KenPom preseason projections

[auror]

Here is the AAC:

The small number in the AdjEM column is the overall rank, and there are ranks for Offense and Defense as well.

8 AAC in top 100 would be a big increase from the 5 that finished there last year (including us just sneaking in at #96). Looks to be a very competitive conference and obviously adding Wichita St. helps that for sure. We'll be a bubble-centric conference this year, with 5 schools projected in the 60s. Wouldn't surprise me if AAC got anywhere from 3-7 schools in. All conference foes need to take care of business at home in the non-conference season to inflate our RPIs a bit.

Aesthetically, conference seems to be fairly slow paced, with only Tulane expected to play on the quick side.

UConn's schedule with opponent ranks:

Last year we played 11 'A' games and 6 'B' games. Projected this year for 12 and 5, plus the potential for more with PK80 wins. We didn't play a single "ultra cupcake" (300+ rank) last year, but have Coppin St. scheduled this year (and I'm worried about South Florida being THAT bad).

We've got a real top heavy schedule with @#3 Arizona, home against #1 Villanova, and home and home with #4 Wichita St. The Neutral Syracuse matchup looks to be an important bubble game.

 

[Jaker]

We are not losing to Cuse this year,

 

[zls44]

Nice.

 

[Huskyfan4evr]

If we can beat Oregon it could be a good confidence booster for the whole season. There beatable this year I think.

 

[jcp33]

Gives us a 9% chance to win @ Arizona, honestly ill take it. If we could somehow pull out that win it would end up being one of the best wins of any team all year.

 

[Storrs South]

I feel like these projections are the floor for this team. If they finish with that record, I don't know how Benedict would look at at Ollie end of year...

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Not sure people realize how dangerous Texas Tech could be barring injury. They don’t really have the truest of PG’s w/Evans but they legit go 9 deep with most likely 5 senior starters if Hamilton gets the nod over Odiase. TCU had very good KenPom #’s to end last year and return everyone so the 14 number could be legit BUT I feel they may drop back to reality if you are not a big JD guy.

Texas A&M has to start the season w/out JJ Caldwell (5 games and he is heck of a player) but look for them to beat highly ranked West Virginia without him in Germany to start the year.

For UConn will JA become a 1st Team AA player as Champs0904 speculates? If so his supporting cast if healthy could be just enough to turn UConn into a contender to win AAC. 1st Team AA is a gaudy projection for JA IMO. Champs knows his stuff though and JA has the potential so here is to Champs analysis triggering a surprise season for the ages.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I feel like these projections are the floor for this team. If they finish with that record, I don't know how Benedict would look at at Ollie end of year...

He would def get another year. Just saying... imo

 

[UCDaveD]

16-13 and we'll be conducting a coaching search.

 

[Ts5034]

16-13 and we'll be conducting a coaching search.

You really think so? Technically 16-13 would be an improvement from last season and you can make the argument that at this point, last years team was more talented than this years team even with the injuries.

Would I or anybody here be satisfied with 16-13 and another .500 record in conference? Absolutely not, but in order to be a 20 win team, they need some solid contributions from guys that are legit question marks mosty because of youth and inexperience.

 

[Storrs South]

He would def get another year. Just saying... imo

I agree, but I think it would be borderline. He keeps reminding us the program standard is to win national championships so 16-13 isn't exactly that. Personally, if this team can't get to 20 wins I would be disappointed. I think they are more talented than 20 wins, that's just the floor that I can accept how the team performed.

If I'm looking at that list above, they need to win games @ Tulsa, @ Houston, @Auburn, and v. Cuse. that right there puts them at 20-9 without asking for wins over top competition OOC & in conference. 20-9 is much more palatable.

 

[champs99and04]

Not much respect for UConn with those rankings. At all. I think the gap between Providence at 25 and UConn at 69 will prove to be far too big. I think they'll end up splitting the difference and end up in the 40's or so. Overall the rankings look pretty good, though there are a couple I question as being too low:

#62 Rhode Island - this might be the biggest outlier on the board considering how many top 25 votes they're getting from the media.

#68 Syracuse - Not the greatest Syracuse team by any means, but I think they should be better than that.

I think Xavier should be solidly in the top 25. Cincinnati at #11 might be a bit too high.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Who in the hell scheduled Coppin State?

That is a SOS killer.

Cue the "if we take care of business it won't matter crowd".

 

[chapwilvaug72]

note the error in addition: kenpom has totals at 16-13/ if you count wins and losses projected it is 15-14; no matter das homer crony fiasco diasco installed anticoach beez gone et real coach be installed sooner than later when monmouth coach audition complete ala John Toner style

 

[JonnyRI]

note the error in addition: kenpom has totals at 16-13/ if you count wins and losses projected it is 15-14; no matter das homer crony fiasco diasco installed anticoach beez gone et real coach be installed sooner than later when monmouth coach audition complete ala John Toner style

Welcome back chappy!!!!

 

[Stainmaster]

note the error in addition: kenpom has totals at 16-13/ if you count wins and losses projected it is 15-14; no matter das homer crony fiasco diasco installed anticoach beez gone et real coach be installed sooner than later when monmouth coach audition complete ala John Toner style

Again with this King Rice nonsense. And some of you thought I was making this up.

 

[Yankees32123]

This is Ollie's first year that we aren't projected in the top 25, with second weekend aspirations. Other than 2014, it seems we always disappoint. I like the idea of going into the year as the underdog with few expectation. It might light a fire under our guys, especially the ones with big chips on their shoulders and lots to prove. I'm excited to overachieve instead of underachieving.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Here is the AAC:

The small number in the AdjEM column is the overall rank, and there are ranks for Offense and Defense as well.

8 AAC in top 100 would be a big increase from the 5 that finished there last year (including us just sneaking in at #96). Looks to be a very competitive conference and obviously adding Wichita St. helps that for sure. We'll be a bubble-centric conference this year, with 5 schools projected in the 60s. Wouldn't surprise me if AAC got anywhere from 3-7 schools in. All conference foes need to take care of business at home in the non-conference season to inflate our RPIs a bit.

Aesthetically, conference seems to be fairly slow paced, with only Tulane expected to play on the quick side.

UConn's schedule with opponent ranks:

Last year we played 11 'A' games and 6 'B' games. Projected this year for 12 and 5, plus the potential for more with PK80 wins. We didn't play a single "ultra cupcake" (300+ rank) last year, but have Coppin St. scheduled this year (and I'm worried about South Florida being THAT bad).

We've got a real top heavy schedule with @#3 Arizona, home against #1 Villanova, and home and home with #4 Wichita St. The Neutral Syracuse matchup looks to be an important bubble game.

Great post and summary of this info from KenPom. I think he's completely wrong about this team, which will win 20-22 games.

 

[FartMan69]

note the error in addition: kenpom has totals at 16-13/ if you count wins and losses projected it is 15-14; no matter das homer crony fiasco diasco installed anticoach beez gone et real coach be installed sooner than later when monmouth coach audition complete ala John Toner style

 

[gwhuskyfan]

KenPom preseason rankings have to be taken with a grain of salt...think he has even written on it. I think his formula just included taking transfers into account but don't believe AG and TL will factor a lot into our rankings given the lack of production due to injury.

 

[Kemba429]

No. No way were stooping to this level.... Were not going to be even with Temple, or Tulsa this year, and even if we do, were not going to be equal to last year... This idiotic projection has us equal to last year. I dont understand how in any projection that would be possible....

 

[auror]

No. No way were stooping to this level.... Were not going to be even with Temple, or Tulsa this year, and even if we do, were not going to be equal to last year... This idiotic projection has us equal to last year. I dont understand how in any projection that would be possible....

We were about 30 spots lower last year.

 

[stamfordhusky]

note the error in addition: kenpom has totals at 16-13/ if you count wins and losses projected it is 15-14;

Not sure if you're serious, but there is no "error" in addition. Like all computer models, the way to calculate predicted W-L record is to add the probability of winning each game - which is what he does. If a team was given a 45% chance to win each of 30 games, you wouldn't say he is predicting an 0-30 record. Obviously a team would win a lot of games where they have a 45% chance. Mathematically they would be expected to win 13.5 games (30 x .45).

 

[Leebo]

The team is almost entirely new people and people who were injured last year. Let the model eat some data before we get upset about it.

 

[andy34]

Ken Pomeroy has 5 AAC teams on the bubble, 4 of which are projected out, and UConn is the worst. Not saying we deserve a ton of respect, but there's no way we don't win a handful of additional games over last year based on just luck and health alone.