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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 4824573, member: 12088"] I agree, by and large. The jury is still out on them. I meant not a top-20 team, as I said above. But it's understandable that they got a decent ranking early on given the win over tOSU, despite their mediocre SoS. It's not the worst, at #48, but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence about their future. You make a good point about the 3rd quarter comeback. I saw it a little differently, though. It seemed to me that tOSU exhausted themselves in that effort, and USC had gotten a little complacent. That's why (I think) they were able to take the lead back in the 4th. What I take away from the game is that tOSU was indeed surprised by the first half and weren't able to really overcome the deficit despite the comeback. As they say in football, or boxing, they got punched in the face, and managed to punch back. But they were still vulnerable to the last punch USC still had in their arsenal. [I may have mixed that metaphor. Sorry.] I also agree that Marshall should be able to support Watkins well as the season goes on. But I also see the same upcoming schedule you do. Nothing would tickle me more than to see them upset UCLA, but I doubt very much this will happen. I expect they'll end up with at least 7 losses in conference [to UCLA Colorado Utah and Colorado], and maybe more if Oregon St, Washington, or Arizona surprises them. Those last three look to me like their natural equals. Watkins is great, no doubt. She might thump Oregon St or Washington all by herself. But their margin for error looks quite small to me. So here's the problem for me -- as you say, the data points are scant, and I am also thinking of where they might end up, not where they are now. Polls have this ambiguity -- do they reflect current reality or potential? I'm trying to navigate this ambiguity as best I can, and I may not have gotten it just right. But I think USC will not get past the 2nd round of the tournamentment, and could fall out even sooner. This estimation, such as it is, informs my thinking about their ranking. The bright spot is that they'll get to the tournament at all. [/QUOTE]

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