I watched the first half of the Missouri State v Miami game on Thursday. As
@UConnStats mentioned, Miami has a poor frontcourt and Missouri State tried to bully their way on the offensive end, feeding Gage Prim, a 6'8 250 load, on the low block and he dominated with 18 points in just 23 minutes. I'd do the same with Carlton.
Miami is all about their starting 1-3 trio of Lykes/Vasiljevic/McGusty who are all very good players. Miami wins when these three hit shots. Wong and Beverley are talented freshmen, but not playing much just yet. Vasiljevic is the real deal and is a smart, strong 2-guard with a good outside shot, but is weak defensively while McGusty is a good driver, better defensively, but a poorer outside shooter. Similar to Buffalo's Ronaldo Segu, Chris Lykes is an undersized PG with electric quickness and shiftiness, but inconsistent outside shooter.
Miami's disparity between frontcourt and backcourt talent should be a coup for Carlton because he should bully his way on the low block while having an easier assignment on the defensive end with Miami's frontcourt trio of Miller/Waardenburg/Gak combining for 12.7 ppg in 59.9 mpg (oof). Shooting FTs at a combined 29.4 % (!) rate, it's also a good game to use Whaley's five fouls if these guys get open looks under the basket.
As long as Miami isn't hot on the perimeter, UConn should have a good chance in this one.
