be enough on the right night. Not very likely though.

I will say miss state making the final four made me feel better about South Carolina's struggle putting them away this season, but I think they probably have overachieved.

 

[rambler]

I think the numbers give solace to some.

Those numbers give a lot of solace to me.....

 

[CBear01]

Great post, but I hate to have to say it...

On paper Baylor looked INCREDIBLY better than MS and we know how that panned out...

You can't see passion and grit on paper, and boy does this MS team have it. It's going to be a tough game Friday. They deserve to be here just as much as we do.

 

[Beemer]

Great post, but I hate to have to say it...

On paper Baylor looked INCREDIBLY better than MS and we know how that panned out...

You can't see passion and grit on paper, and boy does this MS team have it. It's going to be a tough game Friday. They deserve to be here just as much as we do.

Yup, as of yet there is no way to quantify guts and determination.

Maybe someone will come up with an app for it someday

 

[UcMiami]

And yearly stats vs the last 4 games would be a little different. MSS is now playing 10 players so individual stats can look more skewed and they are averaging about 10-15 more points per game than they have all year.
They play good defense and they are now scoring better than they have all year. A month ago, playing the way they were, Baylor would have won easily - but this is March and a whole new ballgame!
Agree that they are basically a three player scoring attack, but hopefully CD does not have the scout, because every time she does, she complains that the kid who has made 2 threes all year and shoots 20% from the field just knocked down 6 threes and shot 80%

 

[blkkirk]

Coaches daughter has been playing very well.

 

[huskeynut]

Regardless of the stats, anything can happen on Friday night.

Do I think William goes off on UConn - absolutely not. Do I think Vivians lights it up against UConn - absolutely not. As to their two bigs, we have been there and done that. Gabby and Pheesa will have it covered. And we have Nat to come in and restore order if needed. They have seen our defense last year, but this is another year. Our defense is not exactly the same as last year. We cover the passing lanes very well.

Can State's defense shut us down - no. With 5 players with a 100+ assists, with 4 players scoring double figures, with 4 players very capable of burying the 3 - State has big problems.

No 60 point blow out this time. Probably a 20+ point win for us.

 

[todbo]

The MS 6'7" big had her game of a lifetime against Washington since Osafor was simply exhausted. Not much chance of her wearing down any of our players like that. As always, our potential trouble is if fouling gets to be a problem (so that the quick MS guards can run unchecked and we have to lay off the big girl). I'm optimistic that we won't see that issue arise.

 

[Geno-ista]

Regardless of the stats, anything can happen on Friday night.

Do I think William goes off on UConn - absolutely not. Do I think Vivians lights it up against UConn - absolutely not. As to their two bigs, we have been there and done that. Gabby and Pheesa will have it covered. And we have Nat to come in and restore order if needed. They have seen our defense last year, but this is another year. Our defense is not exactly the same as last year. We cover the passing lanes very well.

Can State's defense shut us down - no. With 5 players with a 100+ assists, with 4 players scoring double figures, with 4 players very capable of burying the 3 - State has big problems.

No 60 point blow out this time. Probably a 20+ point win for us.

Is our defense better this year without Stewie in the lane?