Massey predictions for the S16 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Massey predictions for the S16

drweo said:
From a statistically challenged reader: What do the following column headings on that chart mean?

"Scr" (all zeros??)

"Margin" ( all negative numbers?)

"Total" ( what + what ? )
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Scr = actual score of the game, zeros for now as the games haven't started.

Margin = predicted margin, in Vegas betting line format. So, for example, -10.5 means you are "giving" 10.5 points to the house when betting on Maryland. If they win by 11+, your Maryland bet would win. If they win by 10 or less (or lose), your Maryland bet would lose.

Total = predicted sum of both teams' final scores, everything is done in half numbers again for betting purposes. Using the MD game again, the total is 155.5. So the "over" bet wins on a combine score of 156+ and the "under" wins on a combined score of 155 or less.
 
Phil said:
Based on their body of work, Massey has UCLA ranked 10th, so he sees them as better than the selection committee or the polls.
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I saw UCLA play once in person - last regular season game, they spanked ASU. I didn't get the feeling they could keep up with UConn's crisp offensive execution and ball movement, or with our aggressive and disciplined defense. I think we could slice them and dice them in short order.

Canada spent a lot of time down on the floor - from selling fouls, and also just getting knocked around. She was about half the size of the next smallest player out there. We were laughing after a while - seemed like she was always dragging herself up off the ground.

Billings didn't seem that impressive, but maybe it was just that game. I was particularly unimpressed by her "sports diaper" look.
 
So, for :

As a team, UCLA has scored 2449 points on 2804 opportunities for a team NISE of -355. Compare this to UConn's 2982 points coming from 2705 opportunities or a team NISE of +277.
UCLA takes more shots and scores way fewer points than we do. I believe this is the least efficient team, in regard to NISE, whom we have played.

Their five top scorers combine for a NISE of -272, with Korver being the most efficient at -9, and Billings bringing up the rear with a -110.

If you look at UConn starters through last night:

KLS................. 523 opportunities and 709 points NISE = +186
Phee................ 532 opportunities and 688 points NISE = +156
Gabby............... 440 opportunities and 465 points NISE = +25
Kia................. 350 opportunities and 394 points NISE = +44
Saniya.............. 233 opportunities and 252 points NISE = +19

That is a mind-blowing +430 NISE rating for the starters!

I understand that this a simple stat summing total FGA's with total FTA's, then comparing that to total points, but UConn is the most efficient scoring machine out there by a staggering margin, and they will be playing a statistically inefficient team at the other end of the scale. +430 vs. -272.

Playing the game is different than parsing stats, but I'm not betting against UConn, nor am I thinking this will be close. This could turn into a monumental butt-kicking.
 
reno tony said:
Why do I think there will be a bit of a revenge factor in the Baylor game. I think Kim brings in Griner late in the game to run the score up.
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I tell you the memory really is going---I thought Griner went pro and played Olymipics----a mind is terrible thing to lose--Dan Qualle was right!!!
 
DefenseBB said:
[QUOTE="JordyG, post: 2112160, member: 6819"....and this is the first time UCLA has seen this team. I got UConn by 30-35. and ND losing without Turner. Maryland by 20 over Oregon. The rest posed by Massey seems about right. But yeah, don't sleep on Quinnipiac.
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JordyG- I get the first time teams deal will UConn it's like drinking from a fire hose, however this UCLA team has talent and a descent coach. I think your a tad over- exuberant in the score. On ND, what about tOSU post players has you thinking that they can beat ND? They are still without Mavunga and they play no defense. I think with a few days of practice the MM will devise something. On the fly she has struggled to adjust but when able to pAlan, she's pretty good. I still have ND in this one.
I also am long on Oregon as I got to watch their games and their passing so while MD may win, I view that as a close game. And Q could shock the Gamecocks with their tenacity![/QUOTE]
And we all shall see.
 
Intpseeker said:
So, for :

As a team, UCLA has scored 2449 points on 2804 opportunities for a team NISE of -355. Compare this to UConn's 2982 points coming from 2705 opportunities or a team NISE of +277.
UCLA takes more shots and scores way fewer points than we do. I believe this is the least efficient team, in regard to NISE, whom we have played.

Their five top scorers combine for a NISE of -272, with Korver being the most efficient at -9, and Billings bringing up the rear with a -110.

If you look at UConn starters through last night:

KLS....... 523 opportunities and 709 points NISE = +186
Phee...... 532 opportunities and 688 points NISE = +156
Gabby..... 440 opportunities and 465 points NISE = +25
Kia....... 350 opportunities and 394 points NISE = +44
Saniya.... 233 opportunities and 252 points NISE = +19

That is a mind-blowing +430 NISE rating for the starters!

I understand that this a simple stat summing total FGA's with total FTA's, then comparing that to total points, but UConn is the most efficient scoring machine out there by a staggering margin, and they will be playing a statistically inefficient team at the other end of the scale. +430 vs. -272.

Playing the game is different than parsing stats, but I'm not betting against UConn, nor am I thinking this will be close. This could turn into a monumental butt-kicking.
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I for one am impressed. Can I get you to take a look at my taxes? ;)
 
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j66kicker said:
I saw UCLA play once in person - last regular season game, they spanked ASU. I didn't get the feeling they could keep up with UConn's crisp offensive execution and ball movement, or with our aggressive and disciplined defense. I think we could slice them and dice them in short order.

Canada spent a lot of time down on the floor - from selling fouls, and also just getting knocked around. She was about half the size of the next smallest player out there. We were laughing after a while - seemed like she was always dragging herself up off the ground.

Billings didn't seem that impressive, but maybe it was just that game. I was particularly unimpressed by her "sports diaper" look.
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If you followed Uconn last year and saw KLS, Gabby, Napheesa and Chong---you'd be writing--- anyone can beat them
The difference from last year is huge for Uconn---it would appear that UCLA too has improved. My opinion of Canada is a bit higher--no Moriah, but who is>
 
BroadwayVa said:
If you followed Uconn last year and saw KLS, Gabby, Napheesa and Chong---you'd be writing--- anyone can beat them
The difference from last year is huge for Uconn---it would appear that UCLA too has improved. My opinion of Canada is a bit higher--no Moriah, but who is>
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Well the game I saw UCLA play was about 3 weeks ago, so my opinion of them hasn't changed since then
 
Orangutan said:
Scr = actual score of the game, zeros for now as the games haven't started.

Margin = predicted margin, in Vegas betting line format. So, for example, -10.5 means you are "giving" 10.5 points to the house when betting on Maryland. If they win by 11+, your Maryland bet would win. If they win by 10 or less (or lose), your Maryland bet would lose.

Total = predicted sum of both teams' final scores, everything is done in half numbers again for betting purposes. Using the MD game again, the total is 155.5. So the "over" bet wins on a combine score of 156+ and the "under" wins on a combined score of 155 or less.
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Got it. Thanks very much.
 
j66kicker said:
Well the game I saw UCLA play was about 3 weeks ago, so my opinion of them hasn't changed since then
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\
The question for now is: Did your opinion of UConn Women change from clean up time last year ???
I don't disregard UCLA---but there are none in both sets that I would choose to disregard--maybe Q, but emotionally
I'd like them to shock the world as a male uconn player once said.
 
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BroadwayVa said:
A friend of mine in the IRS showed me your taxes---don't worry about them--your 700,000,000 loses 20 years ago is still working for you---no need to worry about the 154,000,000 you made this past year--you are legal.
Lucky for you I don't know anyone from the press.
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I don't see your humor.
 
1-of-the-6 said:
I can pronounce Yale. Really, I can.
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True story, if a trifle politically incorrect. My sister had just had her son and she and her husband, who is Hispanic, were visiting with my parents. Adults were sitting around, drinking wine and talking. Of course the conversation turns to the child's future.
My mom is startled when the dad states that "I want my son to go to jail!" Befuddled, wondering if we had had too much wine, mom says "Really? Why!?!" He replies "Its a great school 'Jail' , J-Yale University!" We all laughed for a long time over that one!
 
huskeynut said:
I think the UConn line is low. I would think 19.5 to 22.5.

SC - who knows. Coates is out. I wouldn't sleep on Quinnipiac.

The ND one may be a little big.
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I can't even begin to tell you how thrilled I would be to have a Quinnipiac win over South Carolina. There's nothing that would give me more satisfaction, as I think they are very much like their "super star", overrated. Not that Wilson isn't quite good but for her to be a finalist for the Wade is offensive because more deserving players were overlooked.
 
1-of-the-6 said:
I can pronounce Yale. Really, I can.
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Sure you can pronounce jYale---but can you speak it?? It comes in three accents Arkansan, Texan, Bostonian---
Rarely old Yankee Connecticut.
 
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Shenandoah said:
I watched the replay of the Quinnipiac/Miami game yesterday, and came away impressed with how Quinnipiac shares the ball. Reminds me of another team from Connecticut! If they can stay hot with the 3 ball, they have a chance at an upset. JMO...
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Quinnipiac = This year's dark horse. "For us, we don't have anything to lose. We're the underdog in this case even though we don't see ourselves as the underdog."

In their 29 wins this year, they only played one ranked team (#25 Oregon St.), and lost to them 75-60. But they finished their season strong, and won two games to get to the S16. A team that can play without fear is always dangerous. Why not? They have nothing to lose. No one predicted/projected them to make it this far. They did just beat #16 ranked Miami. They're on a roll, and playing their best basketball of the season. I'm not so sure Quinnipiac is the giant killer that's capable of taking down South Carolina Saturday, but I do think they can keep the game interesting for a while. If the game is still close after the 3rd quarter, the Bobcats just may have a puncher's chance of pulling this one out.
 
Orangutan said:
Yes, I believe defense is the main thing keeping her from getting more minutes.

When Nelson is at center, I don't think Boley is a good fit alongside her at 4. Nelson is strong but relatively immobile so I think Young's athleticism and leaping ability probably complements her better. That's my speculation as to why Boley didn't play much in the 2nd half against Purdue with Westbeld in foul trouble and Nelson ND's only option at center.

I think Boley will have to play more going forward. Without Turner, ND's offensive plan has to be to spread it out and bomb from 3 and Boley is a good 3-pt shooter.
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Orangutan - Do you think ND can win it all without Turner?
 
Carnac said:
Orangutan - Do you think ND can win it all without Turner?
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"Win it all" as in win the national championship? No.

I'd love for ND to win just one more game without Turner and would be over the moon if they could manage to make the Final Four without her.
 
The big question for the ND folks is: Without Turner, can they stop Mitchell's dribble penetration? My guess is no. I see her going off for 30-40 in a close game.

If ND's passing is sharp, they can slice and dice OSU. If they play Arike or Lindsay one-on-one ball, they will struggle.
 
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Carnac said:
Quinnipiac = This year's dark horse. "For us, we don't have anything to lose. We're the underdog in this case even though we don't see ourselves as the underdog."

In their 29 wins this year, they only played one ranked team (#25 Oregon St.), and lost to them 75-60. But they finished their season strong, and won two games to get to the S16. A team that can play without fear is always dangerous. Why not? They have nothing to lose. No one predicted/projected them to make it this far. They did just beat #16 ranked Miami. They're on a roll, and playing their best basketball of the season. I'm not so sure Quinnipiac is the giant killer that's capable of taking down South Carolina Saturday, but I do think they can keep the game interesting for a while. If the game is still close after the 3rd quarter, the Bobcats just may have a puncher's chance of pulling this one out.
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If Quinnipiac can shoot great from the 3pt line (maybe 12 of 30 or better), they may have a chance. When 1 team hits a lot of three's, I think there is a bit of psychological impulse (especially Cuevas) to try to match them 3 for 3 which is not SC's strong point. Long shot but it would be glorious. :rolleyes::D
 
Without question UConn is my favorite team and I want them to win the National Championship; however, if anyone is going to beat UConn - and I know some of you will consider this sacrilege - I want it to be Stanford.
 
huskeynut said:
I think the UConn line is low. I would think 19.5 to 22.5.

SC - who knows. Coates is out. I wouldn't sleep on Quinnipiac.

The ND one may be a little big.
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For those keeping score at home, this is what an 0-fer looks like.
 
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