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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 4574368, member: 1329"] As with a lot of things, sequence of returns risk is a huge factor. If we have a way of knowing quality of coaches and we know that Coach A and Coach B are equally good coaches and equally likely to get to a Sweet 16 each year and are 60/40 to win games in the NCAAT. but Coach A goes 2-1 in the first round of his first 3 tournaments and Coach B goes 0-3 due to bad luck.... Coach B may very well get fired before getting to a single sweet 16. Or his program will spiral and affect those NCAA win odds due to lack of ability to recruit talent. And let's be frank. Going 0-3 in NCAA first round, and specifically each time as a higher seed, is not a small thing. That's stigmatizing and for good reason. That can affect recruiting and team morale and could lead to transfers out, etc. It would be a true disaster. Hurley hasn't won a league or conference championship in AAC or Big East either. This can become a negative feedback loop real quick. Do I think he gets fired? No. So if you're coming at it from the perspective of his job security, I don't think it's a must win. Is it a must win for the trajectory of the program and getting back to being elite? Yes. [/QUOTE]