Interesting factoid - beating Uconn in the Semis ...

[UcMiami]

Someone in some thread posted that they had shown a graphic of the recent record for teams beating Uconn in the semi, then not winning an NC. I knew it was an issue but thought I would check the record - Uconn has been to 18 FF and won 11 titles in 11 NC game appearances so there are 7 teams who have beaten them in the semis. The record of those teams is 2 NCs and 5 runners up. And since Uconn won its third-fifth titles in 2002-4 and became UCONN, the record is 0-4, prior to that the record was 2-1.

2017 - Uconn favored lost to MSS who lost in a pretty even match-up to SC - MOV12
2012 - Uconn lost to favored ND who lost to Baylor who was favored - MOV 19
2011 - Uconn favored lost to ND who then lost as the favorite to TX A&M - MOV 6
2008 - Uconn favored lost to Stanford who lost to TN the favorite - MOV 16

2001 - Uconn lost to favored ND who beat Purdue
1996 - Uconn lost to TN who beat Georgia
1991 - Uconn lost to favored VA who lost to TN

In 1991 Uconn was a Cinderella at the FF so beating them was nothing special
In 1996 Uconn was reign champ but TN was pretty equal
In 2001 Uconn was walking wounded and ND had beaten Uconn during the season so was favored
By 2008 Uconn was sitting on 5 titles but was returning to the FF after missing the previous 3. They had beaten Stanford early in the year but had lost two starters to injury.
2011 - Fourth meeting with ND having beaten them 3 times already and having about a 5 year winning streak against them. ND and Tx A&M were both two seeds A&M knocking off Stanford and Baylor, ND knocking out TN and Uconn the four #1 seeds.
2012 - Baylor was the undefeated and favored to finally break through for the NC in the Griner Sims glory year.

It is interest - i do think ND, MSS, and Stanford all played really well against Uconn, but then did not play as well in the finals the last 4 times it has happened.

Three of the Semi losses have been in OT - 1996, 2012, and 2017

Be curious to see what the record for teams beating TN looks like.

 

[VAUConnFan]

It is interest - i do think ND, MSS, and Stanford all played really well against Uconn, but then did not play as well in the finals the last 4 times it has happened.

Be curious to see what the record for teams beating TN looks like.

Not sure it relates to this conversation, but it might be interesting to evaluate just how well the national champions have performed in the national championship game as opposed to what is perceived as normal for them, and in comparison to how these eventual national champions performed in the semifinal game. A case in point: UConn in 2002 was phenomenal in beating Tennessee in the semifinal and was barely average beating Oklahoma two nights later. If not for UConn's front line, especially Swin Cash's bounceback from a subpar semifinal game, we might not be comparing the 2002 team to all others.

 

[UcMiami]

Not sure it relates to this conversation, but it might be interesting to evaluate just how well the national champions have performed in the national championship game as opposed to what is perceived as normal for them, and in comparison to how these eventual national champions performed in the semifinal game. A case in point: UConn in 2002 was phenomenal in beating Tennessee in the semifinal and was barely average beating Oklahoma two nights later. If not for UConn's front line, especially Swin Cash's bounceback from a subpar semifinal game, we might not be comparing the 2002 team to all others.

Just on raw record 50% of teams that win the semi, go on to win the title. (Duh, who would have figured that! )
And on raw record 100% of the Uconn teams to win the semi have won the title.
And on raw record 22% of teams that beat Uconn in the semis have won the title.
And on raw record 0% of teams (4) that beat Uconn in the semis in the last 15 years have won a title.
While each year is unique unto itself, those numbers do jump out at you as being a significant aberration for whatever reason or as Mel Brooks would say they are Abby Normal.

 

[UcMiami]

OK - TN which really is the only comparable with 8 titles and 18 record at the FF is 13 NC games with 8 titles and 5 runner-ups, and 5 semi-final losses:
NC game losses - 4 to Uconn and 1 to USC. (1984, 1995, 2000, 2003, 2004)

Semi-losses:
1982 lost to LaTech who beat Cheney by 14
1986 lost to USC who lost to TX by 16
1988 lost to LaTech who beat Auburn by 2
2002 lost to Uconn who beat OK by 12
2005 lost to MSU who lost to Baylor by 22

So teams beating TN in the semis have gone 3-2 in NC games for a 60% win rate.

 

[UcMiami]

To cap this Tara/Stanford has made 12 final fours (I thought it was 13 but ...) with 2 NCs and 2 losses in the final so 8 losses in the semis - the finals loses were to TN in 2008 and Uconn in 2010, the wins were Auburn in 1990 and Western KY in 1992
Semi loses:
1991 lost to TN who beat VA in overtime by 3
1995 lost to CT who beat TN by 6
1997 lost to ODU who lost to TN by 9
2009 lost to CT who beat Louisville by 22
2011 lost to TAMU who beat ND by 6
2012 lost to Baylor who beat ND by 19
2014 lost to CT who beat ND by 21
2017 lost to SC who beat MSS by 12

So teams beating Tara/Stanford in the semis have a record of 7-1 in the finals for an 88% win rate.

NB figure out the 12/13 discrepancy - Stanford has been to the FF 13 times but one year was 1996 when Tara was on leave with the USA NT.
1996 lost to Georgia who lost to TN by 18

So Stanford semi opponent record in finals is 7-2 for an 78% rate.

Summary:
Uconn semi opponent record 22% (2-7)
Tenn semi opponent record 60% (3-2)
Standford semi opponent record 78% (7-2)