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Message: [QUOTE="KryHavok, post: 5092702, member: 12905"] Okay, I went back and looked at that link that [USER=3391]@Patman[/USER] posted above. The Game Outcome Function shown in the table can be easily calculated in Excel. If Team 1 has 30 points and Team 2 has 29, the arithmetic average is 29.5, the standard deviation is (50*(30+29))^0.25 = 7.369797 (this is NOT the arithmetic standard deviation, which would be 0.707107). Never mind using the GOF equation shown in the link, you can easily determine the GOF in Excel using the [B]norm.dist[/B] function in which you input the reference value, mean, standard deviation, and distribution type. The GOF for Team 1 would be given by: norm.dist(30, 29.5, 7.369797, TRUE) = 0.527045 ~ 52.7% of Team 1 winning again, where the TRUE indicates a cumulative distribution with a max value of 1. [/QUOTE]