KenPom Stats Through Game 7 (BU) | The Boneyard

KenPom Stats Through Game 7 (BU)

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So I've seen a bunch of threads asking "What's the team doing wrong?", etc.

We have a bit of a sample now, so here are some answers from the stats (some of this is certainly obvious):
  • The team can't shoot. In the bottom quarter of D1 in ALL phases of shooting (2pt, 3pt, FT).
  • Live ball turnovers (338th). This is skewed by the half against OKSt, but steals against are a KILLER, because not only does it end your possession without points, it almost always leads to transition opportunities for the opponent, which are higher value possessions. If you notice, our actual turnover rate is only average, which means that 3/4 of our turnovers are live ball. Probably partially unlucky, partially careless or too aggressive.
  • No rebounding. This one's pretty obvious. Lower half of D1 in both offensive and defensive boards.
  • We foul a little too often on defense. This is forgiven slightly considering our shotblocking prowess, but it's bad for the average amount of turnover we force.
  • 3-point points against. Teams are scoring a lot of their points from 3 against us. Partially unlucky, partially bad D, although thanks to BU this number is better than it used to be (same with actual 3pt% D). Teams are making an above average amount of 3's against us while taking an above average number of 3pt attempts.
  • Ball pressure. Despite pressing a decent amount, we don't create very many steals and are only average at forcing turnovers in general.
The good things:
  • We really guard people and for the most part get back on D. Considering our steals against and terrible shooting (leading to possible transition opportunities), we have a very long average opponent possession. Opponents get nothing easy without running a lot of offense or passing the ball around a lot.
  • Specifically, our paint and inside the arc D is terrific. Thanks Brimah.
  • We have a tall average height, which we take advantage of by blocking a lot of shots and not being blocked on O.
  • This isn't exactly a good thing, but we are certainly a young team: 259th in experience (average experience % of minutes), and that's with 2 freshman and a sophomore injured. Lack of any junior class may be hurting this team. There almost certainly will be improvement by next season, and if not, then we really have the Ollie conversation.
 

huskyharry

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Thanks for analysis! Reflects what I see on the floor. Watched the BU game today and when a shot goes up, every UConn player turns to look at the flight of the ball and doesn't seek out their man to box out. Ball-watching also occurs when Amida goes for the shot-block.
 

pj

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I think we're seeing that recruiting is a hard game. It's not only bringing talented players in, but targeting a complete set of capabilities to make a well rounded team. Somehow Calhoun was a wizard at finding players who contributed to the team above and beyond their ranking.
 

Mr. Wonderful

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Those offensive statistics are shocking. I'm looking at them and feeling a kind of disbelief and embarrassment.

This is a sample heavily weighted towards the easiest part of our schedule, too. Think about that.

Ollie better have a plan addressing how these guys can get some easy buckets or we may not win 10 games this season.
 
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Great stats, thanks. On the positive side our shooting can't get much worse.
 
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The FT shooting is especially shocking since we were the #1 team in the country last year in Free Throw accuracy. To go from #1 to #320 is insane. Adams made 86% from his FTs last year and is only at 57% this year (it's early, but he's got almost 40% of last year's attempts already this year). All 6 of the guys we lost shot >80% from the FT line (Cassell only had 3 attempts, but still). In 2015 when we had a young team, we weren't as good as the year before or year after, so hopefully we see improvement in this area going forward. This is one area where I do trust Ollie to get it fixed.
 

SubbaBub

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A lot of math to say we take bad shots, don't rebound, turn the ball over, and play bad defense if we don't happen to block a shot.
 
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A lot of math to say we take bad shots, don't rebound, turn the ball over, and play bad defense if we don't happen to block a shot.
I don't know about taking bad shots. We miss a lot of lay ups and easy shots.
 
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Our fast break is pretty bad. Vital hasn't converted one yet, he throws up awful shots on the break which usually go the other way. Hell, our finishing in general around the basket is atrocious.
 
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Are there luck stats in hoops like in baseball... like say... HR/FB%, BABIP and the like that account for say... over/underperformance?
 
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Are there luck stats in hoops like in baseball... like say... HR/FB%, BABIP and the like that account for say... over/underperformance?

Pomeroy has a team-level "Luck" stat, which is more or less just record deviation from the Pythagorean expectation.

With more advanced data (Synergy and visual tracking, etc.) you can do something similar to what you mention. The NBA teams definitely have it, but I'm not sure how available to fans it is. I doubt most teams in college have the visual tracking. I know only a handful did a few years back; Duke, Louisville, Marquette and Colorado St. were the early adopters..

Synergy measures things like points per shot of a player in certain situations/play types, which you can compare across all players. With visual tracking you can measure things like expected value of a shot based on the spot on the court and the distance to opponents, etc. I'm not sure what other luck-type stats exist, but the sky is the limit with visual tracking.
 
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