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Message: [QUOTE="DefenseBB, post: 5303437, member: 7492"] So, [USER=7748]@azfan[/USER] guilted me into doing a LIMITED deeper look at the last 10 years of data for all the Final Four teams. Based on the data available, here is the crux of the problem: Offensively, using points per game is fairly straight forward (albeit not perfect) but using points allowed for defense is problematic as there are just so many really bad teams at the mid-major level that they can't score, and their conference leaders look awesome. Here is the NCAA leader for each of the 10 years and the number of P4/BE teams listing in the top 20 2025 Middle Tennessee 52.2 (only 3 P4/BE teams in top 20; UConn was #2) 2024 Albany 51.3 (only 1 P4/BE-Georgetown team in top 20; UConn was #30) 2023 Norfolk State 50.7 (only 3 P4/BE teams in top 20; UConn was #47) 2022 UCF 47.8 (only 5 P4/BE teams in top 20; UConn was #14) 2021 UCF 50.5 (only 5 P4/BE teams in top 20; UConn was #6) 2019 Drexel 50.5 (only 4 P4/BE American teams in top 20; UConn was #22) 2018 Green Bay 47.4 (only 4 P4/BE teams in top 20; UConn was #5) 2017 Cambell 49.6 (only 6 P4/BE American teams in top 20; UConn was #9) 2016 UConn 48.3 (only 5 P4/BE American teams in top 20; UConn was #1) 2015 UConn 48.6 (only 4 P4/BE/American teams in top 20; UConn was #1) In looking at the 40 Final Four participants, the points allowed stat is truly useless. While UConn ranked #1 in both 2015 and 2016, in total there were only 13 of the 40 teams that made Final Fours from 2015-2025 ranked in the top 15 defensively, whereas 30 of 40 ranked in the Top 15 offensively. So, I had to find other calculations based on the statistics I had. I decided to use the DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) in conjunction with SOS (strength of schedule) to see if that would filter out the teams who play truly horrible competition. It helped especially in relation to the Final Four team assessment but was still limited on the overall listing. The data size forced me to restrict my searching (and my time) to just the top 40ish teams based on Opponents PPG. I got a 407-team listing that produced 91 teams from the P4/BE over the ten years. 63 (of 150 slots) ranked in the top 15 each year (vs. 107 of the 150 offensively). So PPG showed 71.3% composition of the P4/BE schools dominating offense but only 42.0% of the P4/BE dominating the defense. Again, not a perfect set but enough to draw some educated conclusions. UConn appears in all 10 years, but SC only appears in 7 of the 10. Texas appears 5 times (4 with Vic) and Miss State appeared 5 times with Vic, so he was in all 10. The problem becomes the absolute ranking. Vic "only" appears in the top 10 twice in 10 years which seems wrong. Dawn appears 3 times of the 7 in the top 10 which is better, but we know SC is still a top 40 team (or better) even in those other years. SC always has an elite defense, so it has to do with the quality or lack of quality of opponents as the BE is NOT the SEC. UConn only showed 1 time outside the top 10 in 2023 and ranked 27. I agree UConn is good, but I also think defense is a strong combination of poor offensive opponents as well as the team effort on defense. Now to directly compare the DER to the 40 Final Four participants from 2015-2025: Offensively we said that 31 of these teams were ranked in the top 15 offensively with 21 in the top 10. Using DER, we have 26 of 40 in the top 15 and 18 of 40 in the top 10. So DER does show a correlation to Final Four success. In the last 10 years of champions, 9 teams were top 15 in DER (only the 2018 Notre Dame was not a strong defensive team (#3 offensively). Remember all 10 Champions were in the top 15 in points per game. So as not to appear to be picking on [USER=12088]@Bone Dog[/USER]- Yes, defense is absolutely an important component for winning titles but Offense is slightly MORE important and the stats, albeit limited, bear this out. Fact is, defense is about effort and so lesser talented teams need to focus on that effort (hence the large number of mid-major teams in the DER listing). Offense is more about the skill of the player and why the better ranked players go to the bigger P4/BE schools. Hope this helps. [/QUOTE]

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