77 is in the extremely unlikely range. They need wins to pull that up. Playing Illinois and Penn State will not be a big help.
I mentioned in another thread that Beknighted of the Rutgers board posts some "stuff" around tournament time. He has records about RPI and seeding and missing the tournament. I'm not going to try to dig it up, but the chance of teams making the tourney at large with RPI's more than a certain number becomes microscopic. Over 70 fits the bill, I am certain.
Yes, this is correct. I did some research on this issue myself last year, and my recollection is that 70 is the lowest RPI that I was able to find among at-large teams. (Granted, my research only went back so many years. I recently tried to dig up my research and, much to my frustration, couldn't find it!)
However, any team that is in the 70s with 2-3 weeks left to play — especially in an opportunity-rich conference like the Big Ten — is still very much in the running if they check the other prerequisite boxes (winning record, quality wins). Michigan State would definitely not make it if Selection Day were today, but they have "time and space" to better their position (and their RPI) between now and March 16.
I'll be eager to see what Beknighted posts on this topic.