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[QUOTE="auror, post: 3726544, member: 1329"]
Essentially:

Take last year's ratings. See what the returning minutes are vs. the departing.

Translate the stats of the returning players to account for being older and likely a better player. Adjust stats for usage based on the newly available minutes.

Account for incoming transfers using their prior team stats modified somewhat for different usage. Then consider top 30 incoming freshmen, as he has found little net positive impact in the aggregate beyond that for a player's freshman season.

There's also some adjustment for team pedigree. Basically, how good is the coach?, is he returning?, how stable is the program?, do they consistently make the tournament or finish ahead of their preseason rankings?

So one reason a team could be underrated is having a couple freshmen in the 30-75 range who outplay their rankings. Hopefully this is the case with Jackson and Sanogo. But either way, UConn at #43 puts us on track to make the tournament.
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