How Great is Kiah Stokes

[ndmb]

This was actually inspired by another thread, but I got into looking at Stokes' rebounding efficiency and shotblocking efficiency relative to UConn greats in the past, and as you might expect, the results are pretty compelling. I can't find season box scores from before 1999, so I don't have pace information for older players (with some exceptions where I was able to find the information elsewhere in the media guide).

Top ten most prolific rebounders in UConn history, in order of rebounding percentage for their senior season (sorry, doing their entire career was too much of a pain in the butt):
Kiah Stokes: 19.92%
Tina Charles: 18.32%
Swin Cash: 16.41%
Rebecca Lobo: 15.58%
Kara Wolters: 15.35%
Stefanie Dolson: 15.02%
Jamelle Elliot: 14.94%
Maya Moore: 13.87%
Peggy Walsh: Insufficient Data
Kerry Bascom: Insufficient Data

Top ten most prolific shot blockers in UConn since 1999, in order of block percentage for their senior season:
Kiah Stokes: 19.95%
Breanna Stewart: 8.84%
Tina Charles: 8.38%
Stefanie Dolson: 6.6%
Asjha Jones: 6.09%
Kelly Schumacher: 5.97%
Swin Cash: 4.86%
Maya Moore: 3.7%
Diana Taurasi: 2.37%
Charde Houston: 2.15%

All put together, she is by far the best shot-blocker we've had since 1999, and arguably our best rebounder ever. If anyone has older season box scores, let me know; I'd love to see what Kara and Rebecca's block rates look like.

 

[ndmb]

For comparison, the all-time (since 74) NBA record for career block percentage is Shawn Bradley, at 7.83%.

 

[JellyBean]

That is pretty impressive.

 

[bschwartz]

Very much appreciate you taking the time to put this together though I admit it drives me bonkers because of her offense. She has a great chance to have an impact on Sunday because she matches up well defensively with the Terps' post. Fingers crossed Kiah falls to Minnesota.

 

[reno tony]

This was actually inspired by another thread, but I got into looking at Stokes' rebounding efficiency and shotblocking efficiency relative to UConn greats in the past, and as you might expect, the results are pretty compelling. I can't find season box scores from before 1999, so I don't have pace information for older players (with some exceptions where I was able to find the information elsewhere in the media guide).

Top ten most prolific rebounders in UConn history, in order of rebounding percentage for their senior season (sorry, doing their entire career was too much of a pain in the butt):
Kiah Stokes: 19.92%
Tina Charles: 18.32%
Swin Cash: 16.41%
Rebecca Lobo: 15.58%
Kara Wolters: 15.35%
Stefanie Dolson: 15.02%
Jamelle Elliot: 14.94%
Maya Moore: 13.87%
Peggy Walsh: Insufficient Data
Kerry Bascom: Insufficient Data

Top ten most prolific shot blockers in UConn since 1999, in order of block percentage for their senior season:
Kiah Stokes: 19.95%
Breanna Stewart: 8.84%
Tina Charles: 8.38%
Stefanie Dolson: 6.6%
Asjha Jones: 6.09%
Kelly Schumacher: 5.97%
Swin Cash: 4.86%
Maya Moore: 3.7%
Diana Taurasi: 2.37%
Charde Houston: 2.15%

All put together, she is by far the best shot-blocker we've had since 1999, and arguably our best rebounder ever. If anyone has older season box scores, let me know; I'd love to see what Kara and Rebecca's block rates ok like.

Love the stats. Could you explain how you get the block percentage?

 

[ndmb]

Love the stats. Could you explain how you get the block percentage?

Block percentage is an approximation of the percentage of the opponents 2 point shot attempts that a player blocks while they're on the floor. In this case, I'm making the assertion that for every five 2 point shots that an opponent makes while on the floor, Kiah blocks one. The formula is, for a season: [100 * player blocks * team minutes played/5]/(opponent 2 point shot attempts * player minutes). How I look at it is that it takes the percentage of another teams shots that a player blocks, and then compensates for minutes played to approximate how many opposing shots the player actually had the opportunity to block.

It has a couple of weaknesses: it assumes that the pace of play and the percentage of opponents shots that are beyond the arc isn't correlated with whether the player is on the floor or not (but it's hard to imagine that this would bias the results in a big way). Often blocks, even over the course of a season aren't a large number, so there's greater room for statistical anomaly there. For example, Diana Taurasi had 27 blocks in her senior season; the gap between her and someone who had 32 blocks (by percentage, a big difference) probably isn't statistically significant. For rebounding, the sample size is much larger, so that's not really an issue.

Another weakness is that block percentage intentionally ignores 3 point shots, operating under the false assumption that 3 point shots are not blocked. The argument is that compensating for whether opponents' shot come from inside or outside the arc adds so much benefit to the accuracy of the model that it's worth giving extra benefit to players who can block threes (which both Kia and Breanna have done this year). A good analogy here is that a player who hoists up a 3/4 court shot because the game clock is expiring doesn't get docked for missing a three point shot, because A) such shots are rare and B) they're not really a good indicator of shooting ability, just who has the ball in those situations. As an aside, blocking a three is often much more difficult and a bigger momentum shift than blocking a 2, so I don't really mind players getting a tiny bit of extra credit for them.

All in all, I think that, despite it's weaknesses, block percentage is a far better marker of blocking efficiency than blocks per minute because it compensates for the pace of the game (which can vary dramatically from team to team) and for how many threes the opponent jacks up.

 

[cabbie191]

I appreciate the effort you put into it as well, and though as you point out, there are some assumptions you have to make, the fact is that for the most part these assumptions would be equally true for all the Huskies listed. So it seems to be an apples to apples comparison.

I really like Kiah - and for far more than the defensive presence she brings onto the court. I think she has comported herself as a person as well as any other UConn player we've had the privilege to watch these years - never complaining or pouting over what must have been disappointing moments during her career.

Last, like others I have always wished she had been a stronger offensive player and have cringed at how many bunnies she seemed to miss. But even here, it seems to me that in the last half of this season, she has been more accurate and has a fairly high shooting percentage now. Any stats experts want to check that?

 

[ndmb]

Very much appreciate you taking the time to put this together though I admit it drives me bonkers because of her offense. She has a great chance to have an impact on Sunday because she matches up well defensively with the Terps' post. Fingers crossed Kiah falls to Minnesota.

It's weird, because she's built like a tank, is athletic, and has a decent shooting touch. Still, there are worse things than having a 6th woman post player who doesn't produce much in terms of scoring, but consistently is an outstanding defender and rebounder.

 

[ndmb]

I've been thinking more about her as a draft prospect, and her rebounding and block numbers hold up against some other the other posts in the draft and the last college years of some of the current greats in the WNBA.

Block Percentage:
Stokes: 19.95%
Griner: 13.42%
Fowles: 6.14%
Zahui B. (who may come into the draft this year): 10.41%
Elizabeth Williams: 10.2%
Harrison: 5.04%
Gray: 3.2%

Rebound Percentage:
Stokes: 19.92%
Fowles: 18.05%
Griner: 15.93%
Zahui B.: 18.58%
Williams: 14.3%
Harrison: 20.07%
Gray: 13.6%

 

[UcMiami]

I actually think Stokes make surprise people at the next level in terms of her scoring. She was a good scorer in HS and supposedly in rec leagues in summer during college. There was just something that never clicked between Stokes and the coaching staff with regard to scoring at Uconn and she found her niche as a defender and rebounder. She felt confident in those abilities within the Uconn system, just never confident as a scorer.
Depending on where she plays professionally I think it might be a better fit for her offense. Not unlike the struggles that Charde had at Uconn that she was able to move past as a pro.

 

[rugbymate]

Totally agree with your analysis of Kiah. She is a great rebounded, shot blocker and has a Hall of Fame attitude. But here's one for you....Kiah averaged .374 rebounds per minute played this year while Gabby averaged .373, a virtual dead heat. One can argue about quality minutes played etc but Gabby's rebounding performance as a freshman is astounding and whether she starts or not next year she will clearly see plenty of court time.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Kiah is a pretty deadly defensive weapon. I wonder if we see a lot of the tall line up if Maryland guards get inside.

 

[hussybulldog]

As much as a homer and liking her personality, I am afraid to say that she might be lack of the wanting and driving to excel at the next level, just plain too one(or two) dimensional on the court. With her great personality, she can excel in other fields. 4 years of bench playing should suffice. If I were her, I will try to find something I am more passionate about.

 

[Buzzyboy]

As much as a homer and liking her personality, I am afraid to say that she might be lack of the wanting and driving to excel at the next level, just plain too one(or two) dimensional on the court. With her great personality, she can excel in other fields. 4 years of bench playing should suffice. If I were her, I will try to find something I am more passionate about.

It sounds like you're very diminishing her abilities to affect a game. She's been the catalyst in changing the complexion of numerous games with just the two facets of the game, rebounding and shot blocking that has been mentioned. There is definitely more to her than that but even if there wasn't, her value to a team can't be minimized. I believe that though her demeanor doesn't necessarily show it, she's got a fire in her and a pride that burns deeply. I'm inclined to think she'll be a very viable WNBA player, if she decides to continue her basketball career. I think she does and will be a very successful pro.

 

[Suebird10fan]

As much as a homer and liking her personality, I am afraid to say that she might be lack of the wanting and driving to excel at the next level, just plain too one(or two) dimensional on the court. With her great personality, she can excel in other fields. 4 years of bench playing should suffice. If I were her, I will try to find something I am more passionate about.

Where is the DISlike button when you need it?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Check the LaChina Robinson and Mechelle Voepel talk about Moriah Jefferson. Voepel points to "the Two Erasers" in Stewie and Stokes as that security net that allows UConn to do so much on defense. Love it. Not sure I get the question about whether UConn's perimeter defense is good enough to handle Maryland since they are still one of the best arc defenders in the country at 26.8%, but when you have the Two Erasers back there for at least part of the game, life is good.