Kiah Stokes the Key to the Liberty?

[Fairfield Fan]

When Kiah Stokes scores 5 points or more, the Liberty are almost unbeatable. When she scores 4 points or less the Liberty usually lose.

According to my count, the Liberty are 4W-11L when Stokes scores 4 points or fewer. When she scores at least 5 points, her team is 10W-1L.

Seems that she is the linchpin. By contrast, I don't detect the same sort of dependence on Tina Charles for wins. Tina scores big most of the time, but the team both wins and loses when she scores big.

I also don't detect a correlation for Stokes based on her rebounding.

Am I missing something? Or does the Liberty desperately need Stokes to be aggressive on the offensive end of the court?

Kiah Stokes - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

 

[Rixxx]

Am I missing something? Or does the Liberty desperately need Stokes to be aggressive on the offensive end of the court?

First of all, the Liberty are desperate for Prince, Zellous, and Rogers to be consistent, reliable scorers. As you pointed out, Tina can score big, but the team can also lose.
Secondly, Kiah and Kia Vaughn are in a rotation. Kia's opportunities are limited as a result. But I have noticed that Kiah has been in the game in the 4Q when the game is on the line.
What Kiah must continue to do is keep moving without the ball and also stake out her territory in the paint in order to become a scoring option. Tina will find her when she is double teamed.

 

[EricSD]

I'd love to see the Liberty trade her, or when her contract expires, and she becomes a free agent, to sign with another team. I don't think they use her enough. When does her contract expire?

 

[calpedaler]

I'd love to see the Liberty trade her, or when her contract expires, and she becomes a free agent, to sign with another team. I don't think they use her enough. When does her contract expire?

I wish NY had kept Swords and sent Kiah to Seattle.

 

[msf22b]

Interesting Point Fairfield (which no one seems to want to take up directly)
I'm in the middle of a massive research project or I'd start back...last year? Europe?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Kiah had only 2 points and 3 boards today, but N.Y. beat L.A. by 14.

 

[huskeynut]

For all who want Kiah to be this big scoring threat, its not going to happen. Kiah is a defensive specialist as a shot blocker and a rebound, the same as she was at UConn. Lambeer and the Liberty knew what they were getting when they drafted Kiah.

The record of the Liberty reflects on the coaches and who they have drafted/ traded for.

 

[Kaizen]

Nice to see Tina beat Parker today ~~~

 

[baggerbob]

I wish NY had kept Swords and sent Kiah to Seattle.

Kiah does the 2 things Seattle needs plays defense, and rebounds the ball. She would get more shots with Seattle, because Stewie doesn't need be be on the blocks to score.

 

[eebmg]

For all who want Kiah to be this big scoring threat, its not going to happen. Kiah is a defensive specialist as a shot blocker and a rebound, the same as she was at UConn. Lambeer and the Liberty knew what they were getting when they drafted Kiah.

The record of the Liberty reflects on the coaches and who they have drafted/ traded for.

Basically true but there was always hope that Kiah would develop a more offensive game and I recall Lambeer quoting Geno as saying they believe she has that potential. My theory is that she has a passer/team temperment where she believes other players are simply better offensively and therefore she would hurt the team is she took shots outside her comfort zone.

 

[CocoHusky]

When Kiah Stokes scores 5 points or more, the Liberty are almost unbeatable. When she scores 4 points or less the Liberty usually lose.

According to my count, the Liberty are 4W-11L when Stokes scores 4 points or fewer. When she scores at least 5 points, her team is 10W-1L.

Seems that she is the linchpin. By contrast, I don't detect the same sort of dependence on Tina Charles for wins. Tina scores big most of the time, but the team both wins and loses when she scores big.

I also don't detect a correlation for Stokes based on her rebounding.

Am I missing something? Or does the Liberty desperately need Stokes to be aggressive on the offensive end of the court?

Kiah Stokes - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

You are missing quite a bit if you believe that Kia's PPG correlates more to victories than the MVP contending numbers Tina is putting up.
I love Kiah stokes but to say that the Liberty are more dependent on her than Tina for wins is ludicrous.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Make that 5W-11L in games in which she scores less than 5 points. She got one bucket last night, but New York beat LA.

Stokes is clearly capable of scoring, and her team's record shows that all they need her to do is be capable of scoring, and score when she has the opportunity. If she records 6,8,9 points, her team wins big-time. As long as she doesn't force her team to play 4 on 5, even when she's scoring in single-digits, New York is a far more formidable team. Some WNBA players get better after the first two or three seasons. Let's see if Kiah steps up her game....

 

[Fairfield Fan]

You are missing quite a bit if you believe that Kia's PPG correlates more to victories than the MVP contending numbers Tina is putting up.
I love Kiah stokes but to say that the Liberty are more dependent on her than Tina for wins is ludicrous.

The correlation is pretty strong. Of course the team needs top performance out of Tina. But the team's wins and losses do not correlate with any specific point or rebound total out of Tina. The numbers for Stokes, however, are striking.

 

[CocoHusky]

The correlation is pretty strong. Of course the team needs top performance out of Tina. But the team's wins and losses do not correlate with any specific point or rebound total out of Tina. The numbers for Stokes, however, are striking.

There is no correlation, stop it! Tina's numbers are essential to Liberty wins.

 

[Roger G]

You are on to something, Fairfield. Tina is tremendous and I'm a huge fan of hers, but she is so consistent that the real difference for the team comes from what the other players do. I didn't research it as you have, but having watched a lot of Liberty games, I have noticed that in particular Kiah's aggressiveness of offense is often the key to their winning or losing. Of course that opens up a lot for Tina and the other players. Your point is right and it's great that you backed it up with stats. Of course you are not saying Kiah is in Tina's league, so to speak. That's clear. And I get that you are saying it is a correlation, not a causation. Your point was well made.

 

[CocoHusky]

You are on to something, Fairfield. Tina is tremendous and I'm a huge fan of hers, but she is so consistent that the real difference for the team comes from what the other players do. I didn't research it as you have, but having watched a lot of Liberty games, I have noticed that in particular Kiah's aggressiveness of offense is often the key to their winning or losing. Of course that opens up a lot for Tina and the other players. Your point is right and it's great that you backed it up with stats. Of course you are not saying Kiah is in Tina's league, so to speak. That's clear. And I get that you are saying it is a correlation, not a causation. Your point was well made.

Lol. As long a basketball remains a team sport you cannot do enough research to justify a correlation or a causation where your best player (the one putting up the best numbers) is NOT MOST responsible for the team's success. Think of it this way: If Tina does not put up numbers buy the time Kiah comes in the game you are probably behind and Kiah is not going to be putting up enough numbers to get you close. The Pats place kicker is never going to be more integral to winning than Tom Brady-and I don't even like Brady nearly as much as I like Kiah.

 

[triaddukefan]

Great to see Greg Stokes posting again. The Twin Towers at Iowa were something special back in the day

 

[Roger G]

Lol. As long a basketball remains a team sport you cannot do enough research to justify a correlation or a causation where your best player (the one putting up the best numbers) is NOT MOST responsible for the team's success. Think of it this way: If Tina does not put up numbers buy the time Kiah comes in the game you are probably behind and Kiah is not going to be putting up enough numbers to get you close. The Pats place kicker is never going to be more integral to winning than Tom Brady-and I don't even like Brady nearly as much as I like Kiah.

I sense in your posts a bit of the tongue in the cheek. Of course Tom Brady is more fundamental than the place kicker and Tina is more essential to victories than Kiah is. That is not the point. You may have noticed that the Patriots go out their way to get some of the best place kickers in the game.

Are you engaging in pretense? Certainly you can see Fairfield's point. Tom Brady could put up big numbers game after game, but if it were determined that the place kicker missed enough extra points and/or field goals to make the difference in the game in a large majority of the games they lost, one could say, in some sense, that the kicker was the linchpin for the team. That is not to say that the kicker is the MVP, rather that the kicker's performance has a strong effect on the outcome of the game, even determine the outcome of the game in certain instances. As could also be said for the defense, the punting unit, the running backs, the receivers, etc. if it was determined that their play correlated to wins or losses.

Setting all that aside, I have watched almost all of the Liberty's games this season. Tina has been the model of consistency and greatness. But it is simply not enough when the team around her is not performing well and Kiah's aggressiveness on offense has seemed to relate very closely to the outcome of the Liberty's games. To have that backed up with stats is interesting at the very least. To twist the discussion into whether or not that makes Kiah the MVP of her team (it does not) seems disingenuous.

But I do appreciate the love for Tina. No one is more deserving.

 

[CocoHusky]

Are you engaging in pretense? Certainly you can see Fairfield's point.
Tina has been the model of consistency and greatness. But it is simply not enough when the team around her is not performing well and Kiah's aggressiveness on offense has seemed to relate very closely to the outcome of the Liberty's games.

No pretense whatsoever, no attempt to twist either, just intense disagreement. Regardless of how well the role players (including Kiah) on the Liberty play, the outcome of the game, on most nights, will be determined by how well Tina plays. BTW got much love for Kia & Bria also, Tina is one of the top 5 players in the League.

 

[eebmg]

I think the word "linchpin" is getting people perturbed. I think the correlation observed should be viewed as more the result of overall team play and focus. The liberty play better when they dominate inside and pass well out of the pick and roll (setting great screens) as well as draw fouls and attack the offensive boards. The above game plan when executed well leads directly to Kiah putting up some nice numbers.

So what is cause and what is effect? The world may never know.

 

[CocoHusky]

I think the word "linchpin" is getting people perturbed. I think the correlation observed should be viewed as more the result of overall team play and focus. The liberty play better when they dominate inside and pass well out of the pick and roll (setting great screens) as well as draw fouls and attack the offensive boards. The above game plan when executed well leads directly to Kiah putting up some nice numbers.

So what is cause and what is effect? The world may never know.

Good question. I would say that the effect of a player averaging 20 PPG and 9.3 RPG would cause a team to win more games than a player averaging 5 PPG and 6.3 RPG- but that's just me!

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Good question. I would say that the effect of a player averaging 20 PPG and 9.3 RPG would cause a team to win more games than a player averaging 5 PPG and 6.3 RPG- but that's just me!

But my point is that when Tina scores 22 points, the team wins- and loses. Were Tina to slump and only score, say, 6 points a game for a stretch of 6-8 games, and the Liberty lost all of them, then that would show how critical she is. But Tina plays tough and scores nearly 20 points, or more than 20 points, night in and night out. But the team is barely over .500. So, as others have pointed out, when the team manages to either motivate Kiah to score, or frees her up through better ball movement to score, the team wins much more predictably. The W-L record correlates amazingly well with that factor.

Were Tina to go down with an injury and not play, I'm pretty sure that the Liberty would go into a tailspin. No question. But the question is when she's out there, are there other factors than Tina that are key to winning? Seems evident that the answer is yes.

 

[CocoHusky]

But my point is that when Tina scores 22 points, the team wins- and loses. Were Tina to slump and only score, say, 6 points a game for a stretch of 6-8 games, and the Liberty lost all of them, then that would show how critical she is. But Tina plays tough and scores nearly 20 points, or more than 20 points, night in and night out. But the team is barely over .500. So, as others have pointed out, when the team manages to either motivate Kiah to score, or frees her up through better ball movement to score, the team wins much more predictably. The W-L record correlates amazingly well with that factor.

Were Tina to go down with an injury and not play, I'm pretty sure that the Liberty would go into a tailspin. No question. But the question is when she's out there, are there other factors than Tina that are key to winning? Seems evident that the answer is yes.

That's a terrible straw man on so many levels. Level 0: The title of the thread poses a question. The Answer to that question is: No, Tina Charles is the key to the Liberty. Level1: A player does not have slump or go down to prove how valuable they are to the team. Tina does it the old fashion way-consistent productivity.
Level 2:There will always be " other factors that are key to winning"-none will be more important than your most productive & consistent player. For the Liberty that is Tina Charles.
Level3: Evidently? Nah!

 

[Orangutan]

By contrast, I don't detect the same sort of dependence on Tina Charles for wins.

If they had to play without Charles for any length of time, you would detect it REAL QUICK, I promise.

 

[Orangutan]

Charles always plays well but the team is only 15-12. Most of those wins happen when other players besides Charles also play well. Well...yes, this is obvious.

Kiah is the "key" only insofar as her performance is variable when Charles is consistently excellent. But to me Charles is the "key" in the sense that team would be straight up bad without her.

 

[Roger G]

It seems the essence of the arguments of certain posters in this thread is that they are going to defiantly take the words of the original poster in a sense other than what was intended and argue the point along those lines. But the point is an interesting one and I am glad the OP made it.

 

[Orangutan]

It seems the essence of the arguments of certain posters in this thread is that they are going to defiantly take the words of the original poster in a sense other than what was intended and argue the point along those lines. But the point is an interesting one and I am glad the OP made it.

When someone who only plays well some of the time plays well, her team fares better. Truly a fascinating insight.

Besides that the basic rules of logic tell us that correlation does not imply causation.

 

[Roger G]

When someone who only plays well some of the time plays well, her team fares better. Truly a fascinating insight.
to
Besides that the basic rules of logic tell us that correlation does not imply causation.

As to your first point, it is especially fascinating when it is relevant to a player who is important to those of us who follow UConn women's basketball. But your counterpoint would be more persuasive if you found evidence that it was just any player on the Liberty who has such a strong correlation between their offensive output and the team's end result. You might even prove you are right.

As to your second point regarding the rules of logic, many sciences rely on correlation to give indications of what the truth of a matter is. Causation cannot always be proven. It is a fallacy to think that all good thinking must determine causation. In many investigations, correlation must suffice. If coaches were to base their decisions on nothing but what is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, they wouldn't get much done. If fans were only to rely on what is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, what fun would that be?

 

[Orangutan]

As to your first point, it is especially fascinating when it is relevant to a player who is important to those of us who follow UConn women's basketball. But your counterpoint would be more persuasive if you found evidence that it was just any player on the Liberty who has such a strong correlation between their offensive output and the team's end result. You might even prove you are right.

The Liberty are 13-5 when Zellous scores 10+ points. They are 2-7 when she scores less than 10.

You can likely play this game with many players around the league especially if you fiddle with the number to pick as your dividing line (5 points is a pretty low bar for Stokes).

 

[Roger G]

The Liberty are 13-5 when Zellous scores 10+ points. They are 2-7 when she scores less than 10.

You can likely play this game with many players around the league especially if you fiddle with the number to pick as your dividing line (5 points is a pretty low bar for Stokes).

Well done.