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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 4820332, member: 12088"] If I take [USER=10934]@GamecockFam[/USER]'s argument seriously ("But honestly nobody's portfolio is complete at this point in the season so it's all up in the air") and I do, then [B]no one is a 1st team All American at this juncture[/B]. What I haven't forgotten or called into question yet, is that none of these awards are handed out until the end of the season. Until then, it's all just prophecy. Citing stats and current records here is like trying to get a refund from someone who's looking into a crystal ball because you don't like the future she sees. Now, I have nothing against looking into crystal balls. I do it all the time, and so are all the rest of us who are speculating about AAs and NPOYs. There's little else to do at this point in December. The data we have access to is mainly based on OOC games against cupcakes. The surprise revelations occur in such games only when they aren't the blowouts we expect. Take the Iowa-ISU game. This should have been a blowout -- one of the premier guards on a team stacked with guards against a team whose pg is out with an injury, whose backups are quite weak and whose only offensive tactic in the second half was to run a very slow developing clearout for Addy Brown. That this wasn't a blowout speaks volumes about where Iowa really is these days. I don't mean Iowa won't get better. I'm sure they'll come back into form. But if we want to cherry pick data from Caitlin's hi-volume low percentage shooting on this particular evening and pretend we're not looking into a crystal ball, then I've got a bridge for sale. So, let's all look into our crystal balls and tell everyone what we see, because that's half the fun in December. [B]Here's what I see:[/B] Paige and Caitlin will turn out to be the main contenders for NPOY in the end. Why do I think this? Because Caitlin's offensive numbers will improve as the rest of her team gels around her. Paige is already having 11-14 shooting nights against teams better than ISU and a team just as discombobulated as Iowa seems to be. She's shooting over 50% for the season even though she was wearing a thumb splint until recently. But this isn't data -- it's crystal ball evidence of where her heart is. Anyone who watches the UNC game, or the MD game can't help but see that Paige is deadly serious about winning, at least as serious as Caitlin appears to be. [/QUOTE]

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