Kenpom question I forget who???

[Minicoop69]

Someone mentioned in a previous thread about how they use Kenpom early in the year to bet on games and came out ahead.

What are some things you look for?

Any other thoughts or ideas?

 

[auror]

Wasnt me, but early in seasons bet on high change situations (new coach, lots of freshmen, lots of transfers, etc) either for or against. The established markets will be most wrong on these teams, as their preseason models rely on things like historical program strength

 

[CTBasketball]

Usually the oddsmakers will underappreciate or overvalue a team, and stick to their guns for a few weeks maybe even months.

Last year Houston was wildly under appreciated and routinely covered. UConn (who I never bet) and Louisville both NEVER covered, probably due to dumb decisions in crunch time or just coaching head scratchers. I found that Louisville sucked early and faded them often.

Go with a garbage coach on the hot seat, a bleh team, and fade them from the start. I also found that early in the year better coaches tend to outperform the spreads.

 

[bigknight3]

Someone mentioned in a previous thread about how they use Kenpom early in the year to bet on games and came out ahead.

What are some things you look for?

Any other thoughts or ideas?

Simple boneyard search for "kenpom bet"...

You are correct.

I run a python model via the kenpompy built-ins to capture divergences in the early season from vegas vs the stats. I'd have to have a look over my sports book but I was hitting 4+ leg parlays at a near 60% clip last year, until about the end of Nov / early December when there's enough data to support the betting lines.

Typically don't bet too much. Just enough to cover the cost of my kenpom subscription and streaming for the cbb season.

But there is value in it early on in the year.