McMurphy strikes again: "No way" the Big East gets more than $130M ($9m all-sports, $2m CYO teams))

[Rumrunner]

@McMurphyESPN: @ucfmat Thanks Mat. But there's no way they will get more than $130M. We'll see how close they can get to that, though

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Assuming we see a breakdown of 75% football, 25% basketball, it looks like:
$98 million to football
$33 million to basketball

A breakdown of 70% football, 30% basketball looks like:
$91 million to football
$39 million to basketball

7 basketball only, 10 others that play basketball and football
3 football only
1 unknown school that most likely will be football only (BYU, , Fresno, ECU, Col. State)

$2 million to all sports schools and basketball only schools based on basketball contract value
$7 million to all sports and football only schools based on football contract value

UConn, UCF, Memphis, Temple, Rutgers, SMU, Houston, USF, Cincy, Louisiville get $9 million/year [$9 million/year]

SDSU, Boise State, Navy, (unknown 14th): $7 million/year [$6.5 million/year]

Providence, Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Nova, St. John's: $2 million/year [$2.3 million/year]

Current payouts:
ACC: $17 million
Big 12: $20 million
Big 10: $20-22 million
Pac 12: $20 million (Pac 12 network about to up that significantly)
SEC $17 million (currently being negotiated, SEC network being proposed)

 

[gioff23]

Nothing like a reporter posting something laden with facts and reliable sources. How about no way McMurphy gets a real assignment, but interesting to see how close he gets to a sniff of one. No one knows how this will play out, and I think we need be realistic, but what is the value of a supposed writer tweeting a random thought? I hate Al Gore for single-handedly creating the beast that is the internet

 

[Marty Jackson]

Amazing use of math...
Somehow, regardless of the breakout, he gets to $130M...
Genius.

 

[whaler11]

Amazing use of math...
Somehow, regardless of the breakout, he gets to $130M...
Genius.

Isn't that Rumrunner backing into the #?

 

[RS9999X]

The SDSU contract had several outs. The expectation was for $6.4 million for football and 70% of BE revenue from football. A figure floating around last week was $3.6 mil for basketball and $6.4 for football (similar to the red break down above).

This Big East football revenue includes incentive-based bowl revenue distribution. Currently those incentives for the league’s six bowl games are: $2 million for a BCS game, $1.3 million for the Champs Sports Bowl, $1.1 million for the Belk Bowl, $1.5 million for the New Era Pinstripe Bowl, $1.1 million for the BBVA Compass Bowl and $1.1 million for the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. All of those bowl incentives are in addition to mileage allowances for travel.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2011/dec/13/big-east-sdsu-outline-agreement/


Aresco's decision to parcel out basketball in 3 or 4 deals (ESPN/ABC, CBS, SNY/Fox, Big East Tournament) makes sense. For UConn to grant all rights and get $2.6 mil for basketball? Given that the girls are getting $1.2 from SNY? That's insulting.

I think we'll see $3.9 for basketball and $6.4 for Football and call the $10.3 a win. That doesn't include television/bowl incentives

 

[Rumrunner]

Indeed it is. McMurphy tweeted the top line number. I took the most widely assumed fb/bb split numbers and apportioned the revenue accordingly.

According to the ACC contract, fb/bb split is 80/20 there. Boise State's exit fee goes down if the split isn't at least 70/30. Given Aresco's fixation on basketball, I wouldn't be surprised if
the cyo schools argue for a bigger piece of the pie, just because.

Isn't that Rumrunner backing into the #?

 

[whaler11]

I'm struggling to see NBC paying for football but not getting the good basketball.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

McMurphy? I thought the chief killed him before he flew the nest.

 

[coachcap]

McMurphy? I thought the chief killed him before he flew the nest.

"Ummm, Juicyfruit!"

 

[zls44]

I'm struggling to see NBC paying for football but not getting the good basketball.

Unless they can get the EPL to start playing games at 9 PM BST on Saturdays, they have no choice. They need the content.

 

[whaler11]

Unless they can get the EPL to start playing games at 9 PM BST on Saturdays, they have no choice. They need the content.

Sorry. I don't see how it can maximize the return for the football schools.

I guess we'll see but if I'm investing in this league I'm not having you sell off the jewels to others while I just get 'content'.

Classic Big East - maximize the rake for the basketball onlies if true. I thought things were different now?

 

[coachcap]

The one major stumbling block for the Big East in these negotiations: So many of the teams in the rebuilt football conference are having down years in addition to the perception of lack of historically elite teams.
This conference will be a collection of newbies (UConn, USF, Boise) & various teams that were never the relevant teams in their former conferences (Houston & SMU had stints of success, but were not Bevo or aTm relevent). The leverage is all with the networks, & in business, one tries to get the most for the least payout to maximize profit. Comcast-NBC is the Joker in the deck. They need content. I tend to agree with Waylon-Nelson that they will offer the largest contract for content. They need it to spread over NBC, NBC Sports (a.k.a. Versus, Outdoor Life Channel) & Comcast Sportsnet (formerly Fox Sports, formerly Sportschannel). If a plan goes into effect that Big East content is spread over multiple networks piecemeal, I can't see how it will maximize profit for the conference. NBC-Comcast seems the only alternative.
In any event, today is Emancipation Day. The conference can officially begin negotiations with all comers. Let the negotiating games begin.

 

[Rumrunner]

Coachcap, not the only major stumbling block, but that is the essence of those trying to "talk down" the Big East. The BE argues markets, tv argues brands. But the dynamic of the bb/fb split can't be ignored. (If you're tv, and the BE comes to you and says, "We have the largest markets in the country, these schools are going to enjoy more success in the future by virtue of being in a better conference, therefore they will command a higher market share in their local market, as well as nationally", tv simply says, "Sure, then lets redo a contract in 5 years and pay on performance and not potential". That is the opposite of the BE bb side.

Notwithstanding the crappy teams in BE bb (RU, PC, Hall, UCF, SMU, Houston, DePaul, etc) there is plenty of top quality content at the top based on brands...UConn, UofL, Gtown, Nova, Marquette, Cincy, etc) that fill out a prime tv schedule.

Football has the markets, BE basketball the brand. Does that justify a different apportionment of revenue, than say the ACC? Will SDSU and Boise (and presumably one other football school) be content with a bigger pay day in toto (adding in the playoff revenue, bowl revenue) and not so concerned that some of "their" tv revenue is going to go to the catholic basketball schools? My guess is that they will politely ask what aisle the lubricant is when requested to bend over. Aresco's latest theme is leveraging basketball to get a good football contract. That would make basketball happy (which is paramount), while fb only grouches privately. But just as the BE got screwed royally by the non-AQ AQ format of the playoffs and contracts bowls due to an alliance of the little 5 and big 5, the same will happen to the non-basketball members. All sports schools don't care about the fb/bb apportionment presumably.

With respect to how that works in the real world, as Whaler stated above, I can't see a network like NBC settling for the crappy fb content while ESPN gets the BE men's tourney and marquee men's bb. NBC just doesn't need content Sept thru November. They need it in the dark days of winter, too.

 

[Marty Jackson]

the other side to look at is Aresco needs to apply some pressure on NBC. If NBC thinks that they may be part of a conglomeration of networks bidding, they may be more apt to step up and pay a larger piece for the whole enchilada.

 

[Jericho]

Nothing like a reporter posting something laden with facts and reliable sources. How about no way McMurphy gets a real assignment, but interesting to see how close he gets to a sniff of one. No one knows how this will play out, and I think we need be realistic, but what is the value of a supposed writer tweeting a random thought? I hate Al Gore for single-handedly creating the beast that is the internet

It's a tweet. What do you expect?

But to say no one knows what will happen is a bit of an overstatement. There's no certainty, but people in the know (and McMurphy seems well in the know) have a pretty good idea on what to expect. He could be wrong, but he probably will not be.

 

[Husky68]

Anyone who tells you they know what someone else is willing to pay for something when there are several legit bidder has no clue. That's what I learned by watching storage wars.

 

[Bill Sussman]

McMurphy? I thought the chief killed him before he flew the nest.

I thought I accidently wandered into the Cesspool and that McMahon and Murphy combined forces to become a mutant candidate.

 

[ZooCougar]

McMurphy is just a pawn. If he is getting info then it is just help shape atmospherics in the negotiations.