How Swofford Delivered UConn to the B1G (and buried the ACC).

[RegisteredUconn]

So, Louisville crashed UConn's welcome to the ACC soiree and took our place in the seat of honor. Yippee! Swofford's latest victory will prove to be the most pyrric since Napoleon sacked Moscow and we will soon renew our fledgling rivalry with Rutgers in the B1G.

Forget football driving the bus. Revenues drive the bus, eyeballs drive revenues, and geography delivers eyeballs. The question is: How does that translate into the B1G wanting us? Why would they share their already tasty pie with our extra mouth even if we bring the "small potatoes" Hartford Metro region with us?

Q: What eyeballs is the B1G eyeballing?
A: The Northeast Super Region.

More than 80% of the nation's population reside in so-called super regions. The table below summarizes one way that super regions have been organized. It identifies eleven areas together with the estimated 2025 populations for each. I've added the universities (of what used to be called the BCS conferences) that serve each and the population per school (P/S). A few schools don't fit any region well. Those are Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Utah. Penn State isn't included because it sits between the Great Lakes and Northeast super regions and I couldn't decide where to place it.

Super Regions​

2025 Population (proj., in millions)​

BCS Schools Located in Region​

​

Great Lakes, population 64.3
Ohio St., Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Louisville, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Iowa, Iowa State

Northeast population, 58.1
Maryland, BCU, UConn, Rutgers, Virginia

Southern California, population 34.7
UCLA, Southern Cal.

Texas Triangle, population 26.8
Texas, TCU, Baylor, Texas A&M

​

Florida, population 21.4
Florida, Florida St., Miami, USF

​

Piedmont Atlantic, population 20.5
Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia. Tech

​

Northern California, population 17.3
California, Stanford

​

Gulf Coast, population 15.8
LSU, Mississippi, Mississipps St., Arkansas

​

Cascadia' population 10.2
Oregon, Oregon St., Washingotn, Wash St.

​

Arizona Sun Corridor, population 7.4
Arizona, Arizona St.

​

Front Range, population 6.8
Colorado

​

The Northeast has just been sitting there waiting to be plucked. The second greatest population concentration with the second largest population per located school remained until last month largely open for the taking. The only two suitable suitor for the nations largest source of untapped eyeballs were the ACC and the B1G.

Capturing the Northeast Super Region would be much more valuable to either conference than securing another Nebraska or Pitt/Syracuse/Louisville. Interestingly the two conferences have taken dramatically different approaches to winning it. Before the battle began, the ACC held the southern flank and the B1G the western flank.

The ACC appeared to concentrate on surrounding the region, taking Boston College first then Syracuse and Pitt along with the northern portion of its existing territory. Their next move would appear to be penetrate the area they surrounded.

The B1G's strategy seems to be to strike at the heart of the region first with Maryland and Rutgers. Their next move would be to secure their northern and southern flanks with UConn and Virginia.

The ACC fumbled badly by trying to protect flanks first. Had they grabbed grab Rutgers and UConn, protected by a $50MM buyout (and BCU to the north), they would have owned the Northeast Super Region and 50 million sets of eyes. Pitt and Syracuse were the schools that were available to add later. Now Rutgers is gone and UConn is next because Swofford couldn't or wouldn't learn. He did the same thing he did when missing the UConn/Rutgers boat. He protected a flank with Louisville instead of securing the core with UConn.

 

[UConnRock]

A well presented and thought provoking argument. Swofford got extremely lucky that VA. Tech was forced upon the ACC lieu of Syracuse during the first raid. VA Tech has been the only consistent quality team in the new ACC, until this year.

The decision to invite 'Cuse and Pitt, and Louisville rather than UConn and Rutgers could be the biggest folly in expansion history should the B1G decide to grab UConn. Swofford will have neglected the most populous area in the country for little or no financial or atetic gain. Swofford could have wrapped up the northeast in a nice bow with 'Cuse, UConn and Rutgers. Throwing in the academic towel with Louisville makes the 'Pitt/'cuse move even more questionable.
Swofford thought he was making proactive strategic moves, but in retrospect he may be taken to the cleaners by Delany.

 

[ctchamps]

Real nice write up. It can be argued that Delany has incentive to get the population centers with the Big Ten network whereas the ACC didn't have that same incentive.

If that's the case than it was Fox that out played ESPN in this game of Risk!!!

 

[RegisteredUconn]

The decision to invite 'Cuse and Pitt, and Louisville rather than UConn and Rutgers could be the biggest folly in expansion history should the B1G decide to grab UConn.

It's not just the failure to secure UConn, although that will help solidify the B1G in the Northeast. It's the upcoming loss of Virginia that starts the stampede and sends FSU et. al. to safer harbors and returns the ACC to competing with whatever is left of the Big East.

 

[Dann]

Real nice write up. It can be argued that Delany has incentive to get the population centers with the Big Ten network whereas the ACC didn't have that same incentive.

If that's the case than it was Fox that out played ESPN in this game of Risk!!!

i have been saying it, fox is taking espon to the shed right now. that why espn pumps and goes quiet.

 

[Drumguy]

Are you LISTENING BIG??? Nice analysis.

 

[RoderickSpode]

Great post. As for Louisville, it is interesting that the ACC saw fit to grab a second fiddle school (in a state the SEC owns now and forever) at the outer rim of the midwest megaregion (which the B1G owns now and forever) when they could have asserted their dominance throughout the northeast corridor. As many have said, it really must have been a desperate measure to keep the ACC fb schools happy -- but Swofford should have been smart enough to realize that no real football school will ever be happy in the ACC.

 

[BobbyPs Ghost]

Great post. As for Louisville, it is interesting that the ACC saw fit to grab a second fiddle school (in a state the SEC owns now and forever) at the outer rim of the midwest megaregion (which the B1G owns now and forever) when they could have asserted their dominance throughout the northeast corridor. As many have said, it really must have been a desperate measure to keep the ACC fb schools happy -- but Swofford should have been smart enough to realize that no real football school will ever be happy in the ACC.

Really hope that UConn gets in the ACC or B1G but, isn't it time you quit taking shots at Louisville? You're not helping your cause with the non-stop b*tching...

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Adding my two cents; If the SEC were to add a school in Virginia and one in North Carolina, they would add two substantial population regions, occupy basically the southern half of the Atlantic coast, complete a map from the eastern seaboard across the Mississippi (not to mention including the entire confederacy) and end up with a nice round sixteen members. In my humble opinion this has to be somewhere near the front of the SEC's vision.

 

[husky91]

I agree, SEC will make runs for UVA, UNC and settle for NCST, VT. Slive is the best, knows his product, has a vision.

Adding my two cents; If the SEC were to add a school in Virginia and one in North Carolina, they would add two substantial population regions, occupy basically the southern half of the Atlantic coast, complete a map from the eastern seaboard across the Mississippi (not to mention including the entire confederacy) and end up with a nice round sixteen members. In mt humble opinion this has to be somewhere near the front of the SEC's vision.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I been saying this for two years.
We've always made strategic sense.
Densly populated small area with access to both New York and Boston.
All of New England the size of a midwestern state.
If the morons who run the University had pushed this("We are New England" )agenda starting two years ago.
Conferences would be fighting over us.
War is a good analogy if the B1G takes us the ACC northern schools would be waving a white flag. They are POWs
I've got to believe someone in that other conference is smart enough to figure it out.
Think of the battle of Gettysburg. Conn is Little Round Top Virginnia is Culps Hill.
There will only be one major Football Power in New England and even Maniacs will root for or against us when we play the Michigans and Ohio States. But they will be watching.

 

[Robertelamin]

Swofford should have invited UConn, Rutgers, Louisville, WVU, Pitt and Cuse at the same time. Be the first to 16, start a network from Miami to Maine, renegotiate their contract and move their headquarters from freaking Greensboro to DC. Hope that keeping WVU and Louisville away from the Big 12 would be enough for the Texas and Oklahoma to reconsider their options for leaving instead of adding Houston or SMU to the conference. When the options are becoming more and more limited he should have just taken the best schools left. Now they will be back filling with Temple, USF, ect. Who knows if this would have worked but it is better than just adding Pitt and Cuse just for the sake of adding them. If your going to add those two then just go all in. They thought Rutgers and WVU would be there for the picking whenever they wanted and they were wrong.

 

[Danzz]

It's not just the failure to secure UConn, although that will help solidify the B1G in the Northeast. It's the upcoming loss of Virginia that starts the stampede and sends FSU et. al. to safer harbors and returns the ACC to competing with whatever is left of the Big East.

The thing about FSU is that they haven't been invited anywhere. I don't see Florida , LSU, Vanderbilt and others ever supporting FSU for an SEC invitation. IMO, if FSU doesn't go to the Big 12 they will be stuck in the ACC.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

So, Louisville crashed UConn's welcome to the ACC soiree and took our place in the seat of honor. Yippee! Swofford's latest victory will prove to be the most pyrric since Napoleon sacked Moscow and we will soon renew our fledgling rivalry with Rutgers in the B1G.

Forget football driving the bus. Revenues drive the bus, eyeballs drive revenues, and geography delivers eyeballs. The question is: How does that translate into the B1G wanting us? Why would they share their already tasty pie with our extra mouth even if we bring the "small potatoes" Hartford Metro region with us?

Q: What eyeballs is the B1G eyeballing?
A: The Northeast Super Region.

More than 80% of the nation's population reside in so-called super regions. The table below summarizes one way that super regions have been organized. It identifies eleven areas together with the estimated 2025 populations for each. I've added the universities (of what used to be called the BCS conferences) that serve each and the population per school (P/S). A few schools don't fit any region well. Those are Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Utah. Penn State isn't included because it sits between the Great Lakes and Northeast super regions and I couldn't decide where to place it.

Super Regions​

2025 Population (proj., in millions)​

BCS Schools Located in Region​

​

Great Lakes, population 64.3
Ohio St., Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Louisville, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Iowa, Iowa State

Northeast population, 58.1
Maryland, BCU, UConn, Rutgers, Virginia

Southern California, population 34.7
UCLA, Southern Cal.

Texas Triangle, population 26.8
Texas, TCU, Baylor, Texas A&M

​

Florida, population 21.4
Florida, Florida St., Miami, USF

​

Piedmont Atlantic, population 20.5
Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia. Tech

​

Northern California, population 17.3
California, Stanford

​

Gulf Coast, population 15.8
LSU, Mississippi, Mississipps St., Arkansas

​

Cascadia' population 10.2
Oregon, Oregon St., Washingotn, Wash St.

​

Arizona Sun Corridor, population 7.4
Arizona, Arizona St.

​

Front Range, population 6.8
Colorado

​

The Northeast has just been sitting there waiting to be plucked. The second greatest population concentration with the second largest population per located school remained until last month largely open for the taking. The only two suitable suitor for the nations largest source of untapped eyeballs were the ACC and the B1G.

Capturing the Northeast Super Region would be much more valuable to either conference than securing another Nebraska or Pitt/Syracuse/Louisville. Interestingly the two conferences have taken dramatically different approaches to winning it. Before the battle began, the ACC held the southern flank and the B1G the western flank.

The ACC appeared to concentrate on surrounding the region, taking Boston College first then Syracuse and Pitt along with the northern portion of its existing territory. Their next move would appear to be penetrate the area they surrounded.

The B1G's strategy seems to be to strike at the heart of the region first with Maryland and Rutgers. Their next move would be to secure their northern and southern flanks with UConn and Virginia.

The ACC fumbled badly by trying to protect flanks first. Had they grabbed grab Rutgers and UConn, protected by a $50MM buyout (and BCU to the north), they would have owned the Northeast Super Region and 50 million sets of eyes. Pitt and Syracuse were the schools that were available to add later. Now Rutgers is gone and UConn is next because Swofford couldn't or wouldn't learn. He did the same thing he did when missing the UConn/Rutgers boat. He protected a flank with Louisville instead of securing the core with UConn.

Hope you sent this to all of the Big 10 ADs, Delany and the Big 10 network . Send it to Herbst and Ward M too. Good job.

 

[Dove]

Reg, thank you for posting this great piece. I will go to bed smiling. I really feel UConn is going to land in the right spot. Herbst is radiating class within the recent dust-up cause by the rednecks in the nACC offices. Football aside right now, UConn is a jewel for any BCS conference.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

The thing about FSU is that they haven't been invited anywhere. I don't see Florida , LSU, Vanderbilt and others ever supporting FSU for an SEC invitation. IMO, if FSU doesn't go to the Big 12 they will be stuck in the ACC.

If Louisville taught anybody anything it's that people shouldn't assume. These athletic directors and college administrators are open to reason and persuasion. Florida's population is enormous. There are more than enough TV sets in that state to support two teams in the SEC. Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee all have two SEC schools. Much as I hate the influence peddling game, Florida legislators affect SEC decisions. If any state should be able to sway that conference, it's Florida. If anybody in the SEC assums the state is invulnerable while Florida State roams unsecured, they are taking a tremendous risk.

 

[Marty Jackson]

So, Louisville crashed UConn's welcome to the ACC soiree and took our place in the seat of honor. Yippee! Swofford's latest victory will prove to be the most pyrric since Napoleon sacked Moscow and we will soon renew our fledgling rivalry with Rutgers in the B1G.

Forget football driving the bus. Revenues drive the bus, eyeballs drive revenues, and geography delivers eyeballs. The question is: How does that translate into the B1G wanting us? Why would they share their already tasty pie with our extra mouth even if we bring the "small potatoes" Hartford Metro region with us?

Q: What eyeballs is the B1G eyeballing?
A: The Northeast Super Region.

More than 80% of the nation's population reside in so-called super regions. The table below summarizes one way that super regions have been organized. It identifies eleven areas together with the estimated 2025 populations for each. I've added the universities (of what used to be called the BCS conferences) that serve each and the population per school (P/S). A few schools don't fit any region well. Those are Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Utah. Penn State isn't included because it sits between the Great Lakes and Northeast super regions and I couldn't decide where to place it.

Super Regions​

2025 Population (proj., in millions)​

BCS Schools Located in Region​

​

Great Lakes, population 64.3
Ohio St., Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Louisville, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Iowa, Iowa State

Northeast population, 58.1
Maryland, BCU, UConn, Rutgers, Virginia

Southern California, population 34.7
UCLA, Southern Cal.

Texas Triangle, population 26.8
Texas, TCU, Baylor, Texas A&M

​

Florida, population 21.4
Florida, Florida St., Miami, USF

​

Piedmont Atlantic, population 20.5
Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia. Tech

​

Northern California, population 17.3
California, Stanford

​

Gulf Coast, population 15.8
LSU, Mississippi, Mississipps St., Arkansas

​

Cascadia' population 10.2
Oregon, Oregon St., Washingotn, Wash St.

​

Arizona Sun Corridor, population 7.4
Arizona, Arizona St.

​

Front Range, population 6.8
Colorado

​

The Northeast has just been sitting there waiting to be plucked. The second greatest population concentration with the second largest population per located school remained until last month largely open for the taking. The only two suitable suitor for the nations largest source of untapped eyeballs were the ACC and the B1G.

Capturing the Northeast Super Region would be much more valuable to either conference than securing another Nebraska or Pitt/Syracuse/Louisville. Interestingly the two conferences have taken dramatically different approaches to winning it. Before the battle began, the ACC held the southern flank and the B1G the western flank.

The ACC appeared to concentrate on surrounding the region, taking Boston College first then Syracuse and Pitt along with the northern portion of its existing territory. Their next move would appear to be penetrate the area they surrounded.

The B1G's strategy seems to be to strike at the heart of the region first with Maryland and Rutgers. Their next move would be to secure their northern and southern flanks with UConn and Virginia.

The ACC fumbled badly by trying to protect flanks first. Had they grabbed grab Rutgers and UConn, protected by a $50MM buyout (and BCU to the north), they would have owned the Northeast Super Region and 50 million sets of eyes. Pitt and Syracuse were the schools that were available to add later. Now Rutgers is gone and UConn is next because Swofford couldn't or wouldn't learn. He did the same thing he did when missing the UConn/Rutgers boat. He protected a flank with Louisville instead of securing the core with UConn.

psu?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Reg, thank you for posting this great piece. I will go to bed smiling. I really feel UConn is going to land in the right spot. Herbst is radiating class within the recent dust-up cause by the rednecks in the nACC offices. Football aside right now, UConn is a jewel for any BCS conference.

I won't go so far as to call us a jewel just yet. What is true is that in the past twenty or so years our "desirability" trajectory has been one of the fastest growing of any major university. In fact, I'm not so sure we would have been considered a major university in 1992. Our combination of academics and athletics now place us squarely in the middle of the top sixty or so major colleges. That accomplishment shouldn't be under appreciated or under played. Our biggest negative at the moment is a lack of significant achievement in football.

It's true we've gone from nowhere to a BCS bowl in less than ten years but I doubt there are many fans not in Storrs who know that and those that do pooh-pooh it because somebody from the Big East had to go even if our conference sucks (that's been the perception anyway and because that perception hasn't been successfully countered, it's now true).

It's also true that we throttled and SEC team in a bowl game and nobody can ascribe that to the conference's strength or lack thereof.

What we need is for someone to look at what makes Brain Kelley Brain Kelley or Urban Meyer Urban Meyer. How does Kelley go from nowheresville Ohio to the University of Cincinnati to leading Notre Dame to an undefeated regular season and a spot in the National Championship Game? How does Meyer take Utah to prominence then win multiple championships at Florida, and now bring Ohio State storming back? They guy's freaking Vince Lombardi for crying out loud. For that matter, how did Calhoun and Auriemma do it? Right now, if I'm Manuel, I'd seriously consider naming Geno to head the committee to find Pasqualoni's replacement. Yeah I know, there are a million reasons why that's a horrible idea.

Thx for the compliment, btw.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I been saying this for two years.
We've always made strategic sense.
Densly populated small area with access to both New York and Boston.
All of New England the size of a midwestern state.
If the morons who run the University had pushed this("We are New England" )agenda starting two years ago.
Conferences would be fighting over us.
War is a good analogy if the B1G takes us the ACC northern schools would be waving a white flag. They are POWs
I've got to believe someone in that other conference is smart enough to figure it out.
Think of the battle of Gettysburg. Conn is Little Round Top Virginnia is Culps Hill.
There will only be one major Football Power in New England and even Maniacs will root for or against us when we play the Michigans and Ohio States. But they will be watching.

I couldn't agree with you more that we should be positioning ourselves to be New England's university. Undoubtedly it worries some who are paying the bills that touting ourselves that way diminishes the importance of Connecticut as an entity. That is parochial and very short-sighted. The best way to keep UConn relevant is to have the entire region embrace us as their athletic standard bearer. We should send our basketball teams to some combination of Kingston, Amherst, Burlington, Durham (NH), and Orono every year.

If New England were a state it would be the 17th largest in area and 5th largest in population. It is currently served by one-and-one-half national universities (I absolutely do not believe that BC is a major player athletically nor is there any reasonable path for them to become one...if we have any potential competition in the region it is UMass we should look out for).

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Swofford should have invited UConn, Rutgers, Louisville, WVU, Pitt and Cuse at the same time. Be the first to 16, start a network from Miami to Maine, renegotiate their contract and move their headquarters from freaking Greensboro to DC. Hope that keeping WVU and Louisville away from the Big 12 would be enough for the Texas and Oklahoma to reconsider their options for leaving instead of adding Houston or SMU to the conference. When the options are becoming more and more limited he should have just taken the best schools left. Now they will be back filling with Temple, USF, ect. Who knows if this would have worked but it is better than just adding Pitt and Cuse just for the sake of adding them. If your going to add those two then just go all in. They thought Rutgers and WVU would be there for the picking whenever they wanted and they were wrong.

In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Compared to Providence, Greensboro looks like a cyclops.

Ultimately Swofford didn't lead. He found a (relatively) rich kid (the Big East) he could bully and he did. He discovered he could take the Big East's lunch money and that would keep him fed. But those days are over, he's still hungry, and likely to become even more so as even bigger kids discover his lunch money has been left lying around.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

psu?

Meaning what region is Penn State in? Somewhere in that mess, I explained that Happy Valley lies about half-way between the Great Lakes and Northeast and I couldn't decide which one to place it in so I left it out. The entire post was much more readable before I discovered my table that looked so good before I posted it turned out to be a shambles and I rushed to repair it because I was heading out. Basically, I'm saying I up a little because I was chasing my dog who was eating my homework. Hey, at least I'm not blaming you.

 

[Adios]

Nice to see someone repost a map I posted.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Nice to see someone repost a map I posted.

I think I posted that map before myself (on the other site...or perhaps the one before that...)

 

[Marty Jackson]

Meaning what region is Penn State in? Somewhere in that mess, I explained that Happy Valley lies about half-way between the Great Lakes and Northeast and I couldn't decide which one to place it in so I left it out. The entire post was much more readable before I discovered my table that looked so good ibefore I posted it turned out to be a shambles and I rushed to repair it because I was heading out. Basically, I'm saying I up a little because I was chasing my dog who was eating my homework. Hey, at least I'm not blaming you.

i missed it...
i yhink you have to put it in the northeast. yes its big 10, but its eastern pa (philly)

 

[Marty Jackson]

I think I posted that map before myself (on the other site...or perhaps the one before that...)

thought it looked familiar