Link to the 538 Website's Women's Tournament Predictions

[1-of-the-6]

Predictions for all of the first-round games, plus an interactive bracket to show each team's chances of going all the way. They have UCONN at 52%

2017 March Madness Predictions

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting - two thee seeds are given great chances to reach the FF than the two seeds in the same region - Texas over Stanford 16% to 10% and Maryland over Duke 7% to 2%. The other two 2 vs 3 are Oregon State 23% to FSU 16% and Miss State 12% to Washington 9%. The one seed odds of reaching the FF:
UConn: 90%
Baylor: 76%
ND: 60%
SC: 56%
And they have UConn odds on favorite again this year but by a much smaller percentage.

 

[1-of-the-6]

Interesting - two thee seeds are given great chances to reach the FF than the two seeds in the same region - Texas over Stanford 16% to 10% and Maryland over Duke 7% to 2%. The other two 2 vs 3 are Oregon State 23% to FSU 16% and Miss State 12% to Washington 9%. The one seed odds of reaching the FF:
UConn: 90%
Baylor: 76%
ND: 60%
SC: 56%
And they have UConn odds on favorite again this year but by a much smaller percentage.

Yeah, if you go to their main page, there's an article about exactly that, that UCONN's chances of winning are way down from last season. 52% this year; can't remember last year's number but it was at least in the high 70's.

I looked through all the teams before and I think there were only four or five that they gave better than a <1% chance of winning the whole thing. Kind of amazing, but I wouldn't dispute it.

 

[LO TRADER]

Other than UCONN, I think the #1 seeds odds of making the FF are far too optimistic.

 

[Bonpland]

I know the predictions don't matter and that we are all just filling time until the games begin, but I think that given our season and that we marched through a tough (the toughest?) OCC schedule, it seems that the 52% prediction shows a certain lack of respect for this year's team.

 

[UcMiami]

I know the predictions don't matter and that we are all just filling time until the games begin, but I think that given our season and that we marched through a tough (the toughest?) OCC schedule, it seems that the 52% prediction shows a certain lack of respect for this year's team.

It is like the Massey predicted losses column throughout the year - it adds up the 2% and 5% chance of loss in any single game and you end up with 2 projected losses even though you have a 90% chance of winning each individual game. The 52% is taking into account the total of all six games - so they have UConn with a 90% chance of getting to the final four and then about a 65% chance of winning each one of those games - when you add it all up it is still just 52%, but that compares to a 48% chance for the rest of the 63 teams in the field combined with Baylor at 23%, ND at 10% and SC at 8% so combined those three teams have only a 41% chance.

 

[1-of-the-6]

It is like the Massey predicted losses column throughout the year - it adds up the 2% and 5% chance of loss in any single game and you end up with 2 projected losses even though you have a 90% chance of winning each individual game. The 52% is taking into account the total of all six games - so they have UConn with a 90% chance of getting to the final four and then about a 65% chance of winning each one of those games - when you add it all up it is still just 52%, but that compares to a 48% chance for the rest of the 63 teams in the field combined with Baylor at 23%, ND at 10% and SC at 8% so combined those three teams have only a 41% chance.

Exactly. Most people don't understand how that math works, and some are even screaming that UCONN was disrespected. First of all, while 538 certainly isn't always correct, their predictions aren't subjective, they're done with formulas, so the team names don't matter, and "respect" is neither given nor taken. Secondly, it shows how highly regarded last year's team was, with them given a 75-76% chance of winning it all.