Luck

[OkaForPrez]

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

UConn is 338th in this metric out of 351 teams currently in college basketball.

 

[Inyatkin]

I think that means we don't Know How to Win.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

UConn is 338th in this metric out of 351 teams currently in college basketball.

"Bad luck is the residue of playing 11 deep in the first half against early season high majors."
With apologies to Branch Rickey

 

[TasteofUConn]

All respect to above posters, not a slam, but . . .

Definition of "Bad Luck":
Imaginary force cited by teams who take the escalator with fewer than ten toes in to explain why they lose.

 

[temery]

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

UConn is 338th in this metric out of 351 teams currently in college basketball.

Sounds like, "record against the spread," or whatever it's called in gambling.

 

[OkaForPrez]

This is the conversation I wanted to start. I'm not saying its pixies and gnomes, I'm saying that on a possession by possession basis we're more efficient than our record would indicate. Which means all of the above I think.

I also believe it indicates a likelihood to recover well from here forward.

 

[Leebo]

All respect to above posters, not a slam, but . . .

Definition of "Bad Luck":
Imaginary force cited by teams who take the escalator with fewer than ten toes in to explain why they lose.

So you don't like the name of this stat, apparently. It still exists, but we can call it something else if it makes you happy.

 

[bobbygt]

As the visionary Billy Packer once prophetically said during a certain game in 2004, "Those statistical averages will eventually average out."

I'm just going to relax and wait for the luck to turn our way (while drinking some strange brew).

 

[August_West]

As the visionary Billy Packer once prophetically said during a certain game in 2004, "Those statistical averages will eventually average out."

ah. I miss Fudgie.

By the way. Chris Smiths crossover dribble is illegal.

 

[Brad Palmer]

The reality is that at the end of all 3 of our losses, they weren't games we "should have won", meaning we didn't blow any of the games. Obviously, we should have/could have played better but 'Cuse is really the only one we can kick ourselves over. Before the season, most of realistic fans had the team going somewhere around 25-6/24-7, so we're not in dire straits yet. The key will be avoiding those upset road losses against the Houstons of the world. Lose to both Texas and G'town and it will be starting to smell like last year. Keep the faith! (And pray for some inside scoring.)

 

[Kitaman]

Some athletes/teams make their own luck.

 

[Palatine]

"Luck tends to follow speed." -Paul Bear Bryant.

 

[Tenspro2002]

"You are what your record says you are." - Bill Parcells

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

"Tenspro2002 is generally a wet blanket." - BigErnMcCracken

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

UConn is still only .26 years above the D-1 avg (or close to that) when taking into consideration the team experience dynamic (even with Miller/Gibbs). I am still buying stock in Hamilton/Adams going forward this year even though Hamilton may be closer to his ceiling (for this year) than JA.

 

[Tenspro2002]

"Tenspro2002 is generally a wet blanket." - BigErnMcCracken

I actually got a good chuckle out of this.

 

[imno1]

You need more than Luck. Just ask the Colts

 

[JMick]

we were top 5 in "luck" rating during the 2014 run and have been bottom of the league the last two years. I don't understand it, but the way the stat is calculated shows it pretty clearly.

 

[Paesano]

Talent gets good stats and wins a lot of games but truly great players win championships. They tend to simply have that higher gear or a will to win. It is an intangible that could be called luck as much as anything else. Some have it, some don't.

 

[Chin Diesel]

99% of good luck is preparation and getting to the right spot at the right time.

 

[Leebo]

It's easiest to think about it in its most extreme forms.

Take two hypothetical teams that go undefeated and winless, respectively. Their margin in each game is just 1 point.

On the scale of 40 minutes of basketball, think of all the tiny things that can happen that are unrelated to skill. The exact way a ball bounces in every given situation is not under the players' control much of the time.

The winless team isn't nearly as feckless as their record suggests.
The undefeated team isn't nearly as dominant as their record suggests.

It's measurable.

This guy is calling that measurement "luck," but you could call it "expected win differential" or something and it would be the same thing.

 

[Kembacity]

As the visionary Billy Packer once prophetically said during a certain game in 2004, "Those statistical averages will eventually average out."

I'm just going to relax and wait for the luck to turn our way (while drinking some strange brew).

Yeah I'm on board, if you don't admit that luck plays a role in sports in general, you're probably eagerly awaiting the opportunity to vote for Donald Trump. In 2011 and 2014, we got where we got and won because the guys played great and hit amazing shots when they needed to, and luck won out. Luck on 50/50 balls, friendly bounces on the rim, foul calls, everything had to go right for us to end up with those 2 rings. As a result, we get the bad basketball god luck sometimes. Last season felt like that a lot at times, and this season we've had a bit of it, but I think the pendulum swings back the other way before the end of this season

 

[CTBasketball]

Not luck. Luck is Kemba Walker's 3-pt heave against Texas. Or running into a Florida team in 2014 who's point guard can't dribble.

The team needs to learn how to win. This is evident after watching all 3 losses. Chaos in the final 2 minutes.

 

[RipCity]

Not luck. Luck is Kemba Walker's 3-pt heave against Texas. Or running into a Florida team in 2014 who's point guard can't dribble.

The team needs to learn how to win. This is evident after watching all 3 losses. Chaos in the final 2 minutes.

More like chaos in the first 20 minutes IMO.

 

[CTBasketball]

More like chaos in the first 20 minutes IMO.

Its like a sandwich with two slices of chaos bread.