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Local NBA television ratings

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whaler11

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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2014/04/21/Media/NBA-RSNs.aspx

Quick thoughts:

1. It's amazing how few homes watch local NBA telecasts. Only 4 teams average over 100k households. Charlotte went up 33% and still isn't a three quarters of one point.

2. It's hard to see how this model works much longer. Houston's RSN is in bankrupty, there have to be more coming - it can't take the loss of too many subscribers before the math stops working.
 
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Well, for one thing you can't have bad teams in all your major markets and expect much. Especially in markets where there is competition for both the entertainment dollar and the sports dollar. The LA, New York and Chicago sports fans have alternatives if the local NBA team is awful...Then add the fact that regular season professional basketball can be pretty predictable, and for the most part pretty meaningless when teams can make the playoffs with losing records, and more than half the teams make the playoffs. There are too many teams and I would argue too many games, too. hard to imagine anyone but a huge fan getting excited to see Toronto vs Memphis on a Wednesday night in February. Not to pick on those teams in particular, but they have limited history limited tradition and if you are, say a Knicks fan or a Celtics or Bulls or Lakers fan, those are meaningless games.
 

whaler11

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Well, for one thing you can't have bad teams in all your major markets and expect much. Especially in markets where there is competition for both the entertainment dollar and the sports dollar. The LA, New York and Chicago sports fans have alternatives if the local NBA team is awful...Then add the fact that regular season professional basketball can be pretty predictable, and for the most part pretty meaningless when teams can make the playoffs with losing records, and more than half the teams make the playoffs. There are too many teams and I would argue too many games, too. hard to imagine anyone but a huge fan getting excited to see Toronto vs Memphis on a Wednesday night in February. Not to pick on those teams in particular, but they have limited history limited tradition and if you are, say a Knicks fan or a Celtics or Bulls or Lakers fan, those are meaningless games.

Which is sort of the point. How can cable continue to pass such expensive contracts to their full subscriber base when so few are actually watching.
 
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It was a down year for the Knicks and Lakers. If it stays 20% below normal for 2-3 years then maybe a change will happen. The Bulls were only down 3% more than the entire league so they're barely worth mentioning considering they lost Rose and Deng.

The Knicks were a train-wreck the entire year, it was painful to watch. Didn't matter that they were still in playoff contention going in to the final week of the season as the article mentions. The Lakers were awful in addition to not having Kobe. Who in their right mind would waste time watching that product?

I'm surprised Boston wasn't mentioned, I'd be interested to see what their figures are.
 

whaler11

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It was a down year for the Knicks, Lakers and the Bulls lost Rose and Deng. If it stays 20% below normal for 2-3 years then maybe a change will happen.

I'm surprised Boston wasn't mentioned, I'd be interested to see what their figures are.

You think the cable industry is immune from what happened to newspapers, book publishing and the music industry?

This might be the most obvious bubble in economic history.

The ratings could triple and it's still a small fraction of people's viewing being subsidized by the masses.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens.
 
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And there aren't dozens of other channels in the same situation - a small audience being subsidized by the masses? That's the cable TV industry in a nutshell. People have been complaining about it forever.

A loss of subscribers vs low ratings are two different things, the article mentioned nothing about those local networks losing subscribers or fear of bankruptcy. Houston's RSN is available to only 40% of the Houston metro area, they never reached agreements with DirecTV, Dish or U-Verse and it sounds like management of the network has been a huge clusterfuck from Day 1. Seems like more of an isolated incident than the norm, I'm not sure we should be expecting more of the same from other RSNs.

It's an obvious bubble but it's significantly more complicated than newsprint/books/music. The cable industry has a much stronger position since the threat of replacement is also controlled by them as ISPs, especially if net neutrality goes away (which is essentially the cable industry's safety net). A la carte streaming services will be great for consumers but the Netflixes and Hulus of the world are going to be paying out the arse to ISPs if cable TV ever dies (unless Google Fiber starts getting laid out at break-neck speed). That cost will likely trickle down to the consumers thus making a la carte services less attractive and more expensive than they theoretically are today.

There is also no alternative to cable if you're a sports fan. Illegally sharing MP3s was a lot different than illegally streaming a sports game. The quality sucks and it's unreliable. To get legitimate streaming like ESPN3.com you have to have a cable TV deal, services like NBA League Pass blackout local games so they're useless as a replacement if you're trying to watching your local team.

The WWE's network is hopefully a glimpse of the future for all television and sports content but I think we're quite a ways off from that.
 
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The thing that is shocking to me though is the number of households. the New York Knicks only have 163,000 viewers? The Lakers 122,000 households? That seems crazy to me. The 2 biggest media markets in the country and that's it?
 

whaler11

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And there aren't dozens of other channels in the same situation - a small audience being subsidized by the masses? That's the cable TV industry in a nutshell. People have been complaining about it forever.

A loss of subscribers vs low ratings are two different things, the article mentioned nothing about those local networks losing subscribers or fear of bankruptcy. Houston's RSN is available to only 40% of the Houston metro area, they never reached agreements with DirecTV, Dish or U-Verse and it sounds like management of the network has been a huge cluster from Day 1. Seems like more of an isolated incident than the norm, I'm not sure we should be expecting more of the same from other RSNs.

It's an obvious bubble but it's significantly more complicated than newsprint/books/music. The cable industry has a much stronger position since the threat of replacement is also controlled by them as ISPs, especially if net neutrality goes away (which is essentially the cable industry's safety net). A la carte streaming services will be great for consumers but the Netflixes and Hulus of the world are going to be paying out the arse to ISPs if cable TV ever dies (unless Google Fiber starts getting laid out at break-neck speed). That cost will likely trickle down to the consumers thus making a la carte services less attractive and more expensive than they theoretically are today.

There is also no alternative to cable if you're a sports fan. Illegally sharing MP3s was a lot different than illegally streaming a sports game. The quality sucks and it's unreliable. To get legitimate streaming like ESPN3.com you have to have a cable TV deal, services like NBA League Pass blackout local games so they're useless as a replacement if you're trying to watching your local team.

The WWE's network is hopefully a glimpse of the future for all television and sports content but I think we're quite a ways off from that.

Agreed it's more complicated and will take longer, but it's still going to change realtively quickly and the giant Cable Cos aren't exactly nimble.

The risk isn't cable cos lose sports fans. The risk is enough people walk away from cable due to the alternatives and the people aren't there to subsidize.

Interesting piece from NYT yesterday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/b...hip-away-at-cables-pillar-of-profit.html?_r=0
 
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And there aren't dozens of other channels in the same situation - a small audience being subsidized by the masses? That's the cable TV industry in a nutshell. People have been complaining about it forever.

A loss of subscribers vs low ratings are two different things, the article mentioned nothing about those local networks losing subscribers or fear of bankruptcy. Houston's RSN is available to only 40% of the Houston metro area, they never reached agreements with DirecTV, Dish or U-Verse and it sounds like management of the network has been a huge cluster from Day 1. Seems like more of an isolated incident than the norm, I'm not sure we should be expecting more of the same from other RSNs.

It's an obvious bubble but it's significantly more complicated than newsprint/books/music. The cable industry has a much stronger position since the threat of replacement is also controlled by them as ISPs, especially if net neutrality goes away (which is essentially the cable industry's safety net). A la carte streaming services will be great for consumers but the Netflixes and Hulus of the world are going to be paying out the arse to ISPs if cable TV ever dies (unless Google Fiber starts getting laid out at break-neck speed). That cost will likely trickle down to the consumers thus making a la carte services less attractive and more expensive than they theoretically are today.

There is also no alternative to cable if you're a sports fan. Illegally sharing MP3s was a lot different than illegally streaming a sports game. The quality sucks and it's unreliable. To get legitimate streaming like ESPN3.com you have to have a cable TV deal, services like NBA League Pass blackout local games so they're useless as a replacement if you're trying to watching your local team.

The WWE's network is hopefully a glimpse of the future for all television and sports content but I think we're quite a ways off from that.

Agreed. The line of thinking of chord cutters being a money-saver over time has always been simplistic thinking. Yes, if you're someone that watches absolutely no sports, then just using Netflix and Hulu is a viable alternative to getting cable... as of today. The problem is extrapolating that today's price paradigm is going to continue indefinitely into the future when (a) the country's largest cable companies happen to be some of the largest ISPs (and, call me crazy, but a company like Comcast isn't going to just kill off its cable business without raising prices on its Internet service to consumers and/or instituting more data caps and/or driving up costs of individual websites in a world where net neutrality doesn't exist) and (b) in order for chord cutting to truly compete with cable across the board, companies like Netflix are going to still need to buy much more programming, which means they have more content costs that will eventually get passed on to consumers.

Plus, I don't think people quite understand how valuable sports are *specifically* compared to the programs that you typically see on Netflix and Amazon (which is why cable companies still pay such a massive premium in subscriber fees for sports channels even with smaller audience numbers). We can just look at the UK as a example where they are slightly further along with more alternative streaming options for cable programs and sports with NowTV. Their equivalents of Netflix (movies and old TV programs) and Hulu (more recent TV programs) cost just about the same there as they do here (6.99 GBP per month, which is the equivalent of $11.74 based on the current exchange rate). Pretty comparable to the $9.99 per month for Netflix, right?

Well, here's how expensive sports are a la carte from the EXACT same company in Britain: SkySports (the equivalent of ESPN in the UK, as they hold the most of the top sports rights there including most Premier League games) costs 9.99 GBP ($16.78)... PER DAY. That's over $500 PER MONTH for just the UK equivalent of ESPN a la carte.

Now, I'm not saying that it's right that the senior citizen women that just want to watch Lifetime continue to subsidize our sports watching. I totally get it from a global perspective that this might be unsustainable indefinitely. However, it goes to show you that, from a pure self interest standpoint, if you watch just ONE sports network, you should NEVER EVER complain about the cost of basic cable. Take one look at what the financial reality of a la carte sports streaming in the UK (which, to be sure, is set up in a way where it's so expensive that it would be insane for any person that watches sports more than once per week to do anything other than just pony up for basic cable). We might be using Internet streaming to view all of our shows in the future instead of cable wires, but it does NOT mean that it's going to end up being cheaper in the long run. We're just going to shift the money from one pocket to another (and it might just be switching pockets between divisions of the exact same company, i.e. Comcast).
 
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I simply can't watch the NBA. The regular season is brutal. Last time I checked there were two ends of the court and on each of those ends of the court one of the teams is supposed to play defense. I think Larry Bird was the last person in the NBA to block someone out for a rebound......
 

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Cellular is the ISP answer. When cellular data speeds and bandwidth become parody to current land line internet, everyone's smart phone becomes an ever present tether hub. Verizon and AT&T will self canibalize FIOS and UVERSE, but they will do so to cripple everyone else.
 
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@Lefty2one @frankthetank

Cellular is the ISP answer. When cellular data speeds and bandwidth become parody to current land line internet, everyone's smart phone becomes an ever present tether hub. Verizon and AT&T will self canibalize FIOS and UVERSE, but they will do so to cripple everyone else.

That's great in theory, but are they also going to be moving back toward unlimited data? You're assuming that the most efficient and cheapest way to deliver data in and of itself is the M.O. for any of these companies and I don't buy that at all. They certainly want to *control* how we receive data and cellular speeds may eventually catch up to landlines, but I don't believe for a single second that it's going to be *cheaper*. I kinda sorta believe that Google Fiber has the intent to provide low cost high speed connections, albeit Google seems to want to use it as more of a loss leader to drive more revenue to its web sites. AT&T and Verizon, though? These companies are becoming *more* restrictive with how we receive data as opposed to becoming more open.
 

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That's great in theory, but are they also going to be moving back toward unlimited data? You're assuming that the most efficient and cheapest way to deliver data in and of itself is the M.O. for any of these companies and I don't buy that at all. They certainly want to *control* how we receive data and cellular speeds may eventually catch up to landlines, but I don't believe for a single second that it's going to be *cheaper*. I kinda sorta believe that Google Fiber has the intent to provide low cost high speed connections, albeit Google seems to want to use it as more of a loss leader to drive more revenue to its web sites. AT&T and Verizon, though? These companies are becoming *more* restrictive with how we receive data as opposed to becoming more open.

Restrictive now based on current technology, but if when there is an order of magnitude leap in that technology and it means going toe to toe with landline I believe they will offer a price point that is above the current mobile data plans but below the cost of home internet + mobile combined with the direct intent of burying Comcast, Cablevision.

Land based web/cable is blockbuster. Their whole model is tied up as much in their hardware as it is their content. When your phone is your cablebox those rental charges go away too. The competition between big cellular and big cable is going to be a blood bath and the outlet that opens up consumer direct entertainment. It prevents cable from trading cable fees for web fees.
 

sdhusky

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That's great in theory, but are they also going to be moving back toward unlimited data? You're assuming that the most efficient and cheapest way to deliver data in and of itself is the M.O. for any of these companies and I don't buy that at all. They certainly want to *control* how we receive data and cellular speeds may eventually catch up to landlines, but I don't believe for a single second that it's going to be *cheaper*.

It absolutely is going to get cheaper. They want to control content, not speeds. Things are going to move greater and greater speeds because they will allow more and more valuable content. They aren't going to control speeds anymore than they are going to introduce a black & white product.

The competition between big cellular and big cable is going to be a blood bath

absolutely.

AT&T and Verizon, though? These companies are becoming *more* restrictive with how we receive data as opposed to becoming more open.

Only because of technical issue. If much faster technology becomes available to both, you think one will be the slow, limited & cheap provider and one will be the fast, unlimited and expensive provider? No way. People will want more and more bandwidth because its going to allow "must have" features.

I can see a day where you "buy" each UCONN game you want to see or "buy" a season ticket to watch the whole season but you will have a hard time getting me to "buy" Penn St vs Rutgers or the entire BTN unless UCONN is in it.
 

whaler11

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The folks that control your internet connection are becoming more restrictive because they can right now.

I don't know who is going to enter the market that forces them to change but someone will.

The Comcasts of the world get to buy some time because of the number of internet subscribers they have - but they still need to evolve quickly or some difficult times are ahead.

I imagine in the future the changes will be bad for sports fans in the medium term.

Other than the NFL I can't imagine an American sports league that could be viable selling their games on a daily basis.
 
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Only because of technical issue. If much faster technology becomes available to both, you think one will be the slow, limited & cheap provider and one will be the fast, unlimited and expensive provider? No way. People will want more and more bandwidth because its going to allow "must have" features.

The technology already exists, it's the infrastructure and footprint that doesn't.

People want greater bandwidth but that doesn't mean they'll get it. Last year Time Warner's CFO publicly stated they don't see a need for residential gigabit Internet.
http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/27/4...no-consumer-demand-for-fiber-gigabit-internet

AT&T has been a disaster for ages with everything they touch, I would not count on them being leaders in the "bleeding-edge ISP" department. Verizon and Google perhaps, we'll see. The cable/ISP market is one of the most difficult in this country for a new provider to make a dent in. The anti-competitive, in-bed-with-each other culture through the industry is pretty sickening.
 

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I wouldn't hang my hat on Verizon either... they stopped building out FIOS years ago and are just finishing up areas where they already have a contract. Meanwhile I'm stuck with a craptacular local cable company internet connection a few scant miles away from both Comcast and FIOS high speed connections. :(
 
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Well, for one thing you can't have bad teams in all your major markets and expect much. Especially in markets where there is competition for both the entertainment dollar and the sports dollar. The LA, New York and Chicago sports fans have alternatives if the local NBA team is awful...Then add the fact that regular season professional basketball can be pretty predictable, and for the most part pretty meaningless when teams can make the playoffs with losing records, and more than half the teams make the playoffs. There are too many teams and I would argue too many games, too. hard to imagine anyone but a huge fan getting excited to see Toronto vs Memphis on a Wednesday night in February. Not to pick on those teams in particular, but they have limited history limited tradition and if you are, say a Knicks fan or a Celtics or Bulls or Lakers fan, those are meaningless games.

I agree with most of this. Any league, other than the NFL, would have a problem if several of their flagship teams bottom-out at the same time for a sustained period. I don't believe there are too many games. I certainly agree there are too many teams. When the quality of play was higher, fans cared more. Over expansion is the fruit of short-money mindset. It is not surprising the NBA has enjoyed a rejuvenation at the same time several teams have been able to collect high quality talent to form "Super Teams". For the beating he took for it, Lebron going to Miami was the best thing that could have happened for the NBA. Having "super teams" teams in good markets has always been the recipe for success for the NBA. The Big Three in Boston, Shaq and Kobe in LA, Lebron-Wade-Bosh in Miami, Isiah's Bad Boys, MJ-Pippen-Rodman, etc.

The NBA suffers when rosters are too thin. I think the League would be better served by contracting five teams. You solve at least two large issues with contraction:
1) Too many thin rosters
2) Too many underclassmen joining the League.
 
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Google is trying a bunch of things to enhance internet connectivity including launching balloons, make massive wifi networks, and of course google fiber. There's no question it is and will remain cheap because google can make MASSIVE amounts of money from all of the data it will collect on people and their ability to provide the internet for "connected" homes, which will be extraordinarily valuable to them in the near future.

The thing that excites me most is that this enhances UConns value. There are a lot of people who will pay a la carte to get UConn sports. Both basketball teams have a big (and in many cases separate) draw not only in the northeast, but around the country. Either conference networks or possibly individual school networks can be purchased through the internet and streamed in HD to our TVs in the future and there will be no more forced purchases of the network through cable packages. Aka Rutgers add to the big 10 may look bad in retrospect. Possibly very bad.
 

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I honestly don't remember the last time I watched a complete NBA game from start to finish. I don't even remember a time in the past 20 or so years that I watched half of a NBA game.

About UCONN a la carte sports offerings, sign me up for that right friggin' now. I HATE paying a gazillion dollars per month for cable and it's all my fault too because of sports. My wife would drop to basic tomorrow if I could give up the sports channels. I try to not watch but I can't help it. Things like the MLB.tv packages are a step in the right direction. But if I could by all UCONN content and no other college sports, I would do it instantly. Then if UCONN ever joined a conference with its own channel, I would go back to an extended package that included whatever channels UCONN is aired.
 

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UConn is kind of unique in that it would have more value as a stand alone offering than as part of its current conference television package. A UConn channel/app/offering direct to consumers would really do quite well.
 
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