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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 5142385, member: 12088"] The use of statistics is based on the assumption that the future will resemble the past, which is mostly true. They are also a partial view, but if chosen carefully, as with Efficiency, they can be a good indicator. The tricky bit is capturing the progress or learning curve players usually make at this age. can’t do that without an additional probability component. It would be interesting to try to write such a formula for WCBB. It’d be something akin to what Bill James attempted. Like it or not, that‘s what reliance on stats means. They reveal a truth, but not an expansive one. [/QUOTE]