Life on the bubble: The curious case of Auburn

[Plebe]

Auburn, currently Charlie Creme's "first team out" of the NCAA field, is a curious case. After beating Tennessee by 18 in January, they were being projected as a #6 or #7 seed. However, since then they have gone 3-9 over their last 12 games, including consecutive losses in February to Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama. They recovered to score a quality win over LSU and held serve against Arkansas, but then exited the SEC tournament with another loss to Georgia.

With a 17-14 record (7-9 SEC), I believe Auburn would tie the record for the worst win-loss percentage to receive an at-large bid since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1994. (North Carolina State was selected with a 17-14 record in 2004.) A nervous parent of an Auburn player compiled the following case:

It's hard not to chuckle at the obvious homer bias (as well as a few inaccuracies) in this "research," but it doesn't change the fact that, in this oh-so-soft bubble year, Auburn is in the mix for a possible at-large bid. It's hard to have much more confidence in the prospects of a George Washington team whose best win of the season was over Dayton.

 

[LETTERL]

I believe the NCState team from 2004 was selected because that year, we had almost all freshmen and sophomores playing by the end of the season (who would go on to Kay Yow's last Sweet 16 run in 2007), played an extremely tough schedule (ranked #2 or #3 in the country) and finished winning 8 of its final 10 games.

 

[Plebe]

I believe the NCState team from 2004 was selected because that year, we had almost all freshmen and sophomores playing by the end of the season (who would go on to Kay Yow's last Sweet 16 run in 2007), played an extremely tough schedule (ranked #2 or #3 in the country) and finished winning 8 of its final 10 games.

That's what makes Auburn's case even more intriguing. Not only would they have a record-low winning percentage for an at-large team; they have a good but not great SOS (#21), and they faded badly down the stretch.

There are multiple instances over the years of 14-loss teams getting in and of 17-win teams getting in, but I believe NC State 2004 stands alone thus far as the only 17-14 team to get in.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Historically, with an RPI and SOS such as theirs, they will certainly get a good look, probably a better look than the other teams. But in the preamble Plebe points out 3-9 in the last 12 games (a negative in itself) and a positive for Purdue (not directly noted) was advancement to the tourney final. So many factors.

For GW, bowing out in the conference quarterfinals will be considered another negative.

 

[Plebe]

Historically, with an RPI and SOS such as theirs, they will certainly get a good look, probably a better look than the other teams. But in the preamble Plebe points out 3-9 in the last 12 games (a negative in itself) and a positive for Purdue (not directly noted) was advancement to the tourney final. So many factors.

For GW, bowing out in the conference quarterfinals will be considered another negative.

Pretty much all the bubble teams vying for those last few spots have major negatives. At this point I think Cal is right in there with GW and Auburn, but Cal went 6-12 in the Pac-12. Yet they have 3 quality wins (UCLA, Oklahoma, Oregon) that are better than what the other bubble teams have.

 

[LETTERL]

That's what makes Auburn's case even more intriguing. Not only would they have a record-low winning percentage for an at-large team; they have a good but not great SOS (#21), and they faded badly down the stretch.

There are multiple instances over the years of 14-loss teams getting in and of 17-win teams getting in, but I believe NC State 2004 stands alone thus far as the only 17-14 team to get in.

I couldn't remember all the details...so I went back into the NCState archives to check out the 2003-2004 season.

The Wolfpack Women started the season 8-5, and participated in the Oregon Classic and San Juan Shootout. In the second game of the season, we played at #2 Texas, and lost by 10 points. We lost a heartbreaking game to #24 Oregon, 78-83 in the finals of the Oregon classic and then fell to #9 Georgia the next week in the Wolfpack Classic, 58-72. Our fourth loss was to unranked Baylor in the final game of the San Juan Shootout, 63-79; exactly one week later, on December 29th, 2003, we got blown off the court by #1 UCONN in Stoors, 53-87.

Now my memories are starting to flood back; we started the conference season 0-5 for the worst ACC start in program history, losing to Maryland by 12, Wake Forest by 4, #13 UNC by 1, Clemson by 13 and to Virginia by 4. We then beat Florida State, got revenge on Maryland, then lost to #1 Duke by 19 points. (So, UCONN must have lost between the time we played them and our first Duke game on January 30th, 2004). At that point in the season, NCState was at 10-11.

We then went on a 6-game winning streak: back-to-back 4-point wins on GaTech and Wake Forest, an 8-point win over #12 UNC, a 19-point win over Clemson, a 5-point win at Virginia and another win over Florida State. That brought the record to 16-11, then we lost our last two regular season games to GaTech and to #3 Duke by 33 points, to close out the regular season 16-13, 8-8 ACC.

In the ACCT, we went 1-1, falling to #10 UNC by 11 points to finish 17-14. Then, in a touch of irony now, considering what this thread is about, we dropped our first round NCAAT game to Auburn, 79-59 to finish 17-15.