Like Sand Thru The Hourglass...don't Count Out Louisville To Big 12 Just Yet

[Rumrunner]

Don't count out Louisville to Big 12 just yet
Published: Oct 30, 2011
BY BERRY TRAMEL

"Chuck Neinas says the Big 12 is finished expanding for now. And you can trust him, so long as you don't get too picky about what “now” means.

The Big 12 added West Virginia on Friday, leaving Louisville in the wretched Big East. The Big 12 might be a pirate ship, but at least America wants to watch the Bluebeards play football. But don't count out Louisville coming on board, too.

And maybe sooner rather than later. A Big 12 source told me that despite what Neinas said Friday, the conference has not settled on 10 as an ideal number. In fact, there could be a push to also invite Louisville soon and bring the membership to 11."

http://m.newsok.com/dont-count-out-...rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[ctchamps]

Looks like I might be correct. The B12 wants WV for next year. The BE wants WV to honor the 27 month time period. So now the threat by the B12 begins. The B12 says WV next season or we go for two other BE teams. They want to test the resolve of the remaining BE teams. I still say make WV honor the 27 months. It's worth the gamble. If WV goes the football side of the conference is all but dead. And if the B12 can't get WV next season and Missouri heads to the SEC, the B12 will go west.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

WVU is gone, what the Big 12's thinking may be is if we gut the big east and finish it off, everyone gets their teams next year instead of 27 months from now. That could potentially benefit us.

 

[ctchamps]

I can't see how a gutted BE gets UConn into a better situation. Two things have to happen. ND has to leave the BE and affiliate with another conference in all sports and UConn has to be invited with them. Every one is banking on ND going to the ACC in all sports and UConn getting the 16th bid. The problem I have with that happening is that if ND is giving up its independence in football with the ACC I would think they could have had a better situation with the BE in all sports and parlayed that commitment with the upcoming contract. They could have controlled their destiny more in the BE than the ACC.

 

[ZooCougar]

Louisville is too quiet. Something is definitely up.

 

[Vowelguy]

I can't see how a gutted BE gets UConn into a better situation.

+1

 

[ctchamps]

Louisville is too quiet. Something is definitely up.

Part 1

I'm sure the B12 has been in contact with Louisville. My contention is that the B12 is doing two things. They are playing this out in public to impact the ability of the BE to move forward.

And they are not showing their entire strategy to the public or even the BE members they are in contact including WV and Louisville.

I still believe there is a battle taking place between Texas and OU in which neither is willing to compromise, because they different long term plans and the plans of one university negatively impacts the other. This is no different the the various agendas in the BE.

 

[ctchamps]

Louisville is too quiet. Something is definitely up.

Part 2:
Texas is the powerful force in this battle and they only want ten teams. WV is the team they want and they want WV next season because Missouri is most likely leaving. The BE is blocking their plans. So I expected a threat to take Louisville and Cincy. Texas is using these universities as leverage to get the BE to let WV out of the 27 months requirement. But if the BE gives into this threat they will have to let Cuse and Pitt out of the requirement and that means next season is chaos for football and the BE can't transition into a new football conference in enough time to even have its minimal chance of BCS status.

I have no problem with WV wanting to go to B12. But just as they are advocating for themselves, the BE now has to group together and advocate as a unit. If they stick to the 27 month requirement one of two things will happen. WV will be told the B12 is opting out of the invite, taking BYU instead, or the B12 will invite WV, Ville and Cinci and hope this forces the BE to collapse. If the BE doesn't collapse, the B12 will pull out of this arrangement and the BE will move on. If the BE collapses, then UConn will have to see how things play out.

Either way it is best for the BE to hold the line on WV.

 

[baggerbob]

The SEC wants Missouri and they can't go without West Virginia coming. Do you really think the 3 Comissioners of the SEC,BIG12,ACC will allow the BIG EAST to survive if they keep hearing we're going to hold them to 27 months? They can just take the remaining teams and no-one will come to the conference because their will be no football teams.

 

[Heston]

The Big East can say a school has to stay 27 months all they want. All the school has to do is leave and their is nothing the Big East can do about it. Nothing. It is just a matter of what size check a judge would say covers the damages of the 8 month departure time (finishing this school year) vs having to stay 19 months longer. For those arguing that the damages would be "large" because of the BCS bid potentially being lost, that will be an extremely tough argument to make. To Baggerbobs point the ACC, Big 12, and SEC all have a vested interest in this happening quickly. The Big Ten, is at best, neutral. No way WV waits the 27 months. The only question is next year or year after and how much they pay. While Pitt and Syracuse are being quiet, the same is true for them.

 

[ctchamps]

The SEC wants Missouri and they can't go without West Virginia coming. Do you really think the 3 Comissioners of the SEC,BIG12,ACC will allow the BIG EAST to survive if they keep hearing we're going to hold them to 27 months? They can just take the remaining teams and no-one will come to the conference because their will be no football teams.

I'm not sure this is correct. If the SEC offers and Missouri accepts then Missouri can be in the SEC next season. Nobody has any clue what the holdup is.

 

[ctchamps]

The Big East can say a school has to stay 27 months all they want. All the school has to do is leave and their is nothing the Big East can do about it. Nothing. It is just a matter of what size check a judge would say covers the damages of the 8 month departure time (finishing this school year) vs having to stay 19 months longer. For those arguing that the damages would be "large" because of the BCS bid potentially being lost, that will be an extremely tough argument to make. To Baggerbobs point the ACC, Big 12, and SEC all have a vested interest in this happening quickly. The Big Ten, is at best, neutral. No way WV waits the 27 months. The only question is next year or year after and how much they pay. While Pitt and Syracuse are being quiet, the same is true for them.

I don't know if you are correct or not about the 27 month issue. The outcome of events is definitely weighted on the ability of enforcement of the 27 month issue. Are you a lawyer and do you have the BE contract as a reference for you declaration?

 

[Vowelguy]

The Big East can say a school has to stay 27 months all they want. All the school has to do is leave and their is nothing the Big East can do about it. Nothing. It is just a matter of what size check a judge would say covers the damages of the 8 month departure time

I dunno. Couldn't the judge issue an injunction barring WVU from joining early? I'm not sure that would actually happen, and I'm no lawyer, but the idea that there's nothing that can stop them seems, in theory, unclear.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I believe this is another attempt by the B12 to make threats that they will take more BE teams if BE does not let WVU go next season. The only trump card BE got left is the 27 months exit. If BE can't enforce that, I would say the conference is as close as dead. At this point, the only thing matters is when can UCONN find a new home.

 

[Heston]

I dunno. Couldn't the judge issue an injunction barring WVU from joining early? I'm not sure that would actually happen, and I'm no lawyer, but the idea that there's nothing that can stop them seems, in theory, unclear.

No, I am not a lawyer. Nor do I have a contact at the Big East's offices. But I do at Pitt and WV. I have not spoken to WV. However, Pitt seems completely unconcerned about the Big Easts options. Pitt is trying to figure out when it best for them for the timeframe and letting all of the rest of this play out in the meantime. They believe everyday the Big East has less leverage. They seem ready to make a move when it makes sense for them and view the Big East 27th month deal as nothing more than a line item that may require some compensation.

 

[upstater]

The SEC wants Missouri and they can't go without West Virginia coming. Do you really think the 3 Comissioners of the SEC,BIG12,ACC will allow the BIG EAST to survive if they keep hearing we're going to hold them to 27 months? They can just take the remaining teams and no-one will come to the conference because their will be no football teams.

Why does the SEC and ACC care? You think they are going to cut their pie up in perpetuity so they can bring in one more team? They a;ready have enough for a league.

 

[HuskyHawk]

No, I am not a lawyer. Nor do I have a contact at the Big East's offices. But I do at Pitt and WV. I have not spoken to WV. However, Pitt seems completely unconcerned about the Big Easts options. Pitt is trying to figure out when it best for them for the timeframe and letting all of the rest of this play out in the meantime. They believe everyday the Big East has less leverage. They seem ready to make a move when it makes sense for them and view the Big East 27th month deal as nothing more than a line item that may require some compensation.

I'm a lawyer, but don't have the contract. I wouldn't want to bet one way or the other on a permanent injunction on a WVU move. I doubt that the BE or WVU feel certain that it would go their way.

Part of me hopes that these conferences realize that this mess will not end cleanly unless all the BE schools (except maybe SFU) find a nice landing spot. Somehow I don't think that's actually part of the decision making process however. If it is true, as has been reported, that a majority of the FB schools can decide to collectively break from the BE with no waiting period, then how many more are needed. Pitt, Cuse, WVU vote yes. UConn, Cincy, UL, RU and SFU vote no. Two more teams would give them the out.

 

[junglehusky]

heh... if you go to espn page 2, and scroll down a bit there's a "Big East Desperation Clock" ticking down the seconds until the BE invites all of Division III.

 

[businesslawyer]

The Big East can say a school has to stay 27 months all they want. All the school has to do is leave and their is nothing the Big East can do about it. Nothing. It is just a matter of what size check a judge would say covers the damages of the 8 month departure time (finishing this school year) vs having to stay 19 months longer. For those arguing that the damages would be "large" because of the BCS bid potentially being lost, that will be an extremely tough argument to make. To Baggerbobs point the ACC, Big 12, and SEC all have a vested interest in this happening quickly. The Big Ten, is at best, neutral. No way WV waits the 27 months. The only question is next year or year after and how much they pay. While Pitt and Syracuse are being quiet, the same is true for them.

I can't comment on the actual facts, because I only know what gets put on the internet. That having been said, if the contracts are what they've been reported to be, with 27 months notice, while it is never easy to get an injunction/specific performance, I would think this case cries out for it and there is in fact a very strong chance the Big East would get it.

 

[ctchamps]

No, I am not a lawyer. Nor do I have a contact at the Big East's offices. But I do at Pitt and WV. I have not spoken to WV. However, Pitt seems completely unconcerned about the Big Easts options. Pitt is trying to figure out when it best for them for the timeframe and letting all of the rest of this play out in the meantime. They believe everyday the Big East has less leverage. They seem ready to make a move when it makes sense for them and view the Big East 27th month deal as nothing more than a line item that may require some compensation.

And your contacts may be fully appraised of the situation or only have part of the information. None the less it would be interesting to learn from your WV contact to determine if that school has the same laid back attitude Pitt seems to have. If WV is a lot more desperate to get out next season it could be evidence that WV is on a time frame with the B12 conference for admission.

 

[upstater]

I'm a lawyer, but don't have the contract. I wouldn't want to bet one way or the other on a permanent injunction on a WVU move. I doubt that the BE or WVU feel certain that it would go their way.

Part of me hopes that these conferences realize that this mess will not end cleanly unless all the BE schools (except maybe SFU) find a nice landing spot. Somehow I don't think that's actually part of the decision making process however. If it is true, as has been reported, that a majority of the FB schools can decide to collectively break from the BE with no waiting period, then how many more are needed. Pitt, Cuse, WVU vote yes. UConn, Cincy, UL, RU and SFU vote no. Two more teams would give them the out.

Except it wouldn't be up to just the football schools.

The only end-around is if the football schools bribe the basketball schools to vote with them.

BUT, there's really not all that much money in it because there are so many schools.

Say UL goes to the B12. That's 4 votes, and they need 75% or 12. They need to turn all 8 basketball schools. So, UL, WV, Pitt and Cuse would have to come up with a kitty for 12 schools. Say that the basketball schools would end BE football (and their association with the bball/footballs) for $3 million each more. That's $36 million / 4 = $9 million + $5 million exit fee = $14 million.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Except it wouldn't be up to just the football schools.

The only end-around is if the football schools bribe the basketball schools to vote with them.

BUT, there's really not all that much money in it because there are so many schools.

Say UL goes to the B12. That's 4 votes, and they need 75% or 12. They need to turn all 8 basketball schools. So, UL, WV, Pitt and Cuse would have to come up with a kitty for 12 schools. Say that the basketball schools would end BE football (and their association with the bball/footballs) for $3 million each more. That's $36 million / 4 = $9 million + $5 million exit fee = $14 million.

It has been reported that it is up to the football schools. That they can walk from the BB schools without the 27 month period, since the period only exists to protect them under the BCS continuity rule.

 

[ctchamps]

It has been reported that it is up to the football schools. That they can walk from the BB schools without the 27 month period, since the period only exists to protect them under the BCS continuity rule.

I think that ship has left for the football schools that have announced their leaving the conference. They have relinquished their ability to remove themselves from the governing rules of the BE in its combined entity and form a separate entity. Therefore they are under the rule of the remaining BE bb and football schools in regards the 27 month hold.

Even if the remaining BE football schools (UConn, Rutgers, Cinci, USF and Louisville) voted to separate today, I would imagine WV, Cuse and Pitt would have to abide by the existing contract of the BE prior to separation, whereas the other five schools would not be subject to those rules.