Huskies open -3

[willie99]

moved to 2.5 at some sites

Temple +6
Cinci -2.5
Tulsa +3
Yale +5.5
Stony Brook +13.5
Cuse P
PC -3

 

[MattMang23]

Yale has a semi-home game. I am thinking very hard about making that my 12-5 upset.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Assumed both UConn and Cinci would be favored. Nobody plays better defense.

 

[tzznandrew]

No surprise:

Advanced Metrics:
Colorado
Kenpom: 55
Sagarin: 49
BPI: 45
KPI: 38
LRMC: 54

UConn
Kenpom: 25
Sagarin: 28
BPI: 26
KPI: 32
LRMC: 26

This will be a tough game, but not a terrible draw. I'm not sold on the PAC, and every metric has us higher than them...even the RPI now (UConn 32, Colorado 35). I'm actually not entirely sure how they have the higher seed.

To be clear, our team is inconsistent and can absolutely lose this, but this is a pretty good first round matchup.

Or not. We're doooooooooooooomed!

 

[Leebo]

Kenpom has 68-65 UConn, with a 65% chance of victory.

 

[JMick]

I'm actually not entirely sure how they have the higher seed.

For whatever reason the committee loves the PAC this year. No rhyme or reason for it, the just really liked them

 

[tzznandrew]

For whatever reason the committee loves the PAC this year. No rhyme or reason for it, the just really liked them

Their RPI was hugely inflated, so in beating each other they all had great records vs. Top 25, 50, and 100. That's why...but it is stupid.

 

[JMick]

Their RPI was hugely inflated, so in beating each other they all had great records vs. Top 25, 50, and 100. That's why...but it is stupid.

Yeah they gamed it - which is why the committee shouldn't use it. If you can game a system like RPI it just tells you it's a bad metric.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Their RPI was hugely inflated, so in beating each other they all had great records vs. Top 25, 50, and 100. That's why...but it is stupid.

I mean this is what people constantly said about the Big East. And they were actually most right, besides UConn carrying the conference. Pitt, Nova, Georgetown, St. Johns, Marquette always ended up underperforming in March over the back half of the conference's life.

 

[Mots010]

No surprise:

Advanced Metrics:
Colorado
Kenpom: 55
Sagarin: 49
BPI: 45
KPI: 38
LRMC: 54

UConn
Kenpom: 25
Sagarin: 28
BPI: 26
KPI: 32
LRMC: 26

This will be a tough game, but not a terrible draw. I'm not sold on the PAC, and every metric has us higher than them...even the RPI now (UConn 32, Colorado 35). I'm actually not entirely sure how they have the higher seed.

To be clear, our team is inconsistent and can absolutely lose this, but this is a pretty good first round matchup.

Or not. We're doooooooooooooomed!

So how exactly does CU get seeded ahead of us? Conference ranking or SOS? We're ahead of them in every metric there is.

 

[tzznandrew]

So how exactly does CU get seeded ahead of us? Conference ranking or SOS? We're ahead of them in every metric there is.

More RPI 50 and RPI 100 wins? (1 more in each). Their win against Oregon?

Seriously, that's all I can come up with. I mean, we even have a higher NCSOS.

 

[tzznandrew]

I mean this is what people constantly said about the Big East. And they were actually most right, besides UConn carrying the conference. Pitt, Nova, Georgetown, St. Johns, Marquette always ended up underperforming in March over the back half of the conference's life.

Usually the Big East had some OOC scalps. Dig into the Pac...not a ton of big name wins there.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Usually the Big East had some OOC scalps. Dig into the Pac...not a ton of big name wins there.

Oregon beat Baylor
AZ beat Gonzaga
ASU beat Texas A&M
UCLA beat UK and Gonzaga
USC beat Wichita State (and Yale)
Utah beat Texas Tech and Duke
Washington split with Texas

 

[Tenspro2002]

The Colorado matchup is pretty good for us. This isn't a reason to be upset about the draw -- it's the overall #1 seed playing 3 hours from home in round 2.

 

[tzznandrew]

Oregon beat Baylor
AZ beat Gonzaga
ASU beat Texas A&M
UCLA beat UK and Gonzaga
USC beat Wichita State (and Yale)
Utah beat Texas Tech and Duke
Washington split with Texas

I highlighted the ones that were actually impressive. I don't think this is a huge list of impressive wins.

Just a comparison to try to prove my point.

Compare that list to:

ACC
UNC beat Maryland and Temple
Virginia beat West Virginia, Villanova and California
Miami beat Utah and Butler
Duke beat VCU, Yale, and Indiana
Syracuse beat UConn and TAMU.
FSU beat VCU
Georgia Tech beat VCU
Wake Forest beat Indiana

There are far more big wins here (UK is the best from the PAC at a 4 seed), whereas the ACC beat 1-2-3 seeds and beyond.

B1G
Indiana beat Notre Dame
Michigan State beat Kansas, Providence, and Louisville
Purdue beat Pitt and Vandy
Maryland beat UConn
Iowa beat Wichita State
Wisconsin beat Purdue, Syracuse and Temple
Ohio State beat Kentucky
Michigan beat Texas
Illinois beat Yale

BXII
Kansas beat Vandy
Oklahoma beat Wisconsin, Villanova, Hawaii
Texas beat UNC
Baylor beat Vandy
Iowa State beat Colorado, Iowa, Chatanooga, and Cincy

Frankly, were it not for Texas and Oklahoma's win, I'd start to think the Big 12 less impressive than initial thoughts...even then...

I picked the 3 strongest conferences, and I'd say they all had more impressive OOC wins than the PAC.

 

[willie99]

Vegas not giving the P12 as much respect as the committee has

3 higher seeded P12 teams are dawgs, CO, USC & OR ST

AZ & OR don't have an opponent yet, another oddity, 2 P12 schools get play in opponents

CA only favored by 6.5 over HI

FWIW

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

So how exactly does CU get seeded ahead of us? Conference ranking or SOS? We're ahead of them in every metric there is.

It makes sense that Colorado is higher....

 

[tzznandrew]

Vegas not giving the P12 as much respect as the committee has

3 higher seeded P12 teams are dawgs, CO, USC & OR ST

AZ & OR don't have an opponent yet, another oddity, 2 P12 schools get play in opponents

CA only favored by 6.5 over HI

FWIW

That'll be a popular 4-13 upset selection. The Pomeroy gap between between Cal and Hawai'i is 40 (21 to 61). In contrast, Kentucky-Stony Brook is 83 (8 to 91), ISU-Iona is 55 (18 to 73) and Duke-Wilmington is 52 (22 to 74).

Hawai'i's Pomeroy is right in line with Oregon State, Tulsa, Michigan, Colorado and Dayton, and better than Temple. In Sagarin there is a little more spread from those same teams, but Hawai'i is within the 3.31 range where he would favor them on Hawai'i's home court.

Kenpom:

54 Dayton
55 Colorado
56 Michigan
58 Tulsa
60 Oregon State
61 Hawai'i
86 Temple

Sagarin
37 Michigan
47 Dayton
49 Colorado
58 Oregon State
66 Tulsa
69 Hawai'i
85 Temple

For a 13 seed, that's awfully high.