Is this guy a genius...or not? | Page 2 | The Boneyard
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Is this guy a genius...or not?

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Having a better defense than offense is precisely why you would go for it on 4th and shorts. Our offense could use the extra down and, if they convert, can gain some momentum and a bit of confidence. If you have a 3rd and medium, the playbook remains open if your goal is to gain 5 yards to make 4th down more manageable. If they don't convert, then you challenge your defense to hold. You only get so many possessions during a game. We need to capitalize on as many of them as possible. Punting on 4th and short (2 yards or less) is stupid every time, unless we're inside our own 35.
 
Having a better defense than offense is precisely why you would go for it on 4th and shorts. Our offense could use the extra down and, if they convert, can gain some momentum and a bit of confidence. If you have a 3rd and medium, the playbook remains open if your goal is to gain 5 yards to make 4th down more manageable. If they don't convert, then you challenge your defense to hold. You only get so many possessions during a game. We need to capitalize on as many of them as possible. Punting on 4th and short (2 yards or less) is stupid every time, unless we're inside our own 35.

Interesting topic. The more I read about it, the percentages say go for it. Many coaches don't do it to save face and worry about taking flack. Here are some NFL stats of interest:

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I would think you should apply a slightly different take on "going for it"... Before the game even starts you should know how often the opposing team allows 4th down conversions. Breakdown by run allowed, pass allowed to assist with choosing options for plays.

And if the stats are available, watch the numbers for the team and the head coach and the DC... That should help you in situational decisions to know how likely they can scheme against it.
 
4th and 2 in SMU territory in the second half of a meaningless game - punt.


Sly like fox - sets up the fake punt this year with that play call from last year...
 
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