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Message: [QUOTE="nelsonmuntz, post: 4194004, member: 833"] I looked it up, and it turns out there are defenses on the court when teams are trying to score. If the defenses know you are going to just pass it around the perimeter and jack 3's, they will play stretch 2-3's, matchup zones or switch on every screen and force rushed shots on the perimeter. A mediocre Heat team got to the NBA finals in 2020 by playing a loose 2-3, completely shutting down a very good Bucks team along the way that thought it was taking high percentage shots but really wasn't. Analytics has begun to track pullups vs. catch-and-shoot (catch-and-shoot is a lot more accurate), but does not yet track where the pass for the catch-and-shoot came from. I expect we will eventually learn that a kick out from the post to a 3 point shooter is a much higher percentage shot than a pass around the perimeter where the player has to turn to shoot and the defense is already there by the time he is facing the hoop. Analytics also rewards a drive to the basket from 25 feet away over a post up, because the offense starts in a 5 out and analytics does not yet separate whether a player had to drive into the teeth of the defense that has rotated over vs. getting a pass in the post and having to make one move to get a high quality shot off. I think the next generation of analytics will show that what happens right before the shot has a much bigger impact on the expected value of the shot than where the shot is taken. [/QUOTE]

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