Is expansion still possible for Big 12?Why new chairman thinks conference's current size is positive

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#1
Is expansion still possible for Big 12? Why new chairman thinks conference's current size is positive

>>Gee still sees the possibility of significant national realignment sometime in the next decade, with power conferences possibly realigning themselves geographically without the whole raids of past realignment. And he's not oblivious to the change brewing in television and digital rights fees.

"I think the world of college athletics is changing dramatically," Gee said. "I'm wondering when all the television contracts come up in 2024-25, if we won't all be negotiating with Amazon and Google. I think the world is just upside down right now."<<
 
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#3
For the B12, the whispers will develop in 2022.

The pot will be hot in 2023.

And, if Texas and OU remain silent entering 2024, the pot will reach full boil.

Texas, OU, and KU to the B1G, if it were to happen, could create an opportunity for UConn.
 

dayooper

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#4
For the B12, the whispers will develop in 2022.

The pot will be hot in 2023.

And, if Texas and OU remain silent entering 2024, the pot will reach full boil.

Texas, OU, and KU to the B1G, if it were to happen, could create an opportunity for UConn.
If that were to happen, you will know by 2022. The Big10 announced the first part of their current contract in March 2016, a full year and a half before the season it took effect. That was pretty late in the game.

If it’s Texas, OU and Kansas, I think you will be looking pretty good.
 
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#5
I don't think it's a coincidence that the B1G contract comes up right around 2023.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma have confirmed extension of the GOR, although they have been asked to do so.

If the B1G were to talk sweetly to, say, KU, I think Oklahoma would fall in short order, compelling Texas to give up the ghost.

Take those three, then it might be time to finish off the NE Corridor. Hence, UConn.
 
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#6
I don't think it's a coincidence that the B1G contract comes up right around 2023.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma have confirmed extension of the GOR, although they have been asked to do so.

If the B1G were to talk sweetly to, say, KU, I think Oklahoma would fall in short order, compelling Texas to give up the ghost.

Take those three, then it might be time to finish off the NE Corridor. Hence, UConn.
If the Big Ten manages to pull that off, they'll never have to worry about the SEC.
 
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I don't think it's a coincidence that the B1G contract comes up right around 2023.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma have confirmed extension of the GOR, although they have been asked to do so.

If the B1G were to talk sweetly to, say, KU, I think Oklahoma would fall in short order, compelling Texas to give up the ghost.

Take those three, then it might be time to finish off the NE Corridor. Hence, UConn.
Why would Texas or OU extend their current GORs? For that matter, why would any schools in the Big 12 (or any other conference) extend their rights when there are no new media rights being negotiated? Answer: they wouldn't because there is zero reason to. OU has a great set up with Fox Sports for it's T-3 content, UT has the LHN, and all of the other schools have arrangements ranging from regional Fox Sports to Iowa State having it's own 24 hour channel on cable covering the entire state and parts of the surrounding states. The Big 12 brings in more money per school than either the ACC or PAC 12 and that is before T-3 revenue. When you add in the cost savings of a fairly compact geographical area, the Big 12 schools are in really good shape from a financial position. Frankly, I don't think it was necessarily by design, but you could easily argue given the growing uncertainty of future network conference revenue stream the Big 12 is positioned best.
 
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#9
It always comes down to regular season games that folks want to view, nationally.

Those games have value.

The media and their advertisers love marqee match ups.
 

nelsonmuntz

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#10
While it won't help UConn, I do look forward to the day when KSU, TTU, ISU, Baylor, Okie Lite, TCU and especially WVU find themselves homeless.
 

CL82

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#11
While it won't help UConn, I do look forward to the day when KSU, TTU, ISU, Baylor, Okie Lite, TCU and especially WVU find themselves homeless.
It will probably help us. Either American picks up the a few more teams, or UConn joins the stragglers or in scheduling.
 
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#12
It will probably help us. Either American picks up the a few more teams, or UConn joins the stragglers or in scheduling.
2017 average attendance: ISU - 58,000, OSU - 57,000, WVU - 56,000, Tech - 55,000, & KSU - 51,000. Baylor & TCU were both at 44,000. The AAC averaged 29,000. The first five look nothing like an AAC school. Baylor & TCU perhaps, but they actually look more like ACC schools.
 

CL82

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#13
2017 average attendance: ISU - 58,000, OSU - 57,000, WVU - 56,000, Tech - 55,000, & KSU - 51,000. Baylor & TCU were both at 44,000. The AAC averaged 29,000. The first five look nothing like an AAC school. Baylor & TCU perhaps, but they actually look more like ACC schools.
If the Big 12 collapses, where do these schools go? Remember in the last Big 12 scare KU & KSU and others were looking to join the Big East.
 
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#14
If the Big 12 collapses, where do these schools go? Remember in the last Big 12 scare KU & KSU and others were looking to join the Big East.
A lot has changed since 2010. Namely, the Big 12 schools are getting very good media income while still maintaining round robin competition and nationally viable teams. Unless something happens to drastically alter the Big 12's income relative to the other four major conferences, I doubt the conference collapses. Money drives everything...witness the ever growing fissures in the PAC 12. If there are changes coming, I think it would involve some cooperation between the PAC 12 and the Big 12 in regards to the PAC 12 network.
 

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#15
A lot has changed since 2010. Namely, the Big 12 schools are getting very good media income while still maintaining round robin competition and nationally viable teams. Unless something happens to drastically alter the Big 12's income relative to the other four major conferences, I doubt the conference collapses. Money drives everything...witness the ever growing fissures in the PAC 12. If there are changes coming, I think it would involve some cooperation between the PAC 12 and the Big 12 in regards to the PAC 12 network.
Doesnt the B12 media deal expire sometime around 2023? Is it realistic in the age of declining cable boxes to assume their next media rights deal will be nearly as lucrative? The B1G, SEC and now ACC have long term media deals running well past 2030, but I thought the B12 does not.
 
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#16
Doesnt the B12 media deal expire sometime around 2023? Is it realistic in the age of declining cable boxes to assume their next media rights deal will be nearly as lucrative? The B1G, SEC and now ACC have long term media deals running well past 2030, but I thought the B12 does not.
The Big 10's deal is the first one to come up (2022-23), then the PAC 12 (2023-24) & then the Big 12 (2024-25). Andy Staples had a pretty interesting piece recently on how the future may look. Tier 1 & 2 deals aren't predicated on cable subscribers, but currently conference networks are.

Can college football take notes from the WWE's TV deal?
 

CL82

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#17
A lot has changed since 2010. Namely, the Big 12 schools are getting very good media income while still maintaining round robin competition and nationally viable teams. Unless something happens to drastically alter the Big 12's income relative to the other four major conferences, I doubt the conference collapses. Money drives everything...witness the ever growing fissures in the PAC 12. If there are changes coming, I think it would involve some cooperation between the PAC 12 and the Big 12 in regards to the PAC 12 network.
If all stays the same, there would be no reason for a change, but as @Exit 4 notes the media deal will expire in 5 years. Neither OU or Texas have agreed to extend the GOR beyond that. If either leaves, the conference is in trouble. If both leave it's media value drops dramatically and it's status as a P5 conference is questionable.

That's probably a good thing for UConn for the reasons noted above.
 
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#18
If all stays the same, there would be no reason for a change, but as @Exit 4 notes the media deal will expire in 5 years. Neither OU or Texas have agreed to extend the GOR beyond that. If either leaves, the conference is in trouble. If both leave it's media value drops dramatically and it's status as a P5 conference is questionable.

That's probably a good thing for UConn for the reasons noted above.
Both the Big 10 & PAC 12 deals come up before the Big 12's and none of the schools in those conferences have extended GORs past the current deal. Why would OU or UT? Or any school for that matter? No doubt the Big 12 is less valuable without either the Sooners or the Longhorns.
 

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#19
The Big 10's deal is the first one to come up (2022-23), then the PAC 12 (2023-24) & then the Big 12 (2024-25). Andy Staples had a pretty interesting piece recently on how the future may look. Tier 1 & 2 deals aren't predicated on cable subscribers, but currently conference networks are.

Can college football take notes from the WWE's TV deal?
I’m not an expert on cable / media rights, but story is just flat out ignoring the the real implications of cord cutting.
 
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#20
I’m not an expert on cable / media rights, but story is just flat out ignoring the the real implications of cord cutting.
People aren't cutting cords to avoid over the air networks like ABC/CBS/NBC, etc...They are doing it to avoid paying for things they don't watch like ESPN, conference networks, and all the other stuff that demand a premium.
 

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People aren't cutting cords to avoid over the air networks like ABC/CBS/NBC, etc...They are doing it to avoid paying for things they don't watch like ESPN, conference networks, and all the other stuff that demand a premium.
So you are saying people are cutting their cords to avoid costly channels like ESPN, but that issue has no impact on the ability for ABC/CBS/NBC to acquire new media deals at new lofty prices? For starters the broadcast channels also collect subscriber income as well...and then there are other flaws here.....

Its difficult to predict how any media company will bid sports rights if they are willing to take it on as a loss leader. The situation is a wild card, but I think its hard to be optimistic about the future media contracts when all the low hanging fruit is receding (ie all those cable households that for decades paid for sports programming they didn't watch continues to melt away).
 
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So you are saying people are cutting their cords to avoid costly channels like ESPN, but that issue has no impact on the ability for ABC/CBS/NBC to acquire new media deals at new lofty prices? For starters the broadcast channels also collect subscriber income as well...and then there are other flaws here.....

Its difficult to predict how any media company will bid sports rights if they are willing to take it on as a loss leader. The situation is a wild card, but I think its hard to be optimistic about the future media contracts when all the low hanging fruit is receding (ie all those cable households that for decades paid for sports programming they didn't watch continues to melt away).
I'm saying the Staples' article makes sense and the new deal with WWE supports his position that premium networks that rely on subscriber fees as the primary revenue driver will bear the brunt of disinterested cord cutters.
 

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#23
I'm saying the Staples' article makes sense and the new deal with WWE supports his position that premium networks that rely on subscriber fees as the primary revenue driver will bear the brunt of disinterested cord cutters.
There are some trends to consider from the Fox investment in WWE, but I think the author interpreted them incorrectly. This was just about Fox looking to have a stable Friday night program which is more cost effective than new show development. Rabbit ears are not about to quickly restore meaningful economic advantage to broadcast tv.
 

nelsonmuntz

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#24
2017 average attendance: ISU - 58,000, OSU - 57,000, WVU - 56,000, Tech - 55,000, & KSU - 51,000. Baylor & TCU were both at 44,000. The AAC averaged 29,000. The first five look nothing like an AAC school. Baylor & TCU perhaps, but they actually look more like ACC schools.
Those attendance numbers don't mean squat. UConn regularly sold out Rentschler, and filled the XL center and Gampel almost every conference game in the Big East. It has been a different story in the AAC. You will learn soon enough.
 

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#25
2017 average attendance: ISU - 58,000, OSU - 57,000, WVU - 56,000, Tech - 55,000, & KSU - 51,000. Baylor & TCU were both at 44,000. The AAC averaged 29,000. The first five look nothing like an AAC school. Baylor & TCU perhaps, but they actually look more like ACC schools.
I promise you that there isn’t an attendance number that will save the second-best program in Iowa from oblivion should the Big 12 implode.
 

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