Just how bad is the bubble this year?

[Fishy]

In Lunardi's run today, he doesn't even have UConn as one of the last four in the field - he still has seven teams behind UConn.

I'm not nearly that confident.

 

[Brochacho]

Its bad enough that we are still in contention.

 

[partial]

I do think we're on the outside looking in; regardless of what the bracketologists have. Though it's hard to find any markedly deserving teams at the bottom.

 

[bobbygt]

pre-2012 Joe Lunardi = buffoon
Joe Lunardi today= bff

 

[RuffRuff]

At some point the algorithm that some quant from China formulated really means jack and you have to throw numbers/measurables out the window and just take the sniff test. And this team smells like a steaming deuce right now. In 12 games, if your only wins are against Depaul and two teams that are about as good as Depaul without their best player, unless you were 1990 UNLV before that, you just don't deserve it. There will be a principal factor in this one.

 

[Excalibur]

There is just no way. Our RPI/SOS is an aberration, and the committee will see right through it.

 

[tzznandrew]

The RPI may be. But the RPI Top-50 wins, on the other hand, are important. They've beaten better teams than everyone on the bubble. If the season ended today, they'd, shockingly, be in.

They can easily play themselves off the bubble though, and are in the process of doing so. Let's hope JC is healthy enough to coach Saturday.

 

[Brochacho]

I think its pretty much get to 20 wins and they're in.

 

[Fishy]

I think its pretty much get to 20 wins and they're in.

That's how I would look at it.

Going into selection Sunday with 19 wins and I probably won't bother to watch the show.

 

[UConn4ever]

Beat Pitt Saturday and win in the 1st round of the BET and we are in.

 

[Inyatkin]

I'd like to say I have no idea what team will show up on Saturday, but I'm worried that I know exactly who will show up

 

[Dann]

anything less is a no go
19-13 is watch the selection show on edge of couch and hope no small conf's have 2 bids, means we beat pitt and 1st BET
20-13 is safe, mean we beat someone in the 2nd round of BET(quality win)
anything up is safe

 

[freescooter]

There is just no way. Our RPI/SOS is an aberration, and the committee will see right through it.

That is my view on this. Sometimes statistics are just statisitics. When you look at the reality UCONN is 3-12, hasn't won 2 in a row since January 9 and 14th, has been blown out by Georgetown (14 pt loss), Louisville (21 pt loss), Syracuse (18 points), and marquette (15 pts), haven't beaten a ranked team when they were ranked, we have a losing record in the Big East and have no lost to a very bad basketball team...I have always said at some point you need to win basketball games. And whatever the numbers are in some formula, we have not won basketball games. A UCONN bid wihtout at least 2 more wins, maybe 3 more, would really be a travesty this season. If we get one without at least 20 wins, UCONN fans had best never complain about the BCS formula again.

 

[Vuce]

Jerry Palm has Uconn in today too as an 11 seed.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Facts:
1) We don't pass the eye test, sniff test, smell test, taste test, or any other test you can think of.
2) We have a losing conference record
3) We haven't beaten anybody good since about December
4) We have a respectable RPI, 6 top-50 wins, and the #1 SOS

Also Facts:
The Committee cares about #1, but not nearly as much as #4.
The Committee doesn't even consider #2 and #3.

I don't have the slightest idea if this team is capable of beating Pittsburgh on Saturday and Providence/DePaul on Tuesday. But if we somehow are able to do that, people need to wrap their heads around the fact that, unless some crazy bid stealing happens, your Huskies are probably making the tournament.

 

[Vuce]

And the other thing is - if Uconn wins the next two - and you still dont think they are in, you need to line up the 4 to 8 teams just ahead of them and show me their resumes.

 

[Brochacho]

I don't have the slightest idea if this team is capable of beating Pittsburgh on Saturday and Providence/DePaul on Tuesday.

UConn beat DePaul by 30 something though?

 

[freescooter]

Facts:
1) We don't pass the eye test, sniff test, smell test, taste test, or any other test you can think of.
2) We have a losing conference record
3) We haven't beaten anybody good since about December
4) We have a respectable RPI, 6 top-50 wins, and the #1 SOS

Also Facts:
The Committee cares about #1, but not nearly as much as #4.
The Committee doesn't even consider #2 and #3.

I don't have the slightest idea if this team is capable of beating Pittsburgh on Saturday and Providence/DePaul on Tuesday. But if we somehow are able to do that, people need to wrap their heads around the fact that, unless some crazy bid stealing happens, your Huskies are probably making the tournament.

If we do that, I'm less troubled by our selection, but frankly the RPI/SOS are so important now that it almost makes the BCS selection system look legitimate.

 

[champs99and04]

IMO, we as fans, need to stop kidding ourselves about this team, even if that's what fans do. Do we have the talent to turn this around? Sure. But toughness, on court chemistry, basketball instincts, coachability, leadership, effort and intangibles are traits that don't just develop overnight.

How many games in a row do opponents have to drain threes on us before guys learn to rotate and hedge properly on screens? How many *king times are these kids going to look up at the ball, hoping it will land in their hands, only to have a stronger, hungrier opponent snatch it away from them? How many times are we going to pass the ball around on the perimeter without realizing that the best way to beat the zone is to get the ball to the middle? Jeez, these guys just played pretty damn well against the Syracuse zone and then they all look clueless when Providence plays a little zone on them.

Frankly, this team has absolutley no buisness playing in the tournament. The NCAA really needs to re-evaluate the system if this sorry group is even getting consideration.

Hell, maybe they beat Pitt and win one BE tournament game and sneak into the tournament. None of it matters to me, because for some of these guys, it looks like the season can't end soon enough. They have shown zero sign of improvement from the start of the season, they make the same mistakes over and over, and we still have guys bi*tching and moaning about the roles that should have been established a long time ago.

This team just doesn't get it. Last night is the last time this group will fool me. We need a makeover in the offseason. That doesn't mean the players need to be replaced, but these guys need an ego check. To borrow a phrase from Bill Simmons, The Disease of More has bitten this squad in the ass.

 

[Kitaman]

The projections don't include tourney upsets gaining an automatic bid (consequently sending multiple teams). If this happens then we are screwed 20 wins or not. Its not just about Selection Sunday but more importantly 'Bracket Buster' week that matters.

 

[Inyatkin]

Smell tests don't matter. Filling out the field matters. There must be 30-odd at-large teams with better resumes than ours. As bad as we think we are, the committee still might not be able to find that many.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If we do that, I'm less troubled by our selection, but frankly the RPI/SOS are so important now that it almost makes the BCS selection system look legitimate.

Right, because objective measures are bad. Why not just make it a popularity contest like the BCS.

UConn is in the field right now and probably isn't even sweating it, but UConn can not lose again before Cincinnati in the second round of the BET. It is that simple.

 

[freescooter]

Objective my arse. It is a system that is highly biased toward power conferences whether they are any good or not. It badly over-rates strenght of schedule to the point where who you play is more important than winning or losing. Ken Pomeroy had a fairly lenghty piece on this last year somewhere, but others have pointed it out as well. the other issue is it doesn't account for margin of victory. So a team with 10 5 point wins is considered equal to one with 10 20 point blowouts...better if the 5 point wins are agaisnt teams from a major conference. It essentially ranks teams by who they play rather than how they play, which is only different from the BCS in style, not substance.

 

[RoderickSpode]

I get that the sport of college basketball has changed, that there are fewer talented upperclassmen to go around (and those remaining have been spread pretty thin). That said, does anyone think the magic number was 64 teams and that the expansion to 68 tipped the balance, making it inevitable that numerous eye-test-failures (like us) would still be in a position to get in?

Perhaps the former point is more relevant, and there's just such a precipitous dropoff after the first/second tier this season that reducing the field wouldn't even make a difference.

 

[nycscooby]

Folks, we're 3-9 in our last 12. One win against SHall without Pope, a win against cellar dweller DePaul and a miraculous shot by Bazz gets us to OT over a mediocre Nova. We haven't played well in almost two months except for a few extended stretches. Does anyone have any real faith that this team has any type of run in them? And if so, why?