Let's recap the last month in conference affiliation

[nelsonmuntz]

Just over a month ago, we were all feeling pretty bullish about our future as a school and a league. Then the following happened:

1) ACC raids Big East for Pitt and Syracuse - Cost: $96 million (12x$5 for existing ACC teams + $18 each for Syracuse and Pitt).

2) Big 12 raids Big East for TCU - Cost: $20 million (proximate per team take for lower tier Big 12 schools.

3) Big 12 raids Big East for WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati (?) - Cost: $60 million (3x$20)

So, in the last month, potentially SIX Big East schools will have gone elsewhere at the cost of $176 million, all to exclude USF, Rutgers and UConn. The same UConn that is located in the wealthiest state in the country and is coming off a Fiesta Bowl appearance and National Championship in basketball.

Either UConn is the unluckiest program in the world, or someone has made a colossal screw up. This wasn't Marinatto's or the basketball schools' fault. This was the 6 other football schools potentially deciding they did not want to be in a league with UConn, Rutgers and USF.

 

[whaler11]

So what would you chalk it up to? Fear? Are the 'other six' football schools afraid of UConn?

I agree it makes no sense to lock the two wealthiest states in country (I'll lump Rutgers in with UConn)... but I don't have a theory.

 

[gars44]

I think it's more a case of them not wanting to play in a league with only themselves, Uconn, RU and USF. They want to cling on to a conference with a big swinging in it. The BE doesn't have one. Nothing personal. I do think that ESPN needs to protect this investment that you have described, and the money it is not giving to the BE is going to fund this expansion. The worst outcome for ESPN would be if the BE doesn't die, and it doesn't have to. Let's just let this all shake out.

 

[CTMike]

This is potentially 6 other schools being offered, and accepting, more money and stability. It's that simple. It's not luck, it's not a screw up. Being a wealthy state has nothing to do with it.

It's a product of an inherently unstable conference that has been bandaged together for 7 years.

 

[RS9999X]

And the captain of the Titanic had it in for the guy standing behind the piano and his wife under the chandelier....

 

[John Greene]

All of this may be making me think more negatively than warranted but it is also possible that we are grossly overestimating the power of the UConn sports"brand" in anything but hoops. That would put us in the same category as Rutgers in everything but BB. They are in the middle of a rich state but few care about them. Is UConn in the middle of a rich state where people care about BB but little else. when it comes to UConn sports. I have been away from CT so long I really have no idea.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is potentially 6 other schools being offered, and accepting, more money and stability. It's that simple. It's not luck, it's not a screw up. Being a wealthy state has nothing to do with it.

It's a product of an inherently unstable conference that has been bandaged together for 7 years.

If those six were worth $176 million, why couldn't the 9 get it? That would have been a pretty stable league.

 

[CTMike]

Must be an ESPN conspiracy!

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Assuming that WVU, UL and Cincy do get invitations to the B-12 (as Waylon is surmising) I will play along.

Those offering the additional money for TCU, WVU, UL and Cincy are (for openers) operating under the premise that football games that include Texas and Oklahoma as opponents of the above four have far more television value than those with USF and Rutgers as opponents of the same four schools.

In each case you've addressed, the (current until they actually depart the conference) BE school is an ancillary product, an opponent for the anchor (or marquee if you prefer) schools who are already in the destination conferences. The biggest problem (even with WVU) the BE has (as a football conference, which if anyone questioned before these events, there is no longer any reason to doubt that this is where the money lies) is that there is no anchor (or marquee) program here. Our best school against any top three or four school from another BCS conference would be the lesser name in that matchup.

 

[SAMCRO]

Impressive, now people are able to recap things that still have not occurred. I love the phrasing of "recap" and "then the following happened" which then describes a scenario that is only rumor and speculation in the media right now, but hasn't happened.

I'm not saying the B12 won't poach 1-3 teams from the BE, just impressed that someone discusses it as having already occurred when it is still rumor.
Waylon, how was Doc Brown's DeLorian? Glad to see he got the flux capacitor working. "Where we're going, we don't need roads".

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Assuming that WVU, UL and Cincy do get invitations to the B-12 (as Waylon is surmising) I will play along.

Those offering the additional money for TCU, WVU, UL and Cincy are (for openers) operating under the premise that football games that include Texas and Oklahoma as opponents of the above four have far more television value than those with USF and Rutgers as opponents of the same four schools.

In each case you've addressed, the (current until they actually depart the conference) BE school is an ancillary product, an opponent for the anchor (or marquee if you prefer) schools who are already in the destination conferences. The biggest problem (even with WVU) the BE has (as a football conference, which if anyone questioned before these events, there is no longer any reason to doubt that this is where the money lies) is that there is no anchor (or marquee) program here. Our best school against any top three or four school from another BCS conference would be the lesser name in that matchup.

So your argument is that Texas and Oklahoma have willingly subsidized the other Big 12 teams. The problem with this argument is actual evidence. If Oklahoma was worth so much independently, how come they shopped themselves to the Pac 12, B1G and SEC, and didn't get any takers? If Oklahoma was taking $25MM out of the Big 12 under the new deal, you are arguing that they are worth much more than that but they are subsidizing the other schools. Wouldn't it stand to reason that Oklahoma would warrant $25MM from one of the other major leagues? Apparently the Pac 12, B1G and SEC decided that no, Oklahoma wasn't worth that much to them. So it undermines your subsidy argument.

In fact, it appears that the Big East schools warrant about $18 to $20 million all by themselves. Given that Pitt is mediocre in football and Louisville and Syracuse are pretty bad, you also have to admit that basketball seems to be a big driver of this decision making.

I believe, and virtually all evidence supports the fact, that if you slap a BCS label on a school, give it a decent schedule, and have it be good in at least one of the two major sports, it justifies an $18 to $20 million a year payday from the networks. We shall see.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

You tell memthen as you have all of the answers, why didn't Pitt, Cuse and TCU geet together 9and place a call to UL, WVU and cioncy) saying we have all this money coming our way, let's start our own conference.

I'll gladly wager anything you care to that (if the BE can hold onto any of UConn, WVU or Louisville) that there is no way a contract that will provide more than perhaps 2/3 of what you are claiming will be offered for the all sports BE schools. Please provide some evidence (you claim that all evidence supports this) that the kind of money you are claiming is available will be offered to a conference that has no legitimate marquee football programs.

 

[RS9999X]

Just over a month ago, we were all feeling pretty bullish about our future as a school and a league. Then the following happened:

1) ACC raids Big East for Pitt and Syracuse - Cost: $96 million (12x$5 for existing ACC teams + $18 each for Syracuse and Pitt).

2) Big 12 raids Big East for TCU - Cost: $20 million (proximate per team take for lower tier Big 12 schools.

3) Big 12 raids Big East for WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati (?) - Cost: $60 million (3x$20)

So, in the last month, potentially SIX Big East schools will have gone elsewhere at the cost of $176 million, all to exclude USF, Rutgers and UConn. .

Here's a different take on that $176 million

1) ACC raids Big East for Pitt and Syracuse - Cost: $54 million (12x$2 for existing ACC teams + $15 each for Syracuse and Pitt). Also includes contract extension at 3% yearly and additional media rights to ESPN and expansion of ACC footprint throughout the NE.

It was estimated by some that SU and Pitt would get aminimum of $13 mil under the new BE agreement resulting in a $2 mil net gain per year. ESPN net increase to ACC contract a year $28 mill (2 mil per team X14 or 28 mil).

2) Big 12 raids Big East for TCU - Cost: $20 million - proximate per team take for lower tier Big 12 schools. Big 12 raids Big East for WVU - Cost:$20 million.

Net increase to B12 contract a year - $14 mil (2x $7 mil). Assuming 20 mil to TCU/WVU instead of $13 mil from the BE

Net increase to SEC contract a year - $6 mil (2x $3 mil). Assuming $23 mil to Missouri/TAMU instead of $20 mil

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total: ESPN is paying $48 million more for content than it would be otherwise.

New BE contract best case scenario (Assumes ECU or Temple replaces WVU): $4 mill each for BB and $5 mil for Football. $60 mil for football and $68 mil for BBall or $128 mil.

Overall Net: ESPN is paying $176 mil for the new BE contract and other increases and their overall inventory is picking up 7 new teams in Football (SMU, Houston, UCF, Temple, Navy, Air Force, Boise ) and 4 new teams in Basketball (SMU, Houston, UCF, Temple).

 

[The Funster]

Luck has noting to do with it.

1. UConn is not in an ideal geographic location. It would be an outlier in all but two conferences prior to the poaching. One of those conferences was poached and the poachee is the 2nd conference. Right now, except for the ACC, UConn is on an island.

2. The best viable conference invite was blocked by a institution that shares the island with us.

3. BC has proven the New England market is weak. UConn hasn't done enough to prove it can add eyeballs.

4. The NY market has always been weak for FB. Neither RU or UConn (geographic partners) have proven they can grow it.

5. Connecticut does not offer big time HS talent

6. The SEC or the B1G are not benevolent organizations. They will not throw another institution a lifeline to help out.

7. The ACC will do whatever it needs to do to survive.

8. The Big 12 will be a destabilizing force in expansion as it battles it's own internal stability issues. They are the wild card.

9. There will be no race to 16. The SEC and B1G will not expand to 16 until they can get 3 (or more) in the BCS bowls.

10. ND will stay independent in football and will play the field.

11. UConn will not get an ACC bid unless the ACC panics again.

12. No matter where UConn is prior to 2014, it will have to demonstrate success on the football and develop a bigger following. It must make itself more attractive.

I believe the fault started with Tranghese and was continued with Marinatto. This was destined to happen because the loose alliance of the BE made it possible. The conference tried to serve two masters. Rather than attempting to broker a soft landing spot for it's football institutions (as founder Dave Gavitt did) both Tranghese and Marinatto stubbornly tried to hold onto Gavitt's dream. To be sure, this problem was accentuated by the BE's inability to develop quality football depth. It can be argued that the three oldest members to leave, BC, Pitt and Cuse, are guilty of that charge. It can also be argued that Pitt and Syracuse will follow BC's decline in the ACC. They may maintain their level in basketball but football will not get a bump. IMO, UConn, no matter what happens will be at least OK. UConn will not be shut out of any major conference or TV deals down the line. The elite conferences/teams in the country will not be allowed to run away and hide and keep a pile of money. The legislature and antitrust laws will see to that. However, how UConn positions itself for the future is up to UConn. It has to maintain it's position in hoops after JC leaves. It has to strengthen it FB program. The women's team has to maintain it's level of dominance. UConn needs to continue to mature as an academic institution as well. There is no luck. UConn has to be aggressive. UConn has to look out for it's best interests while maintaining transparency in it's dealings. We have to make ourselves attractive.

 

[Nostical]

I agree with much of your comment Funster, and that's exactly why Susan Herbst is key to our growth in all areas. As I've said before, we are already attractive but need to let our hair down and get contact lenses before we get a wow response. Herbst is taking us on the path to that makeover. In the meantime, we all need to fill that stadium and get excited about Husky Football.

 

[IMind]

I'm not jumping on the 'ESPN did it' Nelson Muntz express.. but I'm pretty sure ESPN didn't discourage the expansion. Think of it this way. They eliminate the need to pay top dollar for the Big East football conference... while getting a large chunk of the basketball conference for pennies on the dollar. I think this is why ESPN wants the 16 team super conferences. The fact that the conferences are dragging their feet probably isn't the way anyone who's encouraging the expansion wants this to play out.

If the Big East still exists with UConn, Rutgers, West Virgina, Lousiville, USF plus the six schools they're talking about adding... ESPN still has to "overpay" for the product.

Funster: A couple of things... I agree with most of what you're saying... but 3&4 are pretty big assumptions to be making. I just think given the time UConn had... UConn couldn't have done much more short of winning multiple BCS bowl games that would have maximized the value of the New York/New England market. I actually think with sustained success the fact that UConn is halfway between Boston and NYC could turn into a major asset. I guess mostly it's the tone that rubs me the wrong way. UConn simply hasn't had enough time to become a football brand... which is why staying in a BCS conference is VERY important. If you are right about no one expanding until 2014. I think we can hold things together until 2014... no matter what the Big 12 does just because of the existing contract. There's really no other choice.

I also don't know that there was much Tranghese/Marinatto could do. If the ACC or Big 10 come calling no one in the conference is staying put... even if they had gone to a 10 or 12 team conference earlier. It might make it slightly more stable now... maybe we could have stuck together longer and ended up with the Big 12 left overs... maybe the Big 12 wouldn't look as attractive to Louisville and WVU... but those are Big Big ifs... I still don't think the Big 12 is going to stay together long term. No matter what conference there was short of a true Eastern conference formed in the early 80s, they weren't staying together... UConn wouldn't have been part of that conference and might be in the position they are today w/o the Big East constructed as is.

The funny thing is if WVU/Lousiville jump to the Big 12.. they still have to stay in the Big East for 27 months... 2014 rolls around... and the Big 12 collapses when the PAC-12 becomes the PAC-16... they'll get maybe one year of play with Texas and Oklahoma? And are in the exact same position again.. plus earn the animosity of whomever is left in the Big East.. I'm not saying they shouldn't roll the dice.. but it's just a crappy situation all around.

 

[Druken Friar]

Here's a different take on that $176 million

1) ACC raids Big East for Pitt and Syracuse - Cost: $54 million (12x$2 for existing ACC teams + $15 each for Syracuse and Pitt). Also includes contract extension at 3% yearly and additional media rights to ESPN and expansion of ACC footprint throughout the NE.

It was estimated by some that SU and Pitt would get aminimum of $13 mil under the new BE agreement resulting in a $2 mil net gain per year. ESPN net increase to ACC contract a year $28 mill (2 mil per team X14 or 28 mil).

2) Big 12 raids Big East for TCU - Cost: $20 million - proximate per team take for lower tier Big 12 schools. Big 12 raids Big East for WVU - Cost:$20 million.

Net increase to B12 contract a year - $14 mil (2x $7 mil). Assuming 20 mil to TCU/WVU instead of $13 mil from the BE

Net increase to SEC contract a year - $6 mil (2x $3 mil). Assuming $23 mil to Missouri/TAMU instead of $20 mil

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total: ESPN is paying $48 million more for content than it would be otherwise.

New BE contract best case scenario (Assumes ECU or Temple replaces WVU): $4 mill each for BB and $5 mil for Football. $60 mil for football and $68 mil for BBall or $128 mil.

Overall Net: ESPN is paying $176 mil for the new BE contract and other increases and their overall inventory is picking up 7 new teams in Football (SMU, Houston, UCF, Temple, Navy, Air Force, Boise ) and 4 new teams in Basketball (SMU, Houston, UCF, Temple).

Do your parents know your on their computer again? You've got my head spinning and that takes a bit.

 

[junglehusky]

This thread is begging for a Carl Spackler appearance, to tell us tales of how College FB ruled the northeast before the modern NFL and the advent of the color TV... too bad the NFL lockout was averted this summer.

 

[The Funster]

IMind, I hear you on #3 and #4. We have not had enough time to do that. Unfortunately, that's all anyone wants to look at right now. I happen to believe the best place for UConn would be the B1G and would even go so far as to make a partnership with RU to aggressively penetrate and capture the tristate market. RU and UConn would be great fits in the B1G and the BTN in the tristate market would make us very, very attractive.

I also agree to some extent on Tranghese. However, unlike Gavitt, he seemed unwilling to ever consider the possibility of brokering a mutually beneficial split. I don't know if there ever were frank discussion about possible scenarios or threats. I don't know if subtle warnings were ever glossed over by an infatuation with preserving "Gavitt's dream". I also am sure not what, if anything, could have been brokered. But I do know that in both cases the conference was taken completely by surprise and looked weak and ineffectual in the process. Everything the conference is doing now to preserve the Big East should have been considered years ago and should have been implemented methodically rather than the helter - skelter way it's going down now.

I know hind sight is 20/20 but didn't we all know these days were coming and shouldn't the Big East have been better prepared for it?

 

[SubbaBub]

Item 9 in Funster's list might be useful. Allowing a 3rd BCS team from a single conference if that team is in the BCS top 10-12 for any conference with 16 teams would I think find everyone a soft landing. It might even pass a vote of the conferences.

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