Just a thought re : UConn and the ACC

[NutmegState]

Could the ACC be waiting until sometime during the basketball season to add UConn?
You would have to think that adding #3 UConn, at say 10-0, would make a heck of a splash around the holidays...

Just a thought...or a hope really...

 

[Hoophound]

No, but that doesn't mean they won't decide to add us then if overall realignment works out that way. If there is resistance by some members at least you can say "Are you kidding me, we are going to let this great program rot or go elsewhere when they are ours for the taking? Notre Dame ain't walking through that door!"

 

[uconNYC]

Doubt it. But a lot of this expansion is based on emotion and not deep research and well thought-out strategy (thus the nonsense about BC and the Boston market and SU and the NYC market), so I can certainly see a scenario where UConn dominates the basketball season and the ACC says "get these guys in."

One way or the other I think we eventually end-up in the ACC. It could be FSU going to the SEC, Notre Dame joining and them needing a 16th school, scheduling problems with 14 schools, keeping the B1G out of the East Coust or UConn's basketabll dominance - take your pick, but we will be in the ACC sooner or later.

 

[NutmegState]

I think that's where my train of thought is going... Do we become so much more appealing during the basketball season, that it's enough to put us over the top?

The ACC is a basketball-centric conference, we all know that. I hope something happens sooner, but if not, I would think there would be a bit of a groundswell during what should be a very good season for the basketball team. Not impossible...

 

[CTMike]

Personally, I find it hard to believe that a 10-0 start against some questionable competition will have any difference in all this. The fact that we are the defending champs isn't enough? I like to think that these conference decisions will be made based upon what schools bring to the table, but that's not infallible.

 

[NHUConnfan]

I think the chance is more likely if Dook and UNC fall flat from the start of the season as they are the only two teams worth two sh1ts in the ACC this year. The gap between #2 and #3 in the conference is larger than the Pacific Ocean.

 

[06029]

Doubt it. But a lot of this expansion is based on emotion and not deep research and well thought-out strategy (thus the nonsense about BC and the Boston market and SU and the NYC market), so I can certainly see a scenario where UConn dominates the basketball season and the ACC says "get these guys in."

One way or the other I think we eventually end-up in the ACC. It could be FSU going to the SEC, Notre Dame joining and them needing a 16th school, scheduling problems with 14 schools, keeping the B1G out of the East Coust or UConn's basketabll dominance - take your pick, but we will be in the ACC sooner or later.

So what markets does Uconn bring? That is the big question since it is all about eyeballs on TV sets. If BC does not bring Boston, then Uconn won't for FB. If Cuse does not bring NYC for FB, then Uconn won't. I also question how much of the NYC/NJ market Rutgers brings. I do not have access to TV ratings so I have no idea but one night with the Empire State building in red (which RU or a booster probably paid for since that is usually how you get it lit up) does not guarantee the NYC market.

The ACC is at 14 a nice even number. There is no need for them to make any move unless someone leaves the ACC (<5% probability), ND joins (also less than 5% probability) or the world suddenly explodes into 16 team conferences (<20% probability). There will be no near term conference change for Uconn. I think the earliest any additional conference expansion takes place is late 2012/2013 when the BCS rules may change.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

There is no need for them to make any move unless someone leaves the ACC (<5% probability).

Not to nit-pick your post, but I would put the chances of a team leaving the ACC much higher than 5%! I would say at least 25% that at least one school leaves the ACC eventually (my money is on FSU, with VT a close second).

 

[businesslawyer]

The odds of an ACC school leaving for the SEC in the next year are over 50% (assuming Mizzou is staying in the Big XII).

 

[mattp]

the ACC has no interest in UConn. adding us would hurt the ACC's main power players right now. the ACC would become as much a northeast conference as a southern conference and that's the last thing anyone in North Carolina wants. the ACC already bulked up to 14 to alter their ESPN contract, and then to have a cushion if they lose two teams to the SEC. i really don't think they have any interest in expanding at this point, or maybe ever, unless they lose 3-4 teams somehow and have to for survival.

ACC's move to 14 wasn't the halfway point to 16, it was creating a buffer in case they lose two to stay at 12

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

the ACC has no interest in UConn. adding us would hurt the ACC's main power players right now. the ACC would become as much a northeast conference as a southern conference and that's the last thing anyone in North Carolina wants. the ACC already bulked up to 14 to alter their ESPN contract, and then to have a cushion if they lose two teams to the SEC. i really don't think they have any interest in expanding at this point, or maybe ever, unless they lose 3-4 teams somehow and have to for survival.

ACC's move to 14 wasn't the halfway point to 16, it was creating a buffer in case they lose two to stay at 12

What if they lose an odd number of teams? UConn is the replacement in that scenario in my mind. If either 1 or 3 teams leave the ACC, I think we are in. If they lose 2 teams, there is a more than probable chance that they just stay at 12.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

the ACC has no interest in UConn. adding us would hurt the ACC's main power players right now. the ACC would become as much a northeast conference as a southern conference and that's the last thing anyone in North Carolina wants. the ACC already bulked up to 14 to alter their ESPN contract, and then to have a cushion if they lose two teams to the SEC. i really don't think they have any interest in expanding at this point, or maybe ever, unless they lose 3-4 teams somehow and have to for survival.

ACC's move to 14 wasn't the halfway point to 16, it was creating a buffer in case they lose two to stay at 12

There is no evidence to support your point that they have "no interest" in us. In fact, there have been multiple reports from ACC people stating that were the ACC to expand further, UConn would be one of their primary targets. Their pipe dream candidates Texas and Penn State aren't happening, so besides ND, we are a one of the most attractive candidates. Don't forget both K and Roy Williams have blatantly campaigned for adding us without explicitly mentioning the word "UConn". A tradition-rich basketball school in the eastern time zone is what they said. Gee, who are they talking about? Probably not ECU.

It is not known whether the move to 14 was a buffer against two leaving or if it was a stepping stone to 16. What is known is that a lot of coaches don't like the idea of two seven team conferences, as it would apparently make scheduling awkward. Even numbers would work much better for them, and adding two nothern schools wouldn't force the North Carolina schools to be split over two divisions, which would have to be done right now.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

The ACC has all of the power at this point and UConn has absolutely no power in this sitation. There are 4 scenarios in which I see UConn getting an invite (with my estimates on likelihood):

1) The ACC loses either 1 or 3 teams and takes UConn to get back to an even number of teams (45% chance of happening)

2) UConn creates the perception that the B1G is seriously considering UConn for an invite in order to make a play on the NY/Northeast market. Now this threat of UConn going to the B1G can either be real or manufactured, but until the ACC has a real threat to lose UConn in the long run, there is no incentive to add them (15% chance of happening).

3) Notre Dame decides to join the ACC and UConn is team #16 (5% chance of happening)

4) UConn stays in the Big East and grows the Big East Conference back to respectability. The Big East again becomes a serioius threat to the ACC and ESPN as a legitimate conference to compete with. UConn is either the elite team or one of the elite teams (with WVU) in the conference and consistently is a Top 25 team and contines to grow their program Nationally. (1% chance of happening, and that may be generous).

Which at the end of the day means that we have a 33% chance of not getting an ACC invite and a 2/3rds chance of getting an invite in my mind.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

I'd drastically lower the chances of the B1G invite. Unless there are lots of legitimately sourced reports coming out of the conference that they're interested in us, no one's going to buy it, especially not the ACC. I would also increase the chances of ND joining just a bit. The comments recently from their AD saying that they see the climate and realize they may have to re-evaluate their stance, while certainly, they aren't a sign of an impending move, do signal a shift from previous declaratory statements of "we're staying independent". Still, I wouldn't increase that percentage very much.