March to Madness - Part Deux

[oldude]

The brackets are set, and the tournament is finally at hand. Most UConn fans have been anticipating this year’s Big Dance since about one minute after Morgan William’s shot in OT sunk the Huskies championship hopes last season. To the team’s credit, they approached this season, and will approach the tournament, with a “one game at a time” mentality that has always served them well. Yet again, UConn won “one game at a time” 32 times in a row, to complete another undefeated regular season and conference tournament, earning the #1 overall seed.

Heading into the tournament, we’re all hopeful that the Huskies win just one more game, six times in a row, to earn their unprecedented 12th national championship. With that goal in mind, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at each of the 6 rounds and what might be in store for the Huskies, should they run the table once more.

1st Round (Storrs) – St Francis is the only team in the tournament assured of playing the Huskies. Their coach and players will say all the right things about, “looking forward to the challenge of facing UConn.” Unfortunately, after almost two weeks off, heading into the tournament at home, UConn will be a supercharged version of themselves. St Francis will lose by 40+ pts, with UConn’s starters largely serving as cheerleaders during the 4th qtr.

2nd Round (Storrs) - While UConn will have a walk in the park for their 1st game, Miami and Quinnipiac will battle tooth and nail for the privilege to play the Huskies in the 2nd round. For the Bobcats from nearby Hamden, CT, it will be like a home game, with the enthusiastic support of not only their own fans, but Husky fans as well. Hopefully, Quinnipiac tops Miami. But no Sweet 16 Cinderella this year as the Huskies will win by 30+ in the 2nd round matchup.

Sweet 16 (Albany) – Just like WBA in Bridgeport, the Times Union Center in Albany is another one of UConn’s “home away from home” arenas. TUC will be sold out for the Regional tournament, with Husky fans already gathering up most of the tickets. There will be a handful of tickets set aside for each of the other 3 teams that make it to the Albany Regional. This year it appears that Dawn will do the complaining, like Brenda did last year. It’ll likely be a “battle of the dogs” between GA and UConn. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it’ll be their first game against the Huskies since Andy Landers coached, and as history has taught us, the first time you play UConn, it won’t be pretty. Huskies win by 20+.

Regional Final (Albany) – Once you get down to the Elite 8, all the pretenders are usually gone. Geno has said that the regional final is the hardest to win. UConn will likely meet up with SC for a 2nd time this season. While UConn handled SC in Columbia, the Gamecocks played their best basketball in the SEC tournament, and they should give the Huskies a battle for the Regional Championship. But this is one of those games where UConn’s ferocious defense and Gabby doing a little bit of everything, leads UConn to a double-digit victory and their 11th straight trip to the FF.

National Semifinal (Columbus) – While there’s typically an expectation that the “usual suspects” will make it to the FF, upsets do happen. With that said, it’s highly likely that UConn will face the winner of ND – Oregon. After losing 4 players to ACL’s this season, ND has been amazing. Both the Irish and the Ducks can score a lot of points, but I think the difference will be defense. Oregon has finally figured out how to play a little defense to go along with their potent offense, and I think that puts them in the FF over ND. Once there, they get to match up again with the Huskies, one round later than last year. Oregon is not a Cinderella this year. They’ll give the Huskies a much better game. In the end, Oregon will have no answer for UConn’s frontcourt of Pheesa, Gabby & Z.

Championship (Columbus) – Lots of good teams on the opposite side of the bracket, including MS St, Louisville, Baylor & TX. My picks to get to the FF are MS St and Louisville. TX can’t beat MS St and Baylor hasn’t beaten a really good team outside of the state of TX. MS St-Louisville will be a nail biter, but I see Durr & Hines-Allen being the difference. So that sets up a rematch of Louisville and UConn. Evidently, Walz and Geno have a side bet for a bottle of wine if this game happens (Big mistake by Walz). This one will be a battle, but as every Husky fan knows, UConn does not lose national championship games.

The maintenance crew at Gampel will need to get ready to hoist a 12th banner up in the rafters.

 

[bags27]

Great analysis as always, oldude, but with one devastatingly glaring error that upsets all your predictions:
I don't think they hoist banners. I think they lower them from the catwalks.

 

[Charliebball]

very well done analysis.................can I start complaining now about the UConn starters playing into the fourth quarter against St Francis............

 

[RegisteredUconn]

To the team’s credit, they approached this season, and will approach the tournament, with a “one game at a time” mentality that has always served them well. Yet again, UConn won “one game at a time” 32 times in a row, to complete another undefeated regular season and conference tournament, earning the #1 overall seed.

An excellent way to look at things. UConn has 32 consecutive one game winning streaks.

 

[oldude]

This is really a great bracket for UConn. The first two games in Storrs are big mismatches. The Huskies can "hold their powder" somewhat, allowing Gabby and Crystal more time off in practice and limit their minutes during the 1st weekend games if they choose to.

In Albany, the Huskies run into GA or Duke in the Sweet 16, neither of which will provide a strong challenge. SC and Wilson could be dangerous, but the Gamecocks & Dawn have never beaten UConn. Considering how easily the Huskies handled SC in Columbia, it's very hard to conceive of any way the Gamecocks can pull off what would be an even bigger upset than MS St's win last year.

Finally, UConn will have the best possible matchup in the national semifinal, probably against either ND or OR. Both teams are very good, but neither one strikes fear into the Huskies.

All of those big, talented and tough teams like TX, Baylor, MS St and Louisville have to fight it out on the other side of the bracket. Should UConn make it to the championship, they'll only have to beat one of them.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Our biggest roadblock is injuries. We don't know how bad Gabby's leg is after re-injuring it recently. And Coach Geno said that Crystal's shin splints have gotten worse. How is KLS's foot? Will that give her trouble again?

It's not the opposition, it's our health that is the biggest barrier.

 

[Geew1992]

Remember how well complaining about Uconn turned out for Maryland. I think SC should focus on the team infront of them. Or they may be short lived in the tournament.

 

[bags27]

Our biggest roadblock is injuries. We don't know how bad Gabby's leg is after re-injuring it recently. And Coach Geno said that Crystal's shin splints have gotten worse. How is KLS's foot? Will that give her trouble again? It's not the opposition, it's our health that is the biggest barrier.

wouldn't over-worry this:
1 Gabby's hip is a management issue. Didn't stop her from having a fantastic game last week.
2 Geno didn't exactly say Crystal's shin splints got worse: he said she had a bit of a set-back, meaning she got a bit better and then didn't. Again, a management issue.
3. Lou's foot is fine. Have we seen any problem with her mobility or playing time the past month? Wearing a brace and playing at the top of her game.

Something we will never hear Geno say in March: "The team's incredibly healthy right now. I have no concerns about their playing time or capacity to play at their highest level."

 

[CL82]

The brackets are set, and the tournament is finally at hand. Most UConn fans have been anticipating this year’s Big Dance since about one minute after Morgan William’s shot in OT sunk the Huskies championship hopes last season. To the team’s credit, they approached this season, and will approach the tournament, with a “one game at a time” mentality that has always served them well. Yet again, UConn won “one game at a time” 32 times in a row, to complete another undefeated regular season and conference tournament, earning the #1 overall seed.

Heading into the tournament, we’re all hopeful that the Huskies win just one more game, six times in a row, to earn their unprecedented 12th national championship. With that goal in mind, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at each of the 6 rounds and what might be in store for the Huskies, should they run the table once more.

1st Round (Storrs) – St Francis is the only team in the tournament assured of playing the Huskies. Their coach and players will say all the right things about, “looking forward to the challenge of facing UConn.” Unfortunately, after almost two weeks off, heading into the tournament at home, UConn will be a supercharged version of themselves. St Francis will lose by 40+ pts, with UConn’s starters largely serving as cheerleaders during the 4th qtr.

2nd Round (Storrs) - While UConn will have a walk in the park for their 1st game, Miami and Quinnipiac will battle tooth and nail for the privilege to play the Huskies in the 2nd round. For the Bobcats from nearby Hamden, CT, it will be like a home game, with the enthusiastic support of not only their own fans, but Husky fans as well. Hopefully, Quinnipiac tops Miami. But no Sweet 16 Cinderella this year as the Huskies will win by 30+ in the 2nd round matchup.

Sweet 16 (Albany) – Just like WBA in Bridgeport, the Times Union Center in Albany is another one of UConn’s “home away from home” arenas. TUC will be sold out for the Regional tournament, with Husky fans already gathering up most of the tickets. There will be a handful of tickets set aside for each of the other 3 teams that make it to the Albany Regional. This year it appears that Dawn will do the complaining, like Brenda did last year. It’ll likely be a “battle of the dogs” between GA and UConn. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it’ll be their first game against the Huskies since Andy Landers coached, and as history has taught us, the first time you play UConn, it won’t be pretty. Huskies win by 20+.

Regional Final (Albany) – Once you get down to the Elite 8, all the pretenders are usually gone. Geno has said that the regional final is the hardest to win. UConn will likely meet up with SC for a 2nd time this season. While UConn handled SC in Columbia, the Gamecocks played their best basketball in the SEC tournament, and they should give the Huskies a battle for the Regional Championship. But this is one of those games where UConn’s ferocious defense and Gabby doing a little bit of everything, leads UConn to a double-digit victory and their 11th straight trip to the FF.

National Semifinal (Columbus) – While there’s typically an expectation that the “usual suspects” will make it to the FF, upsets do happen. With that said, it’s highly likely that UConn will face the winner of ND – Oregon. After losing 4 players to ACL’s this season, ND has been amazing. Both the Irish and the Ducks can score a lot of points, but I think the difference will be defense. Oregon has finally figured out how to play a little defense to go along with their potent offense, and I think that puts them in the FF over ND. Once there, they get to match up again with the Huskies, one round later than last year. Oregon is not a Cinderella this year. They’ll give the Huskies a much better game. In the end, Oregon will have no answer for UConn’s frontcourt of Pheesa, Gabby & Z.

Championship (Columbus) – Lots of good teams on the opposite side of the bracket, including MS St, Louisville, Baylor & TX. My picks to get to the FF are MS St and Louisville. TX can’t beat MS St and Baylor hasn’t beaten a really good team outside of the state of TX. MS St-Louisville will be a nail biter, but I see Durr & Hines-Allen being the difference. So that sets up a rematch of Louisville and UConn. Evidently, Walz and Geno have a side bet for a bottle of wine if this game happens (Big mistake by Walz). This one will be a battle, but as every Husky fan knows, UConn does not lose national championship games.

The maintenance crew at Gampel will need to get ready to hoist a 12th banner up in the rafters.

Geesh, how about a spoiler alert! Thanks for ruining March Madness for me... <mutters>...jerk.

Actually, I enjoyed that analysis. Thanks, great post.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

wouldn't over-worry this:
1 Gabby's hip is a management issue. Didn't stop her from having a fantastic game last week.
2 Geno didn't exactly say Crystal's shin splints got worse: he said she had a bit of a set-back, meaning she got a bit better and then didn't. Again, a management issue.
3. Lou's foot is fine. Have we seen any problem with her mobility or playing time the past month? Wearing a brace and playing at the top of her game.

Something we will never hear Geno say in March: "The team's incredibly healthy right now. I have no concerns about their playing time or capacity to play at their highest level."

I think you got the injury concerns correct Bags27. Geno's comments yesterday were "intentional." He's not going to say every one is 100%...but rather keep a little uncertainty out there for opposition to wonder about. And I did not hear Danger "got worse"... but she had a "set back"...which I took to mean she was recovering, but 3 games in 3 days slowed the recovery....but that's all in the way the receiver takes Geno's comment. Sure, injuries could derail everything, but that's true for every team. Geno said just that in his remarks... "every team has these same issues this time of year."

I am confident Crystal will play great and as long as she is needed. I have no doubt that Gabby will have a superior tournament and play exceptionally well, even if it's on one leg. And, I am confident Lou is in great shape with the ankle/foot issue... she has shown no problems since the new ankle brace. She has no visible limp, no limitations in movement and she runs that floor as well as ever before. ALL Three of them...and the rest of the team are on a mission, and they will play through anything possible to get the job done.

GO HUSKIES

 

[willingtonfan]

Oldude, your analysis is spot on. When I looked at the bracket, my initial thought was that the committee got this just about right. UGA, our 4 seed, is the 17th ranked team in the Coaches poll, which is about right. South Carolina, our 2 seed, is the 7th ranked team.

I think if this team focuses on the business at hand, as you said, one game at a time, they will be okay. And I will be doing some road tripping... (hotel reservations and driving itineraries for both Albany and Columbus are made and sitting in a file ready to be deployed)

Looking forward to a hopeful 12th national championship, and to seeing it in person myself for the 6th time (went in 2000, 2002, 2010, 2014 and 2016).

As they say, enjoy the madness! I will be definitely staying for the second game on Saturday to root for Quinnipiac (went to grad school there). I hope lots of Husky fans will do likewise; as a fellow Connecticut-located team, they deserve the support of home state fans, even if they are there for other reasons. Ms. Fabry has done a great job bringing the team from a perennial bottom of a lousy conference team to now being in the NCAA tournament two years in a row, even reaching the Sweet Sixteen. You have no idea what a big deal that is for a little school like Quinnipiac, other than that it forces people to actually learn how to pronounce Quinnipiac! So I'm hoping for a second-round matchup with them.

 

[oldude]

Remember how well complaining about Uconn turned out for Maryland. I think SC should focus on the team infront of them. Or they may be short lived in the tournament.

One of my most enjoyable experiences last season was sitting at Webster Bank Arena, watching the upstart Oregon Ducks take down Brenda's Turtles in the Sweet 16 after all of her complaining. Immediately following the game, Turtle fans couldn't unload their tickets to the Elite 8 game fast enough. Fortunately, there were many kind and generous Husky fans who were all too happy to relieve the MD fans of their tickets for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Bigpetunia]

The brackets are set, and the tournament is finally at hand. Most UConn fans have been anticipating this year’s Big Dance since about one minute after Morgan William’s shot in OT sunk the Huskies championship hopes last season. To the team’s credit, they approached this season, and will approach the tournament, with a “one game at a time” mentality that has always served them well. Yet again, UConn won “one game at a time” 32 times in a row, to complete another undefeated regular season and conference tournament, earning the #1 overall seed.

Heading into the tournament, we’re all hopeful that the Huskies win just one more game, six times in a row, to earn their unprecedented 12th national championship. With that goal in mind, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at each of the 6 rounds and what might be in store for the Huskies, should they run the table once more.

1st Round (Storrs) – St Francis is the only team in the tournament assured of playing the Huskies. Their coach and players will say all the right things about, “looking forward to the challenge of facing UConn.” Unfortunately, after almost two weeks off, heading into the tournament at home, UConn will be a supercharged version of themselves. St Francis will lose by 40+ pts, with UConn’s starters largely serving as cheerleaders during the 4th qtr.

2nd Round (Storrs) - While UConn will have a walk in the park for their 1st game, Miami and Quinnipiac will battle tooth and nail for the privilege to play the Huskies in the 2nd round. For the Bobcats from nearby Hamden, CT, it will be like a home game, with the enthusiastic support of not only their own fans, but Husky fans as well. Hopefully, Quinnipiac tops Miami. But no Sweet 16 Cinderella this year as the Huskies will win by 30+ in the 2nd round matchup.

Sweet 16 (Albany) – Just like WBA in Bridgeport, the Times Union Center in Albany is another one of UConn’s “home away from home” arenas. TUC will be sold out for the Regional tournament, with Husky fans already gathering up most of the tickets. There will be a handful of tickets set aside for each of the other 3 teams that make it to the Albany Regional. This year it appears that Dawn will do the complaining, like Brenda did last year. It’ll likely be a “battle of the dogs” between GA and UConn. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it’ll be their first game against the Huskies since Andy Landers coached, and as history has taught us, the first time you play UConn, it won’t be pretty. Huskies win by 20+.

Regional Final (Albany) – Once you get down to the Elite 8, all the pretenders are usually gone. Geno has said that the regional final is the hardest to win. UConn will likely meet up with SC for a 2nd time this season. While UConn handled SC in Columbia, the Gamecocks played their best basketball in the SEC tournament, and they should give the Huskies a battle for the Regional Championship. But this is one of those games where UConn’s ferocious defense and Gabby doing a little bit of everything, leads UConn to a double-digit victory and their 11th straight trip to the FF.

National Semifinal (Columbus) – While there’s typically an expectation that the “usual suspects” will make it to the FF, upsets do happen. With that said, it’s highly likely that UConn will face the winner of ND – Oregon. After losing 4 players to ACL’s this season, ND has been amazing. Both the Irish and the Ducks can score a lot of points, but I think the difference will be defense. Oregon has finally figured out how to play a little defense to go along with their potent offense, and I think that puts them in the FF over ND. Once there, they get to match up again with the Huskies, one round later than last year. Oregon is not a Cinderella this year. They’ll give the Huskies a much better game. In the end, Oregon will have no answer for UConn’s frontcourt of Pheesa, Gabby & Z.

Championship (Columbus) – Lots of good teams on the opposite side of the bracket, including MS St, Louisville, Baylor & TX. My picks to get to the FF are MS St and Louisville. TX can’t beat MS St and Baylor hasn’t beaten a really good team outside of the state of TX. MS St-Louisville will be a nail biter, but I see Durr & Hines-Allen being the difference. So that sets up a rematch of Louisville and UConn. Evidently, Walz and Geno have a side bet for a bottle of wine if this game happens (Big mistake by Walz). This one will be a battle, but as every Husky fan knows, UConn does not lose national championship games.

The maintenance crew at Gampel will need to get ready to hoist a 12th banner up in the rafters.

I like your analysis, and mostly concur. My only quibble is that Baylor, even absent Kristy Wallace, is, in my opinion, being underestimated. Their two bigs, and the great passing game that has developed between them, create a unique matchup problem for all potential opponents. I think UConn wins #12, but I think they beat the Bears in the final to do it.

 

[oldude]

I like your analysis, and mostly concur. My only quibble is that Baylor, even absent Kristy Wallace, is, in my opinion, being underestimated. Their two bigs, and the great passing game that has developed between them, create a unique matchup problem for all potential opponents. I think UConn wins #12, but I think they beat the Bears in the final to do it.

Your assessment of Baylor appears to be right in line with Rebecca, who was on ESPN this morning. Wallace was a huge loss for the Lady Bears, and while their freshmen played well in the Big12 tournament, they're still freshmen.

I'm still not a believer, until Baylor beats a really good team on the road. They'll have that chance when they will likely have to beat Louisville in Lexington, KY in order to make it to the FF, followed by a potential matchup with Vic's MS St team in Columbus. If Baylor gets past both of those games, then I will most certainly be a believer.

 

[Kaizen]

Go UConn ~~~

 

[Bronx23]

Great thread and analysis.
I agree with quite a few of you that this was a very favorable draw for U Conn.
With having SC in the elite eight to get to the final four, it couldn't be better. While I think Dawn is a good coach, I don't think she's more than that. I literally can't see her coming up with a game plan that come close to the preparation and adjustments Geno, CD and the coaching staff make.
Assuming a semi-final game against the winner of ND vs Oregon, we would be faced with two of the excellent coaches in the game. MM is I believe the 2nd best coach in WBB and has done a phenomenal job. She and they will bust their butts to make this a competitive game but as the game might develop don't think they have the legs to stay with us deep into the 4th period. Oregon is a young and very exciting team to watch. Sabrina is a marvel. It remains to be seen if they can get over this hump, which is essential to their development over the next two years. I still can not pick a winner of this game, but don't believe Oregon plays strong enough defense to stay with U Conn.
That brings us to the finals, which we all know Geno & CD have never lost. I don't think that will start now. Hope for MS so we can do the re-adjusting this time, and beat them comfortably. I surely see no problem with Louisville. And as so many of you have stated, none of us really know how good or over-rated Baylor is. If they can beat Louisville and MS to meet us in the championship, then they are pretty darn good. I think our defensive pressure would force the guards to do things they are not ready for yet. It would force their offense to start out further from the basket than they usually do. It might be competitive or a blowout but no doubt we will win a 12th NC.
Only thing that can stop us is a big injury. I don't even think some foul trouble will cause more than a little agina.
Bronx23

 

[Huskee11]

All of those big, talented and tough teams like TX, Baylor, MS St and Louisville have to fight it out on the other side of the bracket. Should UConn make it to the championship, they'll only have to beat one of them.

One of my most enjoyable experiences last season was sitting at Webster Bank Arena, watching the upstart Oregon Ducks take down Brenda's Turtles in the Sweet 16 after all of her complaining.

Happy to say I`m on the same wavelength Oldude, especially with these two quotes above. First thing I was looking for last night was where Miss St, Texas and Baylor ended up, and happy we will only have to play one of them at most. Those games tend to be physical, grind it out, possession by possession struggles where foul trouble can be (and has been) big trouble.

Also loved that Oregon Maryland game and found Oregon to be a very easy team to root for. I think they have a very good chance of taking down Notre Dame so we may be facing the Ducks again this year. If so, it will be much closer than the 90-52 blowout in Bridgeport.

I also think whoever wins the USF Florida State matchup could give South Carolina a tough game in Albany in the Round of 16. Unlikely, but not inconceivable we will face USF for a fourth time. If it ends up being South Carolina, we seem to have the ability to keep Wilson in check and I don`t see the SC supporting cast scoring enough to keep it close.

You always have to plan on beating quality teams to win it all, although the path taken in 2015-2016 was about as easy as it could have been. There are quality teams in UConn`s way, but I don`t think UConn fans have any reason to complain about the brackets.