Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Patman, post: 5092191, member: 3391"] Found that somebody figured out Ken Massey's method... well, I wish I knew about this 18 years ago. [URL unfurl="true"]https://omfgpwn3d.livejournal.com/5069.html[/URL] Based on that I fit the model on Division 1 data only for this year only with a collective home field calculation. UConn sits 57. Between Cal and Baylor. Ahead of Duke. I suspect that if Massey's function is still current that its most likely using previous year's data as a non-trivial input. Keep in mind he ranks all of NCAA and NAIA on the same sheet so he will NEED to use some amount of previous data as a lot of D2/D3/NAIA stay with insular schedules until the end of the year. I have no real idea of what's under the hood. Now, I don't believe Massey's method is justifiable under statistical methods but these become a means to an end... he may have messed with it an incredible number of ways since 2005. edit: My last statement is true for virtually all computer ranking systems. I have an idea of the model I'd want to use but I haven't figured out how to write it but I have some "on the way" models I'd like to try. Bayesian nonparametrics and copulas. edit #2: One reason not to use the new season's data immediately. Navy 15, Army 13 as described the model fit that put uconn at 57... current Massey has them 53 and 57 respectively. Again, he may have also changed his outcome function but I highly doubt he's fundamentally changed his method. [/QUOTE]