How UConn Would Fare in Various FCS Conferences

[Purple Stein]

There's been some discussion around here lately about how UConn would perform against top level FCS competition like South Dakota State. So I ran three season sims to see how UConn would have fared last season in three different conferences - the CAA (the biggest "Northeast" FCS conference with teams like Maine, URI, UNH, etc.), the NEC (a low level FCS conference with CCSU, Sacred Heart, etc.) and the MVFC (the SEC of the FCS with all of the Dakotas).

To run the sims, I swapped a middle of the road team from each league and gave UConn their 2023-2024 schedule. I then used NCAA Game Sim to simulate last year's UConn against that team's 2023=2024 schedule. Finally, I placed UConn into the proper place in the standings for each league based on the results.

The sim thinks UConn is consistently middle of the road in these conferences. According to the sim they would probably end up ranked just outside the FCS top 25 (somewhere between 30-40). Last year, they were not an FCS playoff team in any of these 3 conferences.

Take this with a big grain of salt -- fun to create but hardly "truth." To me this is a helpful reminder that, perhaps, despite my optimism, I should have expected a team of UConn's caliber to go into a Big Ten stadium and get crushed.

Results of the 3 sims are below.

 

[Purple Stein]

UConn in the CAA

Team swapped out: William and Mary

Results (conference games italicized)

UConn 16 Campbell 17

Wofford 0 Uconn 14

UConn 16 Charleston Southern 10

Maine 7 UConn 0

UConn 21 Elon 14

UConn 13 Virginia 24

Towson 10 UConn 31

Monmouth 35 UConn 10

UConn 14 Albany 10

UConn 27 Hampton 14

Richmond 17 UConn 14



Record: 6-5

Conference Record: 4-4


Conference Standings (italicized indicates playoff qualifier)

1. Villanova 10-3 (7-1)

2. Albany 11-4 (7-1)

3. Richmond 9-4 (7-1)

4. Delaware 9-4 (6-2)

5. Elon 6-5 (6-2)

6. UConn 6-5 (4-4)

6. UNH 6-5 (4-4)

6. URI 6-5 (4-4)

9. Campbell 5-6 (4-4)

10. Towson 5-6 (4-4)

11. Hampton 5-6 (3-5)

12. Monmouth 4-7 (3-5)

13. Maine 2-9 (1-7)

14. NC A&T 1-10 (0-8)

15. Stony Brook 0-10 (0-8)



CAA In the FCS Playoffs (UConn does not qualify):

First Round:

Richmond 49 NC Central 27

Delaware 36 Lafayette 34


Second Round:

Albany 41 Richmond 13

Villanova 45 Youngstown State 28

Montana 49 Delaware 19

Quarterfinals:

Albany 30 Idaho 22

South Dakato Stae 23 Villanova 12


Semfinals:

South Dakota State 59 Albany 0

 

[Purple Stein]

UConn in the NEC

Team swapped out: Stonehill

Results (conference games italicized)

New Hampshire 38 UConn 7

UConn 3 CCSU 16

UConn 10 Georgetown 7

UConn 13 Fordham 20

St Francis 10 UConn 12

UConn 10 Merrimack 6

Sacred Heart 0 UConn 35

UConn 7 Wagner 10

Uconn 9 Duquesne 10

LIU 7 UConn 21


Record: 5-5

Conference Record: 4-3

Conference Standings (italicized indicates playoff qualifier)

1. Duquesne 7-5 (6-1)

2. UConn 5-5 (4-3)

3. Merrimack 5-6 (4-3)

4. St Francis (PA) 4-6 (4-3)

5. LIU 4-7 (4-3)

6. Wagner 4-7 (3-4)

7. Sacred Heart 2-9 (2-5)

8. CCSU 3-8 (1-6)


NEC in the FCS Playoffs (UConn does not qualify):

First Round:

Youngstown State 40 Duquesne 7

 

[Purple Stein]

UConn in the MVFC

Team swapped out: Illinois State

Results (conference games italicized)

Dayton 20 UConn 17

UConn 13 Western Illinois 17

UConn 9 Eastern Illinois 20

Lindenwood 13 UConn 20 (OT)

South Dakota State 24 UConn 12

Indiana State 3 UConn 21

UConn 3 Youngstown State 7

Northern Iowa 31 UConn 7

UConn 13 Missouri State 10

Murray State 14 UConn 28

UConn 3 North Dakota 28

Record: 4-7

Conference Record: 3-5

Conference Standings (italicized indicates playoff qualifier)

1. SDSU 15-0 (8-0)

2. South Dakota 10-3 (7-1)

3. NDSU 11-4 (5-3)

4. Youngstown State 8-5 (5-3)

5. North Dakota 7-5 (5-3)

6. Northern Iowa 6-5 (5-3)

7. Southern Illinois 8-5 (4-4)

8. Missouri State 4-7 (3-5)

8. UConn 4-7 (3-5)

10. Murray State 2-9 (1-7)

11. Indiana State 1-10 (1-7)

12. Western Illinois 0-11 (0-8) – but beat us Week 2 in the sim!


MVFC in the FCS Playoffs (UConn does not qualify):

First Round:

Youngstown State 40 Duquesne 7

Southern Illinois 35 Nicholls 0

North Dakota State 66 Drake 3

Sacramento State 42 North Dakota 35


Second Round:

North Dakota State 35 Montana State 34

South Dakota 34 Sacramento State 24

South Dakota State 41 Mercer 0

Villanova 45 Youngstown State 28

Idaho 20 Southern Illinois 17


Quarterfinals:

South Dakota State 23 Villanova 12

North Dakota State 45 South Dakota 17


Semifinals:

Montana 31 North Dakota State 29

South Dakota State 59 Albany 0


Finals:

South Dakota State 23 Montana 3

 

[AllHusky]

UConn in the MVFC

Team swapped out: Illinois State

Results (conference games italicized)

Dayton 20 UConn 17

UConn 13 Western Illinois 17

UConn 9 Eastern Illinois 20

Lindenwood 13 UConn 20 (OT)

South Dakota State 24 UConn 12

Indiana State 3 UConn 21

UConn 3 Youngstown State 7

Northern Iowa 31 UConn 7

UConn 13 Missouri State 10

Murray State 14 UConn 28

UConn 3 North Dakota 28

Record: 4-7

Conference Record: 3-5

Conference Standings (italicized indicates playoff qualifier)

1. SDSU 15-0 (8-0)

2. South Dakota 10-3 (7-1)

3. NDSU 11-4 (5-3)

4. Youngstown State 8-5 (5-3)

5. North Dakota 7-5 (5-3)

6. Northern Iowa 6-5 (5-3)

7. Southern Illinois 8-5 (4-4)

8. Missouri State 4-7 (3-5)

8. UConn 4-7 (3-5)

10. Murray State 2-9 (1-7)

11. Indiana State 1-10 (1-7)

12. Western Illinois 0-11 (0-8) – but beat us Week 2 in the sim!


MVFC in the FCS Playoffs (UConn does not qualify):

First Round:

Youngstown State 40 Duquesne 7

Southern Illinois 35 Nicholls 0

North Dakota State 66 Drake 3

Sacramento State 42 North Dakota 35


Second Round:

North Dakota State 35 Montana State 34

South Dakota 34 Sacramento State 24

South Dakota State 41 Mercer 0

Villanova 45 Youngstown State 28

Idaho 20 Southern Illinois 17


Quarterfinals:

South Dakota State 23 Villanova 12

North Dakota State 45 South Dakota 17


Semifinals:

Montana 31 North Dakota State 29

South Dakota State 59 Albany 0


Finals:

South Dakota State 23 Montana 3

Don’t know how real or accurate this is, but it made me physically ill. OMG

 

[storrsroars]

Don’t know how real or accurate this is, but it made me physically ill. OMG

But we beat Merrimack!