July 1, 2026: Your predictions as to where every FBS program will be

shizzle787 · Jul 22, 2021

Assuming Texas and Oklahoma migrate to the SEC and the SEC does not expand further, here is my prediction (wildly speculative) for where the dominos fall:

B1G: Notre Dame isn't coming but the conference uses this opportunity to weaken two competitor conferences at once by adding Kansas and Colorado

ACC: With 15 in basketball and 14 in football, the conference looks around and doesn't see anyone of value to add

PAC-12: Needs to get back to even number with departure of Colorado; picks Texas Tech to get into Texas and realizes it is highly unlikely to get further raided so it sticks at 12

Big 12: The remaining six members (TCU, WVU, Baylor, ISU, KSU, OSU) pick four schools to minimize the effects of the already diminished brand: BYU declines as the conference will lose autonomous status when the CFP is expanded (similar to the Big East/AAC in 2013); the four chosen are Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and Boise State

MWC: I believe the MW becomes the #6 conference due to the departure of the AAC's top programs; the conference adds SMU to get into Texas and get back to 12.

AAC: At this point is down to 8 programs (6 all sports: USF, Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, ECU and Navy in football and WSU in basketball). With the new CFP giving the top 6 leagues a spot, I don't think anyone on the football side bolts. (Wichita State inquires to the MW about all-sports membership and the MW accepts.) Navy will need to be placated with Texas opponents. Rice and UTEP are invited. The last two that get in are Liberty and UMass. That leaves 11 in football and 10 in basketball.

C-USA: Stays put at 12

Sun Belt: Stays put at 10

MAC: Stays at 12

Independents: Notre Dame, BYU, UConn, Army, NMSU

What do you think? What are your predictions?

uconntailgater · Jul 23, 2021

It will be interesting to see what the ACC will do if UT & OK go to the SEC. . They now become the weakest and most vulnerable conference and are sandwiched in between the Big & SEC. The Big has lusted after UVA, UNC, GT, and possibly FSU in the past. SEC may come after NC State VT?

djct1999 · Jul 23, 2021

Florida State, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, UCLA, and Oregon join the SEC. The rest of college football burns to the ground. ND remains independent.

WestCoastHusky · Jul 23, 2021

Ultimately, this is a way for media companies to consolidate asset to save money.

TX and OU to SEC will allow ESPN to gain 2 more key assets, which means they won't have to pay remaining 8 B12 teams big money. Even though EPSN will pay a little bit more to each SEC teams, but the saving of not signing up for another B12 media deal with TX and OU is a net saving for ESPN.

B1G media deal is coming as well as PAC12, which means here is another opportunity to grab top assets and save money for FOX. I would not be surprised to see B1G trying to poach top PAC12 assets like UCLA and USC while leaving rest of PAC12 in ruins. This way, FOX and ESPN will pay B1G a little more money each team to get USC and UCLA but won't have to pony up for a new big PAC12 media deal.

The remaining leftover PAC12 and B12 teams will have to consolidate and form a second tier conference, and it will probably only able to get a media deal above AAC but way below B1G and SEC. It will be far below the ACC deal also.

I can see B12 totally falling apart so no one will have to pay GOR fees. I just don't see how B12 schools can trust each other since every one of them will be looking for a life boat. The same can be said for PAC12 if B1G decides to make its move to poach top PAC12 teams.

The only thing protecting ACC at this point is the long term GOR. I can see SEC and B1G poach all the top assets of ACC while ditching the rest. If both conferences can convince enough ACC schools to leave at the same time, it might be a way to break that GOR. I am pretty sure there is a clause in the ACC GOR that states if enough teams leave, the conference will be dissolved.

The next stage of evolution is for top assets in SEC and B1G to leave their perspective conferences to form their own super conference to hoard more cash while ditching all the schools that have been bringing not much to the table. Schools like Vandy, NorthWestern, Washington State, and Oregon State will be left in the cold. Many big schools might even be looking to go indy if media companies can offer them top media deals individually. The college sports we know will be over at that point. Basically, it will be like the free agent market for sports with each school marketing itself to the highest bidder(s).

Where will UCONN end up? Who knows? I think our independent model for football might turn into the norm in the future for many schools.

UConnSportsGuy · Jul 23, 2021

WestCoastHusky said:
The only thing protecting ACC at this point is the long term GOR. I can see SEC and B1G poach all the top assets of ACC while ditching the rest. If both conferences can convince enough ACC schools to leave at the same time, it might be a way to break that GOR. I am pretty sure there is a clause in the ACC GOR that states if enough teams leave, the conference will be dissolved.

Not sure if it is true, but I've heard the magic number to dissolve the ACC as a conference is 10. So would need to be:

BIG : + Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame
SEC: + Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami, and one of either Pitt/Duke

That gets them the 10 ACC schools needed to disband the conference and eliminate the GOR that lasts until 2035. And gets both the B1G and the SEC to 20 team super conferences (10 team divisions, 5 team 'pods' depending on sport)

B1G WEST
Nebraska
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Illinois

Northwestern
Purdue
Michigan
Michigan St
Indiana

B1G EAST
Ohio St
Penn St
Maryland
Rutgers
Notre Dame

Virginia
UNC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State

SECWEST
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Missouri

LSU
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi
Mississippi St

SEC EAST
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Miami
Kentucky

Virginia Tech
NC State
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Pitt/Duke

My guess is that PAC12 then goes to 16 with +Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa St, Oklahoma St

That would leave the remaining schools to form a second tier conference with 16 teams (similar to PAC12):

NORTH
BC
Syracuse
Pitt/Duke
Wake Forest
Louisville
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Temple

WEST
TCU
Baylor
Houston
SMU
Kansas St
UCF
USF
Memphis

The question is... would UConn be interested in jumping in to that conference (instead of Temple), or would they prefer to stay in the Big East?

don356 · Jul 23, 2021

shizzle787 said:
Assuming Texas and Oklahoma migrate to the SEC and the SEC does not expand further, here is my prediction (wildly speculative) for where the dominos fall:

B1G: Notre Dame isn't coming but the conference uses this opportunity to weaken two competitor conferences at once by adding Kansas and Colorado

ACC: With 15 in basketball and 14 in football, the conference looks around and doesn't see anyone of value to add

PAC-12: Needs to get back to even number with departure of Colorado; picks Texas Tech to get into Texas and realizes it is highly unlikely to get further raided so it sticks at 12

Big 12: The remaining six members (TCU, WVU, Baylor, ISU, KSU, OSU) pick four schools to minimize the effects of the already diminished brand: BYU declines as the conference will lose autonomous status when the CFP is expanded (similar to the Big East/AAC in 2013); the four chosen are Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and Boise State

MWC: I believe the MW becomes the #6 conference due to the departure of the AAC's top programs; the conference adds SMU to get into Texas and get back to 12.

AAC: At this point is down to 8 programs (6 all sports: USF, Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, ECU and Navy in football and WSU in basketball). With the new CFP giving the top 6 leagues a spot, I don't think anyone on the football side bolts. (Wichita State inquires to the MW about all-sports membership and the MW accepts.) Navy will need to be placated with Texas opponents. Rice and UTEP are invited. The last two that get in are Liberty and UMass. That leaves 11 in football and 10 in basketball.

C-USA: Stays put at 12

Sun Belt: Stays put at 10

MAC: Stays at 12

Independents: Notre Dame, BYU, UConn, Army, NMSU

What do you think? What are your predictions?

I think you're composition is close, but i think the AAC will add members of the B12 and that conference will cease to exist. Maybe a splinter outlier in that group.

Chonky · Jul 23, 2021

I don’t know if it’s 2026 but when the dust settles.......ACC and maybe even PAC12 cease to exist. At least in their current form. Like mentioned before this is the first step towards trimming the bottom feeders out of conferences and ultimately breaking away from NCAA. They get ripped apart and the valuable schools are distributed to the B1G and SEC. The lesser schools end up like the Big 12, now a lower tier. Some probably join with each other.

So much consternation over conference make up misses the bigger point. This is an inevitable big step towards a complete overhaul of college athletics.

For UConn maybe they get lucky and their national brand helps them sneak in. Dragging out a few years while football hopefully regains some respect is essential. Without that it won’t matter. We probably stay where we are. Hopefully the NCAA tournament still exists.

Slasher · Jul 23, 2021

SEC: 16 in now
ACC: Finally convinces Notre Dame to join and Cincy tags along as #16
B1G: Adds Kansas and Colorado
Pac-12: Adds Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Colorado State
AAC: Adds the four leftover Big 12 teams (ISU, K State, TCU, Baylor)

Big 12 is rightfully dead where it belongs.

EDIT: I left out WVU. I guess they go to the AAC too, to balance that out they also add Boise State to get to 16.

DarthGrumpy · Jul 23, 2021

The B1G and PAC are tight, not sure if the B1G would raid them. If they did, it won't be just USC and UCLA. Consider the fact that teh B1G also highly values research dollars (see Johns Hopkins) and market reach (see Rutgers). That makes Stanford a major target (athletic brand, research and market in SF) along with U Washington (big time research dollars and a solid football brand), second tier would be Oregon (brand and Nike dollars), Cal (research dollars) and Arizona State (research dollars and market). Not sure if they would also try to 'connect' their conferences, i.e. add Colorado and Utah to get there.

LoyalFanCT · Jul 24, 2021

UConn will be in the ACC. The teams, coaches and fans will all be happy and we can forget all about the old Big East and the New Big East. Football will become competitive with the other ACC teams.

Chonky · Jul 24, 2021

LoyalFanCT said:
UConn will be in the ACC. The teams, coaches and fans will all be happy and we can forget all about the old Big East and the New Big East. Football will become competitive with the other ACC teams.

The irony is that UConn may very well
end up in the ACC after all of this.
But it will essentially be the old football Big East. The second tier football programs that wont be good enough for the P4 or P2 or whatever.

UConn, Syracuse, BCU, Louisville, Wake, NCSU, etc.

The Funster · Jul 24, 2021

2026 is a lifetime away. So much could change in 5 years. Who knows, maybe a platform emerges that leads to conferences going back to being more regionalized?

borninansonia · Jul 24, 2021

The Funster said:
2026 is a lifetime away. So much could change in 5 years. Who knows, maybe a platform emerges that leads to conferences going back to being more regionalized?

There is this problem called the climate emergency, which is exacerbated by lots of airplane flying. Most of the schools have meaningless "sustainability" goals. Eventually they will pay attention to reality and, at least for all sports except football, go with "within electric bus distance range" leagues whenever possible. No more UConn flying out to Nebraska, and Syracuse and BC flying to all their league games.

CL82 · Jul 28, 2021