KenPom

[Jerry1714]

I am a big believer in their ratings, history supports how accurate these rating are at predicting champions and final four teams.

A team in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency would be a favorite to win it all, there are none this year. (Lville was the only team last year, UK and OSU in 2012, none in 2011, Duke in 2010, none in 2009, KU, Memphis, and UCLA 2008, ect.) All these teams went to the final four and Lville, UK, Duke and KU won the title.

2006 everyone talked about us and Duke, well Florida was the only team in the top 10 for both and they won it.

Us and Duke were the only two teams in the Top 10 in 2004. You get the point.

Since there are none this year, I expanded outside the 10 and looked at the years were there was none to find where the champ came from.

Since 2003, thats as far as it goes back, they have all been in the top 21 in both.

That fits Cuse, MSU, Pitt and Lville this year.

Currently there is 15 teams in the Top 50 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
UConn
Cuse
Iowa
Kansas
Nova
Pitt
Ville
Mich St
Ok State
Iowa State
UCLA
Florida
Witchita State
Zags
Zona

It would be really hard to believe a team from outside those 15 winning it this year.

 

[caw]

Lots of parity this year, but at a high level.

 

[SouleMan]

I like the analysis, thanks for sharing. What are Uconn's actual efficiency ranks right now?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Very cool insight.

Would you mind putting the updated rankings every couple weeks in this thread for us lazy bastards lol?

 

[Deleted member 3149]

Good find man!

 

[GemParty]

I am a big believer in their ratings, history supports how accurate these rating are at predicting champions and final four teams. A team in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency would be a favorite to win it all, there are none this year. (Lville was the only team last year, UK and OSU in 2012, none in 2011, Duke in 2010, none in 2009, KU, Memphis, and UCLA 2008, ect.) All these teams went to the final four and Lville, UK, Duke and KU won the title. 2006 everyone talked about us and Duke, well Florida was the only team in the top 10 for both and they won it. Us and Duke were the only two teams in the Top 10 in 2004. You get the point. Since there are none this year, I expanded outside the 10 and looked at the years were there was none to find where the champ came from. Since 2003, thats as far as it goes back, they have all been in the top 21 in both. That fits Cuse, MSU, Pitt and Lville this year. Currently there is 15 teams in the Top 50 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency UConn Cuse Iowa Kansas Nova Pitt Ville Mich St Ok State Iowa State UCLA Florida Witchita State Zags Zona It would be really hard to believe a team from outside those 15 winning it this year.

Great research! We shall see!

 

[OkaForPrez]

Good Stuff Jerr!

I've always focused on the defensive side of the coin. Here's some discussion of it back in December if you are interested.

 

[tzznandrew]

I am a big believer in their ratings, history supports how accurate these rating are at predicting champions and final four teams.

A team in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency would be a favorite to win it all, there are none this year. (Lville was the only team last year, UK and OSU in 2012, none in 2011, Duke in 2010, none in 2009, KU, Memphis, and UCLA 2008, ect.) All these teams went to the final four and Lville, UK, Duke and KU won the title.

2006 everyone talked about us and Duke, well Florida was the only team in the top 10 for both and they won it.

Us and Duke were the only two teams in the Top 10 in 2004. You get the point.

Since there are none this year, I expanded outside the 10 and looked at the years were there was none to find where the champ came from.

Since 2003, thats as far as it goes back, they have all been in the top 21 in both.

That fits Cuse, MSU, Pitt and Lville this year.

Currently there is 15 teams in the Top 50 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
UConn
Cuse
Iowa
Kansas
Nova
Pitt
Ville
Mich St
Ok State
Iowa State
UCLA
Florida
Witchita State
Zags
Zona

It would be really hard to believe a team from outside those 15 winning it this year.

This is a much better way of using the system than simply looking at the rankings, which (because it is simply an algorithm) is often flawed...and tends to overrated Duke every single year.

Great analysis. Thanks for posting this.

 

[Strummer]

I am a big believer in their ratings, history supports how accurate these rating are at predicting champions and final four teams.

A team in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency would be a favorite to win it all, there are none this year. (Lville was the only team last year, UK and OSU in 2012, none in 2011, Duke in 2010, none in 2009, KU, Memphis, and UCLA 2008, ect.) All these teams went to the final four and Lville, UK, Duke and KU won the title.

2006 everyone talked about us and Duke, well Florida was the only team in the top 10 for both and they won it.

Us and Duke were the only two teams in the Top 10 in 2004. You get the point.

Since there are none this year, I expanded outside the 10 and looked at the years were there was none to find where the champ came from.

Since 2003, thats as far as it goes back, they have all been in the top 21 in both.

That fits Cuse, MSU, Pitt and Lville this year.

Currently there is 15 teams in the Top 50 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
UConn
Cuse
Iowa
Kansas
Nova
Pitt
Ville
Mich St
Ok State
Iowa State
UCLA
Florida
Witchita State
Zags
Zona

It would be really hard to believe a team from outside those 15 winning it this year.

Any chance you could post the average of each? That is, for each team, (OErank+DErank)/2, and then rank from lowest to highest? Would be cool to see where we fall in that range.

 

[Karmacop]

Taking Jerry's list of teams in the top 50 in both, and add Memphis which he overlooked, and I've listed them in order of best combined average offensive and defensive efficiency. The average number is first, with the individual numbers in parentheses (Off/Def)

1. Syracuse 11 (5/17)
2. Louisville 14 (16/12)
3. Kansas 15.5 (7/24)
4. Pittsburgh 16 (14/18)
5. Michigan State 16.5 (19/14)
5. Villanova 16.5 (8/25)
7. Arizona 18 (35/1)
7. Florida 18 (28/8)
9. Iowa 18.5 (6/31)
10. Wichita State 19.5 (30/9)
11. Iowa State 24 (22/26)
12. UCLA 24.5 (27/22)
13. Oklahoma State 32 (20/44)
14. Gonzaga 33 (33/33)
15. Memphis 40 (38/42)
16. UConn 40.5 (32/49)

 

[Jerry1714]

Very cool insight.

Would you mind putting the updated rankings every couple weeks in this thread for us lazy bas s lol?

I can try to do it every week or so.

Karmacop is right I missed Memphis, I guess if it is going to be another team I am glad its an AAC one

 

[Strummer]

Taking Jerry's list of teams in the top 50 in both, and add Memphis which he overlooked, and I've listed them in order of best combined average . . .

I've added actual rank next to the average OE/DE.

1. 1. Syracuse 11 (5/17)
2. 14.Louisville 14 (16/12)
3. 8. Kansas 15.5 (7/24)
4. 25. Pittsburgh 16 (14/18)
5. 9. Michigan State 16.5 (19/14)
5. 6. Villanova 16.5 (8/25)
7. 2. Arizona 18 (35/1)
7. 3. Florida 18 (28/8)
9. 17. Iowa 18.5 (6/31)
10. 4. Wichita State 19.5 (30/9)
11. 16. Iowa State 24 (22/26)
12. 32. UCLA 24.5 (27/22)
13. 19.Oklahoma State 32 (20/44)
14. 23. Gonzaga 33 (33/33)
15. 24. Memphis 40 (38/42)
16. 22. UConn 40.5 (32/49)[/quote]

Teams ranked in top 16 who are not represented - San Diego State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Duke, Creighton, Saint Louis, Texas.

Implication that Pittsburgh, Louisville, Iowa, and UCLA are substantially underranked and the "not represented" teams are overranked.

 

[Jerry1714]

Duke has one highest disparity between O and D rank, 1st in Offense and 90th in defense, along with SDST 101 in O and 6 in D and St. Louis 161 O and 3 D.

 

[nomar]

Duke has one highest disparity between O and D rank, 1st in Offense and 90th in defense, along with SDST 101 in O and 6 in D and St. Louis 161 O and 3 D.

Wait...have you factored in the fact that Duke players slap the floor when they need a big stop? I mean, that made Wojo the National Defensive Player of the Year, so you really shouldn't ignore it.

 

[DogMania]

I've added actual rank next to the average OE/DE.

1. 1. Syracuse 11 (5/17)
2. 14.Louisville 14 (16/12)
3. 8. Kansas 15.5 (7/24)
4. 25. Pittsburgh 16 (14/18)
5. 9. Michigan State 16.5 (19/14)
5. 6. Villanova 16.5 (8/25)
7. 2. Arizona 18 (35/1)
7. 3. Florida 18 (28/8)
9. 17. Iowa 18.5 (6/31)
10. 4. Wichita State 19.5 (30/9)
11. 16. Iowa State 24 (22/26)
12. 32. UCLA 24.5 (27/22)
13. 19.Oklahoma State 32 (20/44)
14. 23. Gonzaga 33 (33/33)
15. 24. Memphis 40 (38/42)
16. 22. UConn 40.5 (32/49)

Teams ranked in top 16 who are not represented - San Diego State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Duke, Creighton, Saint Louis, Texas.

Implication that Pittsburgh, Louisville, Iowa, and UCLA are substantially underranked and the "not represented" teams are overranked.[/quote]
I find stats interesting, but I tend to like the eye test even more. I'm not surprised that those two values would be a solid indicators for post season success. But efficient stats can be impacted by the level of competition. Looking at the list above, the level of competition is not the same for all, though there are quite a few who have been battle tested. I'd like to see the RPI #s next to those teams.

I must admit, I'm surprised that UL offensive efficiency is as good as it is. Based on what I've seen this season, my guess is this year's NC will be one of these three: SU, MSU and UF. I liked Zona before Ashley went down. As much as many here don't like SU, they have a lot of scoring punch to go along with that crafty zone that's so hard to prepare for. MSU was rolling before two key players went down, but I believe both are back or will be soon. You can count on Izzo getting Sparty into -4. Beyond that, he tends to fall short. I just think when healthy that team has enough scorers to get it done along with their tough as nails D they usually play that time of year.

But the team that has caught my eye lately is UF. That is one big strong and athletic team that also has some offensive punch. Now that they're getting injured and suspended players back, I expect that #28 to go down and their #8 defensive efficiency to either hold steady to drop as well. Good thing we got them when they weren't a full strength.

With all that said, there's not a great deal of separation as many have pointed out. This is one of those season where post season match-ups might make a huge difference with who's the last team standing. I think all those teams, including still undefeated SU is capable of being knocked off somewhere before getting W #6. We all know that the championship is not won on paper or on the computers.

There are some plucky type teams on that list, that usually don't have a 6 game run in them. I really don't see teams like Pitt, Nova or most of the teams listed below UF getting it done. That leaves KU, which has some scary good talent. I find my self scratching my head as to how they lost 5 games, until I looked at who they lost to. Of those 5, all but Colorado are ranked teams. In addition to a 3 point loss to Colorado, they lost close games to Nova (by 6), UF (by 6), SDSU (by 4) and Texas (well not so close, by 12). Since I've never been impressed with Bill Self's in-game coaching, I've learned not to ride that horse. Jimmy B has had a long history of getting his orange squeezed early, but I find it hard to ignore their scorers. For some reason UF is a team that keeps on popping for me. Billy D has won it a couple times. One of those two his team was floundering throughout the season, before it went on a big time tear. They reminded me of our 2011 team in that they went from vulnerable to invincible in a blink of an eye.

This March is going to be fun with UConn eligible and a lot solid, not dominating, talent at the top that should battle hard and give us some real close games along the way.

 

[Husky1964]

Maybe the Cuse team absent Melo will be the first Zone team to win since the Dance expanded to 64 teams. I'm betting against it!!!!!!!!

 

[Karmacop]

Updated rankings a week later.

Oklahoma State drops out, which is not a surprise. Five new teams enter: Kentucky, Wisconsin, SMU, Stanford and Florida State. Villanova and Wichita State make big moves up, while Pittsburgh and Iowa State make big moves down. UConn stays in the same general area as far as ranking goes, but improves their overall numbers, particularly on defense.

I've also added the current AP poll ranking on the right side of the graph. Using this particular metric, it looks like Louisville, Pitt, UCLA, Stanford and Florida State are currently underranked.

On the other side, it looks like San Diego State (38.5; 68/9), Duke (45 average; 1/90), Cincinnati (68.5; 132/5), Saint Louis (77.5; 152/3), Michigan (40; 3/77), Virginia (45; 88/2), Creighton (29; 2/56), Texas (52.5; 83/22) and Ohio State (47; 90/4) are overranked, as they all appear in the top 25 in the AP poll but not below.

Interestingly, eight of these nine "overranked" teams are actually ranked in the overall KenPom top 20, probably because they are either super-good at offense (Duke, Michigan, Creighton) or defense (San Diego State, Cincy, Saint Louis, Virginia, Ohio State), but not both. Texas is the most overrated, as they aren't particularly dominant at either offense or defense, and they are ranked way down at 37 in the overall KenPom ranking. Creighton is probably the "least" overrated, since their average score would have put them in 14th (ahead of UConn) had they satisfied the criteria (top 50 in both offense and defense). If they improve their defense just a little bit, they will probably show up soon.

Anyway, here are today's rankings:

1. Syracuse 11.5 (5/18); AP No. 1
2. Louisville 13 (13/13); 13
3. Villanova 14.5 (8/21); 6
4. Kansas 16 (6/26); 7
5. Florida 17 (23/11); 3
5. Wichita State 17 (26/8); 4
7. Arizona 18 (35/1); 2
7. Michigan State 18 (24/12); 9
9. Iowa 18.5 (4/33); 16
10. Pittsburgh 21.5 (28/15); 25
11. Kentucky 23 (7/39); 14
12. UCLA 23.5 (22/25); 28
13. Wisconsin 27.5 (9/46); 21
14. SMU 31 (45/17); 23
15. UConn 33 (31/35); 24
16. Iowa State 33.5 (25/42); 11
17. Gonzaga 35 (41/29); 27
18. Memphis 39.5 (48/31); 20
19. Stanford 43.5 (42/45); NR
20. Florida State 45.5 (50/41); NR

 

[Jerry1714]

I am a big believer in their ratings, history supports how accurate these rating are at predicting champions and final four teams.

A team in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency would be a favorite to win it all, there are none this year. (Lville was the only team last year, UK and OSU in 2012, none in 2011, Duke in 2010, none in 2009, KU, Memphis, and UCLA 2008, ect.) All these teams went to the final four and Lville, UK, Duke and KU won the title.

2006 everyone talked about us and Duke, well Florida was the only team in the top 10 for both and they won it.

Us and Duke were the only two teams in the Top 10 in 2004. You get the point.

Since there are none this year, I expanded outside the 10 and looked at the years were there was none to find where the champ came from.

Since 2003, thats as far as it goes back, they have all been in the top 21 in both.

That fits Cuse, MSU, Pitt and Lville this year.

Currently there is 15 teams in the Top 50 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
UConn
Cuse
Iowa
Kansas
Nova
Pitt
Ville
Mich St
Ok State
Iowa State
UCLA
Florida
Witchita State
Zags
Zona

It would be really hard to believe a team from outside those 15 winning it this year.

An Update:

Still no one in the top 10 for both offense and defense, but Louisville and Florida are close. Louisville is 11 in O and 8 in D and Florida is 14 and 7 respectively.

Teams in the top 21 for both:
Florida
Louisville
Syracuse
Wichita State

Did top 50 before but I narrowed it to the Top 40 as the season closes down:
Florida
Louisville
Syracuse
Wichita State
Pitt
Iowa
KU
Nova
UCLA
UK
Mich St
UConn

This year's champ is coming from that group.

 

[OkaForPrez]

An Update:

Still no one in the top 10 for both offense and defense, but Louisville and Florida are close. Louisville is 11 in O and 8 in D and Florida is 14 and 7 respectively.

Teams in the top 21 for both:
Florida
Louisville
Syracuse
Wichita State

Did top 50 before but I narrowed it to the Top 40 as the season closes down:
Florida
Louisville
Syracuse
Wichita State
Pitt
Iowa
KU
Nova
UCLA
UK
Mich St
UConn

This year's champ is coming from that group.

Duke a notable omission.

 

[tcf15]

Duke a notable omission.

The top three offenses play pretty bad defense:

Creighton: #1 offense; #73 defense
Duke: #2 offense; #67 defense
Michigan: #3 offense; #87 defense

 

[champs99and04]

No team lower than 21st in defensive efficiency has won the title since KenPom began tracking this stuff in 2003. Of the top 21 defensive teams this year, six are also top 40 in offense:

Louisville (11th)
Florida (14th)
Syracuse (15th)
Wichita State (16th)
Pittsburgh (26th)
Connecticut (33rd)

Four former Big East teams in the top six. Add Michigan State to the mix - who would probably be in this category were it not for injuries - along with Kansas and Kentucky, both teams with too much talent to discount, and I bet the champion comes from one of those nine.

 

[OkaForPrez]

For those of you who are registered members on kenpom, can you see how much the positing fluctuates during the tournament? Take UConn in 2011 for example, our best basketball was from the BET on. Where were we on Feb 21? Important to know what "striking distance" is to ending the NCAA's in the top 21 at this time of year. That is the true way to evaluate candidates.

 

[Jerry1714]

For those of you who are registered members on kenpom, can you see how much the positing fluctuates during the tournament? Take UConn in 2011 for example, our best basketball was from the BET on. Where were we on Feb 21? Important to know what "striking distance" is to ending the NCAA's in the top 21 at this time of year. That is the true way to evaluate candidates.

We were ranked 26th overall by Kenpom going into the Depaul game of the BET, we were 16th going into Bucknell.

At this point in time in 2011 we were 21st on the 18th of Feb and 26th on the 24th, I cannot get the data in-between those dates.

 

[OkaForPrez]

We were ranked 26th overall by Kenpom going into the Depaul game of the BET, we were 16th going into Bucknell.

At this point in time in 2011 we were 21st on the 18th of Feb and 26th on the 24th, I cannot get the data in-between those dates.

 

[Karmacop]

Another update. Taking my cue from Jerry and limiting it to the Top 40 in both offense and defense, here's the latest list (average number, followed by offense and defense numbers, then current AP poll position):

1. Louisville 11 (15/7); AP No. 7
2. Florida 11.5 (13/10); 1
3. Wichita State 12 (10/14); 2
4. Villanova 13.5 (7/20); 8
5. Arizona 15 (29/1); 3
6. Syracuse 15.5 (22/9); 4
7. Kansas 16 (5/27); 5
8. Michigan State 24 (14/34); 18
9. Kentucky 24.5 (18/31); 17
10. Pittsburgh 25 (27/23); NR
11. North Carolina 28.5 (38/19) 19
12. Iowa State 33 (28/38); 15

Down to only 12 teams. Four of these teams are in the Top 20 in both:

Louisville
Florida
Wichita State
Villanova

Using the metric identified by champs99and04 (Top 40 in Offense, Top 21 in defense), the list expands to seven teams:

Louisville 15/7
Florida 13/10
Wichita State 10/14
Villanova 17/20
Arizona 29/1
Syracuse 22/9
North Carolina 38/19

The champion would probably be coming from this list, if the season ended today. Notably, Virginia just barely missed the cut, as they have the No. 3 defense, and the No. 41 offense

UConn has the 22nd ranked defense, but the team's offense has sunk down to 57. So while the defense has even improved a little bit since a few weeks ago, it's the offense that has been letting the Huskies down.