You also need the B1G to want to expand. They sat at 11 forever, but now all of a sudden they are going to make a run to add schools just because? Remember that the B1G is arguably the most profitable conference right now. Any school would really need to brng in $25 million per year in additional revenue just to prevent a dilution of the shares. And if either Rutgers or UConn could really do that, something tells me they would have been gobbled up long ago.
Yep. This is admittedly, tenuous at best, but my theory on that matter goes like this:
Most of all the B1G want a geographically contiguous conference of like-minded schools (+ND). The presidents gave their list of schools they want to associate with, and ranked them by priority. When they could not get Texas (as part of a move south including Ok, A&M), UVA, UNC and UMD were their next move. Delaney has a plan, sits back and waits for the plan to unfold. He shows the patience of a chess player, knowing it could take multiple moves over potentially a number of years. The B1G is not in a hurry to add teams, but they do have a long-term objective to lock up new markets to expand their product, including an expanded "home field" to recruit new students for the demographically challenged core. He knows that eventually the other conferences (SEC, B12) will make a play for ACC schools that are not on their list, and that will be his "check" opportunity for plan B.
He also knows though that if he cannot get UNC/UVA (assuming UMD is in the bag) during the "bank run", that the ACC can rebuild with Rutgers and UCONN. With UNC/UVA married to the ACC, and the malcontents (FL St, Clemons, VT) gone, the ACC may now be able to get the GOR done. Maybe they can even keep UMD. If the ACC (sans malcontents) can get Uconn/RU onboard with a fresh GOR, then plan C is now out the window for Delaney. Stalemate. If my theory is remotely true, then once Delaney knows that UNC/UVA cannot be moved, then RU/UCONN become the B1Gs next (and perhaps last) "acceptable" option. Perhaps he has even spoken to RU/UCONN and worked out a contingent deal in case the ACC tries to give them a 24 hour ultimatum with a GOR. Checkmate. Now that the ACC cannot expand with acceptable schools, UMD wriggles free.
In short their preferences are "move south" and get Texas, ND and other like-minded research universities to form a geographically contiguous conference, then move "slightly southeast" and take ND, UMD, UVA and UNC, then lastly "move east" and take ND, UMD, RU and UCONN. The assumptions here being:
- 16 (or 18, 20) is the new 12, and all conference leaders know this is inevitable (certainly this seems likely given the statements on record, and Pac/Secs attempts to move in that direction)
- Expanded conference is an objective for the university presidents, with preferred outcomes that they are patient enough to see through b/c they are dealing from a position of power
- The primary objective is to satisfy the need to get in the backyard of new students to offset the demographic issues of UM, OSU, etc. and NOT to get more football names (thanks to the Nebraska pick-up, which was necessary to bring into check their first option (Texas), and diminish the need to add more football brands if plan A didn't work
- They want like-minded institutions - read flagship, research universities not private schools (except ND)
- They are patient to a point, but will not wait out the GOR's binding all of the schools (UT, UNC, UVA) that come ahead of UCONN. This one is pretty weak, but let's assume the longer the B1G waits, the more likely they lose their position of power.
