Massey's top 20

[HuskylnSC]

I haven't seen anyone post Massy's preseason rankings so here is the top 20;

Team​	Record​	Rat​	Pwr​	Off​	Def​	HFA​	SoS​	SSF​	EW​	EL​
Stanford Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	1 9.35​	1 67.77​	4 99.09​	1 33.44​	2.78​	1 0.00​	1 52.58​	20.46​	4.54​
Connecticut Big East	0-0 0.000​	2 9.14​	2 65.96​	5 98.83​	4 31.88​	2.78​	1 0.00​	13 50.21​	24.09​	4.91​
Baylor Big 12	0-0 0.000​	3 9.12​	3 65.80​	3 99.63​	7 30.93​	2.78​	1 0.00​	34 48.40​	24.52​	5.48​
Maryland Big 10	0-0 0.000​	4 9.11​	4 65.71​	1 103.80​	28 26.67​	2.78​	1 0.00​	3 51.56​	22.76​	7.24​
South Carolina Southeastern	0-0 0.000​	5 8.96​	5 64.40​	8 97.83​	6 31.32​	2.78​	1 0.00​	2 51.95​	20.79​	6.21​
Oregon Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	6 8.71​	6 62.25​	18 95.03​	3 31.97​	2.77​	1 0.00​	20 49.62​	17.19​	5.81​
Arizona Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	7 8.57​	7 61.05​	42 92.69​	2 33.12​	2.78​	1 0.00​	40 48.06​	12.85​	4.15​
Indiana Big 10	0-0 0.000​	8 8.51​	8 60.51​	14 96.19​	11 29.07​	2.78​	1 0.00​	8 50.93​	20.89​	9.11​
UCLA Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	9 8.50​	9 60.47​	19 95.01​	8 30.21​	2.78​	1 0.00​	57 46.83​	10.62​	3.38​
Louisville Atlantic Coast	0-0 0.000​	10 8.41​	10 59.66​	15 95.63​	13 28.79​	2.77​	1 0.00​	32 48.49​	21.83​	8.17​
Michigan Big 10	0-0 0.000​	11 8.38​	11 59.40​	10 97.24​	24 26.92​	2.78​	1 0.00​	4 51.50​	19.59​	10.40​
Iowa Big 10	0-0 0.000​	12 8.33​	12 58.96​	2 102.86​	123 20.85​	2.77​	1 0.00​	5 51.25​	18.85​	10.15​
Oregon St Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	13 8.25​	13 58.32​	17 95.12​	17 27.95​	2.77​	1 0.00​	54 47.18​	12.05​	4.95​
NC State Atlantic Coast	0-0 0.000​	14 8.24​	14 58.23​	13 96.24​	25 26.75​	2.78​	1 0.00​	11 50.64​	19.43​	9.57​
Ohio St Big 10	0-0 0.000​	15 8.21​	15 57.93​	7 98.06​	46 24.63​	2.78​	1 0.00​	22 49.38​	18.37​	9.63​
Oklahoma St Big 12	0-0 0.000​	16 8.19​	16 57.75​	21 94.57​	18 27.93​	2.78​	1 0.00​	9 50.65​	19.84​	10.16​
Texas Big 12	0-0 0.000​	17 8.17​	17 57.59​	37 93.25​	10 29.09​	2.78​	1 0.00​	14 50.01​	19.28​	10.72​
Iowa St Big 12	0-0 0.000​	18 8.14​	18 57.31​	6 98.64​	64 23.42​	2.78​	1 0.00​	19 49.63​	18.11​	9.89​
Northwestern Big 10	0-0 0.000​	19 8.11​	19 57.06​	40 92.85​	12 28.96​	2.77​	1 0.00​	10 50.64​	20.04​	10.96​
Rutgers Big 10	0-0 0.000​	20 8.08​	20 56.80​	32 93.68​	19 27.88​	2.78​	1 0.00​	52 47.26​	20.05​	9.95​

 

[hoopsfan22]

Baylor and Maryland ahead of South Carolina? Does Baylor even have a coach?

 

[visitingcock]

Baylor at 3 tells me all I need to know. Yeah sure.

Massey loved them some Ducks all year in 2020 despite their off-season losses

 

[Purchase1]

I haven't seen anyone post Massy's preseason rankings so here is the top 20;

Team​	Record​	Rat​	Pwr​	Off​	Def​	HFA​	SoS​	SSF​	EW​	EL​
Stanford Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	1 9.35​	1 67.77​	4 99.09​	1 33.44​	2.78​	1 0.00​	1 52.58​	20.46​	4.54​
Connecticut Big East	0-0 0.000​	2 9.14​	2 65.96​	5 98.83​	4 31.88​	2.78​	1 0.00​	13 50.21​	24.09​	4.91​
Baylor Big 12	0-0 0.000​	3 9.12​	3 65.80​	3 99.63​	7 30.93​	2.78​	1 0.00​	34 48.40​	24.52​	5.48​
Maryland Big 10	0-0 0.000​	4 9.11​	4 65.71​	1 103.80​	28 26.67​	2.78​	1 0.00​	3 51.56​	22.76​	7.24​
South Carolina Southeastern	0-0 0.000​	5 8.96​	5 64.40​	8 97.83​	6 31.32​	2.78​	1 0.00​	2 51.95​	20.79​	6.21​
Oregon Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	6 8.71​	6 62.25​	18 95.03​	3 31.97​	2.77​	1 0.00​	20 49.62​	17.19​	5.81​
Arizona Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	7 8.57​	7 61.05​	42 92.69​	2 33.12​	2.78​	1 0.00​	40 48.06​	12.85​	4.15​
Indiana Big 10	0-0 0.000​	8 8.51​	8 60.51​	14 96.19​	11 29.07​	2.78​	1 0.00​	8 50.93​	20.89​	9.11​
UCLA Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	9 8.50​	9 60.47​	19 95.01​	8 30.21​	2.78​	1 0.00​	57 46.83​	10.62​	3.38​
Louisville Atlantic Coast	0-0 0.000​	10 8.41​	10 59.66​	15 95.63​	13 28.79​	2.77​	1 0.00​	32 48.49​	21.83​	8.17​
Michigan Big 10	0-0 0.000​	11 8.38​	11 59.40​	10 97.24​	24 26.92​	2.78​	1 0.00​	4 51.50​	19.59​	10.40​
Iowa Big 10	0-0 0.000​	12 8.33​	12 58.96​	2 102.86​	123 20.85​	2.77​	1 0.00​	5 51.25​	18.85​	10.15​
Oregon St Pac 12	0-0 0.000​	13 8.25​	13 58.32​	17 95.12​	17 27.95​	2.77​	1 0.00​	54 47.18​	12.05​	4.95​
NC State Atlantic Coast	0-0 0.000​	14 8.24​	14 58.23​	13 96.24​	25 26.75​	2.78​	1 0.00​	11 50.64​	19.43​	9.57​
Ohio St Big 10	0-0 0.000​	15 8.21​	15 57.93​	7 98.06​	46 24.63​	2.78​	1 0.00​	22 49.38​	18.37​	9.63​
Oklahoma St Big 12	0-0 0.000​	16 8.19​	16 57.75​	21 94.57​	18 27.93​	2.78​	1 0.00​	9 50.65​	19.84​	10.16​
Texas Big 12	0-0 0.000​	17 8.17​	17 57.59​	37 93.25​	10 29.09​	2.78​	1 0.00​	14 50.01​	19.28​	10.72​
Iowa St Big 12	0-0 0.000​	18 8.14​	18 57.31​	6 98.64​	64 23.42​	2.78​	1 0.00​	19 49.63​	18.11​	9.89​
Northwestern Big 10	0-0 0.000​	19 8.11​	19 57.06​	40 92.85​	12 28.96​	2.77​	1 0.00​	10 50.64​	20.04​	10.96​
Rutgers Big 10	0-0 0.000​	20 8.08​	20 56.80​	32 93.68​	19 27.88​	2.78​	1 0.00​	52 47.26​	20.05​	9.95​

South Carolina at 5 is the most insane thing I’ve seen preseason so far that’s crazy lol

 

[Plebe]

Massey is just showing how teams ended last season. It's a computer model and can't take into account personnel changes in the offseason, hence rather meaningless as a preseason ranking.

 

[Dokey]

I looked at PAC-12 preseason predictions and saw that a Colorado team is picked to finish 7th, Massey shows five PAC-12 teams in top 20, which agrees with my prediction CU finishes 6th, though a higher finish would not surprise me, given a short-handed CU team beat Stanford last year, the PAC-12 is tough, no surprise after last year’s NC game was two PAC-12 teams. South Carolina has second toughest conference schedule.

 

[oldhusky]

Massey is just showing how teams ended last season. It's a computer model and can't take into account personnel changes in the offseason, hence rather meaningless as a preseason ranking.

Yea doesn't mean much until you get a few games under your belt. Also some teams are still in the process of completing their schedule so the expected wins and losses don't add up the the normal number of games. The expected losses for the top teams are way high in my opinion. I would take the under on that for Uconn, Stanford, South Carolina, Maryland etc.

 

[visitingcock]

I looked at PAC-12 preseason predictions and saw that a Colorado team is picked to finish 7th, Massey shows five PAC-12 teams in top 20, which agrees with my prediction CU finishes 6th, though a higher finish would not surprise me, given a short-handed CU team beat Stanford last year, the PAC-12 is tough, no surprise after last year’s NC game was two PAC-12 teams. South Carolina has second toughest conference schedule.

Massey actually has the Big 12 as the second toughest conference. I think SCar's #2 SOS is based on non-conference scheduling of Stanford, UConn, Maryland, NC State, . . .

 

[Vowelguy]

Massey is just showing how teams ended last season. It's a computer model and can't take into account personnel changes in the offseason, hence rather meaningless as a preseason ranking.

This. ^^^^^^^^

THIS IS NOT A PRESEASON RANKING.
It is an end of 2021 ranking.

 

[triaddukefan]

Massey is just showing how teams ended last season. It's a computer model and can't take into account personnel changes in the offseason, hence rather meaningless as a preseason ranking.

Thanks... I didn't want to have my blood pressure rise as I scrolled down the list.

 

[Charliebball]

Thanks... I didn't want to have my blood pressure rise as I scrolled down the list.

you didn't expect to see Duke on that list did you?........

 

[stamfordhusky]

This. ^^^^^^^^

THIS IS NOT A PRESEASON RANKING.
It is an end of 2021 ranking.

Not exactly. Massey’s preseason ranking is a weighted average of the past few years. If you compare the preseason rankings to his final rankings in 2021, you will see there are a number of differences.

 

[triaddukefan]

you didn't expect to see Duke on that list did you?........

Top 20 no... somewhere in the top 350.. yes

I shouldn't have looked at the full list... Duke was 42.... but High Point was 270 Lemme log off and go outside an cool down.

 

[Alydar]

I looked at PAC-12 preseason predictions and saw that a Colorado team is picked to finish 7th, Massey shows five PAC-12 teams in top 20, which agrees with my prediction CU finishes 6th, though a higher finish would not surprise me, given a short-handed CU team beat Stanford last year, the PAC-12 is tough, no surprise after last year’s NC game was two PAC-12 teams. South Carolina has second toughest conference schedule.

Massey's "predictions" are 100% based on last season's results. It's a 100% analytic-based rating system. As teams play actual 2022 games the 2021 season results will count less and will disappear once a team has played 10 games (I believe).

One good use of the site right now is that 2022 schedules are available by clicking on a team name.

 

[Charliebball]

Top 20 no... somewhere in the top 350.. yes

I shouldn't have looked at the full list... Duke was 42.... but High Point was 270 Lemme log off and go outside an cool down.

Tubby can't be happy about that.......

 

[visitingcock]

Massey is just showing how teams ended last season. It's a computer model and can't take into account personnel changes in the offseason, hence rather meaningless as a preseason ranking.

Did Oregon end up higher ranked than Arizona by Massey last year like they are now? I dont remember.

but I do remember that Zona swept the Ducks heads to head, , had a better conference record than the Ducks, beat more high ranked teams than the Ducks , and was the national championship runner up.

but then the Ducks were way overrated by Massey throughout last year.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Yeah, I NEVER could figure out why the computer formulas liked Oregon so much last year. Lost to pretty much everybody good they played all year til Georgia in the Tourney (Oregon St. in mid December doesn't count, the Beavs stunk at the time). They did beat Washington St. twice, which many other Pac 12 teams didn't manage to do, so there's that, but not exactly a huge resume booster. 0-6 against Stanford, Arizona and UCLA. 1-2 against Oregon St. including 2 losses back to back right before the Tourney started. 1-8 against #1, 2, 3 and 5 in the conference standings (UO was #4). If you ever needed a reason to not buy into computer formulas, the Ducks last year were a prime example.

 

[Cuango]

Yea doesn't mean much until you get a few games under your belt. Also some teams are still in the process of completing their schedule so the expected wins and losses don't add up the the normal number of games. The expected losses for the top teams are way high in my opinion. I would take the under on that for Uconn, Stanford, South Carolina, Maryland etc.

I’d like to bet a lot of money that UConn will not lose 4 games this season! That’s a bet I would actually borrow money for!

 

[stamfordhusky]

Did Oregon end up higher ranked than Arizona by Massey last year like they are now? I dont remember.

but then the Ducks were way overrated by Massey throughout last year.

No, Oregon was behind Arizona. As I mentioned above, the preseason Massey ratings for this year are NOT the same as the final Massey ratings of the year before. Rather they are weighted averages of the last few years of results.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Massey's "predictions" are 100% based on last season's results. It's a 100% analytic-based rating system. As teams play actual 2022 games the 2021 season results will count less and will disappear once a team has played 10 games (I believe).

Not exactly. Massey actually uses a weighted average of the last few years of results.

 

[HuskylnSC]

This. ^^^^^^^^

THIS IS NOT A PRESEASON RANKING.
It is an end of 2021 ranking.

Not really. I thought so too at first. But it appears to me to be a beginning of 2021-2022 - check the estimated wins and losses and Strength of Schedule columns.

 

[HuskylnSC]

I’d like to bet a lot of money that UConn will not lose 4 games this season! That’s a bet I would actually borrow money for!

The number for EW and EL is a statistical analysis. If you go to his board and check the game by game analysis the only loss is to SCAR by 1.

 

[visitingcock]

Voodoo

 

[Alydar]

An explanation from the board developer:

Massey Ratings Description

Preseason Ratings​

Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years' final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

 

[visitingcock]

An explanation from the board developer:

Massey Ratings Description

I would assert that the consideration of previous “years’ final ratings” (note use of plural -not year’s) does not disappear after ten games as evidenced by Oregon’s continuous over ranking last year. Either that or the algorithm places too much emphasis on “good losses” .

Oregon had a slew of good losses and no good wins but stayed in the top six. - frequently above two of the teams that swept them.

I should be careful. We could end up being a good win for Oregon during the first ten games of this year.