Magic Number

[YoungFree]

It appears the men's basketball team has a magic number to win basketball games.

If you include Ollie's last three seasons and the first 15 games this year, if the good guys score 72 points in a game they are 42-8 (.840 winning %). They score 71 and below they are 22-44 (.333 winning %).

A stat that highlights the improvement Hurley is having on the team (if you trust stats and believe it is Hurley and not Adams exceptional play this year...sarcasm intended) can be seen by the team's avg points in both victories and losses the past few seasons:

2015-16: W-78.28 L-61.27
2016-17: W-72 L-59.29
2017-18: W-72.64 L-64.83
2018-19: W-87.11 L-65.67

Under Hurley the good guys are markedly better in their wins (+15 from 2016-17) and still slightly better when they lose games. However, the good guys are 8-2 when they score 72 points and a miserly 1-4 when they don't...keeping with what appears to be the Husky magic number of 72.

Just thought this was interesting.

 

[SubbaBub]

Not getting beat or winning close against bad teams is the noticable improvement. Still coming up short against the Top 100, which is who you need to beat to get into the dance.

If waiting until the 2nd half to fall off can be counted as an improvement, there is that.

The most frustrating thing is the lack of awareness of time, score, and situation.

When getting an easy bucket is the means to seize or stave off a change in momentum, the circus always seems to show up.

 

[YoungFree]

Not getting beat or winning close against bad teams is the noticable improvement. Still coming up short against the Top 100, which is who you need to beat to get into the dance.

If waiting until the 2nd half to fall off can be counted as an improvement, there is that.

The most frustrating thing is the lack of awareness of time, score, and situation.

When getting an easy bucket is the means to seize or stave off a change in momentum, the circus always seems to show up.

Yeah, the second halves of our losses have been terrible. Not sure who is more to blame on that...the team or the coach for not making adjustments. It has been the tale of two halves in all our losses this year. However, for those stat crunching folks, 72 looks like our sweet spot.

 

[ucawn]

Wouldn’t be upset or surprised if we went back to uptempo offense and turning defense into offense. We don’t generate anything playing slow, hence low scoring past 3 games. They waste so much time in the half court O, they just get the shot clock low and try and do something. I’d like to see them attack from the onset and not these dribble handoffs around the perimeter for 15 seconds. I know it also has to do with no one scoring but the 3 guards. But it seemed to win us games.

 

[Huskybass]

I have always believed that with our weak frontcourt we need to up-tempo the game and take the advantage away from the other team in terms of the down-low presence. That's why I firmly believe we need to score over 70 points and up-tempo things to have a legitimate chance at beating the better teams. This shouldn't be all that difficult for the coaching staff to grasp and they should look to push the ball at every opportunity.

 

[YoungFree]

I have always believed that with our weak frontcourt we need to up-tempo the game and take the advantage away from the other team in terms of the down-low presence. That's why I firmly believe we need to score over 70 points and up-tempo things to have a legitimate chance at beating the better teams. This shouldn't be all that difficult for the coaching staff to grasp and they should look to push the ball at every opportunity.

I think that is something Hurley has wanted to do however, Jalen turns the ball over more than I do sitting on the couch. And the turnovers in general have been abysmal. It is hard to be up tempo if you turn the ball over as much as we do. With all the guards we have...one being touted by announcers every game as "one of the best in the country", we should be doing much better.

 

[JB75]

I agree with @ucawn’s sentiment. Hurley took the keys away try to slow down the offense after the nova game - our offense is now worse - we can’t play slow I’d rather have us play kind a frenzied and up-tempo - score in the high 70s low 80s and have a chance to win - there still will be turnovers galore - but watching them score low 50s and have no shot to win games at all is just not the answer.

 

[YoungFree]

I agree with @ucawn’s sentiment. Hurley took the keys away try to slow down the offense after the nova game - our offense is now worse - we can’t play slow I’d rather have us play kind a frenzied and up-tempo - score in the high 70s low 80s and have a chance to win - there still will be turnovers galore - but watching them score low 50s and have no shot to win games at all is just not the answer.

I feel the guys want to run too...perhaps it is a lesson he is trying to teach them in the whole realm of "culture." - You guys don't control the ball and play like UConn then I'm gonna control the ball by slowing the game down until you prove you can control the ball.

Just a wild guess though.

 

[JB75]

Yeah I get it. But.... . Last two games feel eerily similar to watching last years team. I understand doing it to teach a lesson and maybe give the keys back to them soon but to me it seems like they played more competitive against the big boys and got into a decent flow when they were running around like crazy as opposee to the stagnant slow down ugly offense we’ve been accustomed to the past few years. Obviously Hurley is the coach and I trust him and he knows way more than I do but maybe looking back on it -Monday morning quarterback a he could’ve waited to see how they wud play the first two conference games before he took the keys away. I know I’m grabbing at straws just trying to feel better about the whole situation LOL

 

[August_West]

I think that is something Hurley has wanted to do however, Jalen turns the ball over more than I do sitting on the couch. And the turnovers in general have been abysmal. It is hard to be up tempo if you turn the ball over as much as we do. With all the guards we have...one being touted by announcers every game as "one of the best in the country", we should be doing much better.

except we turn the ball over as much in the 1/2 court. Jalen and everyone else.

Id rather we did that running because we've been abysmal ever since Hurley pulled the reigns. Mind scratching.

 

[YoungFree]

except we turn the ball over as much in the 1/2 court. Jalen and everyone else.

Id rather we did that running because we've been abysmal ever since Hurley pulled the reigns. Mind scratching.

We are averaging 12.66 turnovers in wins and 16.83 in losing battles. However, the last 3 games we have been averaging 16 per game...which is still 4 short of our worst game...a 20 turnover game against Syracuse. First 9 games we only averaged 13.44 per game and since we have averaged 15.66. I am not entirely sure it is the tempo....the guys are getting sloppy with the ball...just plain sloppy.

Shooting on the other hand...MAJOR drop-off:

49.03% FG in first 9 games and 35.31% from 3
37.26% FG in last 3 games and 32.06% from 3

When we win...we are shooting 49.83% from the field and 38.36% from 3
Losing...39.96% and 29.70%

All points back to the mystical #72.....

 

[jibsey]

We were a terrible shooting team last year and added Gilbert who has actually boosted us this season. What that means is that we are a terrible shooting team this year especially from the perimeter. Jalen is not making outside shots. Smith not very good and neither is Adams or Wilson. Polley in a slump but has potential to turn around. Gotta recruit shooters.

 

[Kathy]

I think that is something Hurley has wanted to do however, Jalen turns the ball over more than I do sitting on the couch. And the turnovers in general have been abysmal. It is hard to be up tempo if you turn the ball over as much as we do. With all the guards we have...one being touted by announcers every game as "one of the best in the country", we should be doing much better.

Jalen turnover numbets:
Sophomore 3.1
Junior 2.9
This year 3.1
Not much change

 

[Hogoff]

Yeah I get it. But.... . Last two games feel eerily similar to watching last years team. I understand doing it to teach a lesson and maybe give the keys back to them soon but to me it seems like they played more competitive against the big boys and got into a decent flow when they were running around like crazy as opposee to the stagnant slow down ugly offense we’ve been accustomed to the past few years. Obviously Hurley is the coach and I trust him and he knows way more than I do but maybe looking back on it -Monday morning quarterback a he could’ve waited to see how they wud play the first two conference games before he took the keys away. I know I’m grabbing at straws just trying to feel better about the whole situation LOL

I also think teams know we can only score when we run, so they don’t let us run.

 

[whaler11]

This is a crime against math.

 

[ToolzieFan]

Jalen turnover numbets:
Sophomore 3.1
Junior 2.9
This year 3.1
Not much change

True, but his minutes are down considerably from last year - from 38.1 to 30.3. Here are his turnover rates per 100 possessions:
15-16: 4.3
16-17: 5.3
17-18: 4.5
18-19: 5.5

Just out of curiosity, I looked at Vital’s numbers. His turnovers per 100 possessions are way up:
16-17: 2.8
17-18: 3.3
18-19: 5.6

 

[AdamaNation]

I have always believed that with our weak frontcourt we need to up-tempo the game and take the advantage away from the other team in terms of the down-low presence. That's why I firmly believe we need to score over 70 points and up-tempo things to have a legitimate chance at beating the better teams. This shouldn't be all that difficult for the coaching staff to grasp and they should look to push the ball at every opportunity.

Didn’t we pull back on this due to the extraordinary high amount of uncontested turnovers? I would assume we should play what makes sense. But with no consistent shooting poor inside play. Scant ball movement or spacing. Inability to finish at the rim. And sketchy free throw shooting, I feel like there is no answer. Our approach has been analyzed since the 2nd half vs Florida in the FF. We are going to play small ball due to our weak bigs. Hurley plays the same game. We have changed nothing since 2014 in style with either new talent or leadership. The single biggest change is 0 rim protection. We have always had one or two guys averaging more than two seats a game. Now we are excited about avgs of 1.5. We aren’t turning anyone over because they can work us through the possession and dump it down or get hacked. You see this with all this the help on ball screens and cutters. The guards have to run the offense and attack anchor the defense. It’s a nightmare.

 

[YoungFree]

Jalen turnover numbets:
Sophomore 3.1
Junior 2.9
This year 3.1
Not much change

Per 40 minute average:
Freshman 2.9
Sophomore 3.5
Junior 3.0
Senior 4.0

Per 100 possession average:
Freshman 4.3
Sophomore 5.3
Junior 4.5
Senior 5.5

He is averaging 5 turnovers the last 3 games.....he is sloppy.

 

[YoungFree]

True, but his minutes are down considerably from last year - from 38.1 to 30.3. Here are his turnover rates per 100 possessions:
15-16: 4.3
16-17: 5.3
17-18: 4.5
18-19: 5.5

Just out of curiosity, I looked at Vital’s numbers. His turnovers per 100 possessions are way up:
16-17: 2.8
17-18: 3.3
18-19: 5.6

Sloppy all around

 

[YoungFree]

Twas a little sketchy there at 71 against SMU. But we hit the magic number and moved to 43-8 when we score 72....MAGIC NUMBER