How rare it is to be a 5-star (or even a 2-, 3-, or 4-star) college football recruit...

[huskymedic]

How rare it is to be a 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-star recruit

>>... using class of 2018 data from Rivals, if we settle on 300,000 football-playing seniors as a fair estimate.

• 30 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
• 380 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
• 1,328 three-stars, or 0.44 percent of the class
• 1,859 two-stars, or 0.62 percent of the class
• 296,403 unrated, or 98.88 percent of the class

Players rated three-stars and up, who make up almost all of Power 5 recruiting classes, are roughly 0.6 percent of seniors playing high school football. No matter what the exact number of senior high school players nationwide is, not more than one in 100 gets any kind of star rating. Most who play in college are unrated recruits filling out lower-division rosters.<<

 

[billybud]

Goes to illustrate the athletic divide...Alabama's current class has 25 kids rated 4 star or better (Rivals).

 

[uconnbill]

Look at the rankings of Patriots and Rams players when they were in High School
The average star rating of the Patriots offense is 2.64, which makes it a team full of players who had chips on their shoulders coming out of high school. Defense is average star ranking of 2.82.

The rest of the article

 

[billybud]

Ram's offense:

"Six of the 11 starters had four or more stars coming out of high school, but Saffold and Higbee came a long way after being counted out during high school. The average star rating of the Rams offense is 3.55, which suggests that the recruiting services pegged most of the players right."

The Pat's defense has 5 of 11 starters with 4 stars or more.

It should be a fun game...

 

[Pudge]

Ram's offense:

"Six of the 11 starters had four or more stars coming out of high school, but Saffold and Higbee came a long way after being counted out during high school. The average star rating of the Rams offense is 3.55, which suggests that the recruiting services pegged most of the players right."

The Pat's defense has 5 of 11 starters with 4 stars or more.

It should be a fun game...

You're not helping here .... billybud

We have BY guys acting like the Star system evaluators are like MAI appraisers. Theme is ... nobody here took a solid upper level Statistics course. Nor knows anything about numbers. The Super Bowl ratings doesn't surprise me. The Alabama has 24 Four Star or better ... that is a given. (i.e. If you are committed to Alabama, the rating services GIVE you the 4)

For the non Texas FBS schools ... the HS in the northeast - excepting NJ or parts of PA - that get ratings, the real story is the anomalies. Why. Byron Jones of UConn was always a phenom ... in measurable. 2 Star. Recruiting arguments are going to be stoked. It still has to be a HC and system that is far better at evaluation. Paul Pasqualoni and Bob Diaco ... they had their own persona in recruiting. Edsall was always better. That guarantees us nothing. We have seen Temple & Rutgers far surpass us in the last decade. Maybe Buffalo's staff starting a year earlier. If you simply look at the earlier list of percent 3 & 4 & 5 star athletes, it is easy to see what is going on. Part of football is development though; meaning that some positions aren't as easily pegged at 18 yo.

 

[uconndogs]

I am absolutely convinced that if Nick Saran offered me and my sub 10 second 40 a scholarship the rating services would throw me 3 or 4 stars.

 

[billybud]

Sooo....what does that tell you about the confidence that the rating services have in the Saban machine's evaluatuators?

If Bama has looked at them and wants them...they are good.

 

[billybud]

NFL evaluators could care less about stars...

2018 Draft

Alabama breaks SEC record....12 drafted

• 7: LSU, NC State, Ohio State
• 6: Florida State, Georgia, Miami, Penn State
• 5: Florida, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wisconsin
• 4: Auburn, Louisville, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Stanford, Texas, UCF, USC
• 3: Arizona State, Boston College, Clemson, Iowa, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Southern Miss, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
• 2: Arkansas, Boise State, Cal, Indiana, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Oregon, Rutgers, San Diego State, Temple, Texas Tech, Tulane, UL Lafayette, USF, Virginia, Washington State, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan

 

[Pudge]

I don’t think picking super stud top 1% 17/18 YO talent is that hard. Sure great evaluators

Like Aaron Hernandez

The huge talent is looking at 17/18 YO talent & knowing that kid can rise to LIKE 4 star by age 21. That’s our pool.

 

[uconndogs]

Sooo....what does that tell you about the confidence that the rating services have in the Saban machine's evaluatuators?

If Bama has looked at them and wants them...they are good.

It tells me that the rating services are highly influenced by the schools evaluation and have limited evaluation skills of their own. I also agree with Pudge. Evaluating elite talent is a lot easier than the kids who need more development as most 17 year olds do.

 

[billybud]

Pudge said...I don’t think picking super stud top 1% 17/18 YO talent is that hard. Sure great evaluators

Sure...But it takes a great evaluator and a little luck to find 2 star skill guys who turn out to be super talents (easier with O linemen). Three stars are more likely.

And sure, there are anomalies...one of my favorites was a no offer (well..only offer Stony Brook) walk on at FSU who went on to be 3d pick in the first round.

But you basketball guys know why the board gets excited about the Goodnights, Gaffneys, Akoks....and Achiuwas

Yes...a 3 star like Whaley can be developed....same with a Quinton Williams, Tyler Polley, and Christian Vital.

Houston has been developing three stars and doing a pretty decent job of it.