How close are the top 4 seeds to being locked?

[EricSD]

I know things can happen, but for the most part, are the rankings locked? Rest of season games vs. ranked opponents:

UConn faces no one ranked the rest of the season
UCLA faces Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington (plus USC)
SC faces Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Kentucky
Texas faces LSU, Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee, and Alabama

Then of course they will have their conference tourneys where they all will obviously face ranked teams along the way. If UCLA or SC/Texas wins out and wins their conference, could either of them jump to the 1 line for seeding? I know they will not be #1 in the rankings unless we lose, but could they leapfrog us due to their insane remaining schedule but winning out? How many losses would it take for any of them to fall out of the 1 line making way for say Louisville (who faces a rejuvenated Duke team next)?

 

[ucmiami2]

I don't think any teams are a lock at the moment.
Uconn - any loss through the conference tournament could hurt a lot as it would be a 'bad loss.'

UCLA - they have looked impressive with only a good loss. And I doubt a single loss would hurt them even if it were a 'bad loss' - lose two and they might move to a second seed depending on what else happens with other contenders.

SC & TX - I'll combine them as they are in the same boat really, one of them (or both) will lose a game in the SEC tournament so if either or both also lose a game in the regular season, they will have left the door wide open for one of the contenders. And they have the hardest finishing stretches and conference tournament.

The contenders are really close:
Ohio State & Michigan (and probably Michigan State or Iowa) - if they were to win out including the tournament, they might replace UCLA as a 1 seed and could also replace one of the SEC teams if they stumble.

LSU & Vandy - again combining conference. If either of these teams win out and win the tournament they are a #1 seed. If they both win their remaining regular season games and meet in the finals of the conference they could both displace SC and TX even with their dreadful OOC schedules.

Louisville - if they win out and they have their biggest test against a surging Duke on Thurs, they could displace any of the top 4 who stumble - they have the easiest closing schedule and the easiest conference tournament outside of Uconn.

It would not surprise me if the SEC beats themselves up during this closing stretch and through the tournament, and 3 of the 4 teams listed have shown themselves capable of losing games they should win, two losses by any or all of them would open the door for ___________ to make their case - from two #1 seeds, they could end up with four #2 seeds! That would be a shock!

 

[Geew1992]

I think Uconn and UCLA are locks. There rest has to wait until the SEC dust settles

 

[slepers]

So a bad loss hurts and undefeated team but a bad loss doesn’t impact ucla?

 

[packwrap]

UConn and UCLA pretty close to locks.

SEC still has SC, TX, LSU, Miss, OU & Vandy in contention. Most likely it's SC and Texas, but anyone can lose 2 or 3 in a row in the SEC.

If SEC beats each other up, door could open for Big12 champ, or ACC champ.

There are still many BIG conference games left, Lville v Duke Thursday is one to start with.

 

[Stagnant]

Even UConn is not quite a lock. Remember a couple of years ago when we lost to Marquette and Saint John’s right at the end of the season? If something like that were to happen… we would get bumped to the 2 line imo.

 

[ucmiami2]

So a bad loss hurts and undefeated team but a bad loss doesn’t impact ucla?

UCLA has 11 quad one wins and if all they have is a bad loss they would end with 15 +/- quad ones. No one is matching that. And their 'bad loss' would likely be better than Uconn's by quite a distance. So yeah, they can weather a bad loss easier. To date UCLA has only lost to TX, and presumably they would win against TX in the conference tournament or at least the against the team that beat TX. Uconn has played and beat 5 ranked teams, UCLA if they only have a bad loss, will end having a 15-1 record against ranked teams.

Uconn at 34-0 is unassailable as a 1 seed. Uconn at 33-1 losing to Villanova in Feb or the beginning of March is not, depending on what other teams accomplish in that time frame. Every other team in consideration will have had a stronger SOS than what Massey expects to be the 23rd ranked Uconn SOS.

 

[ucmiami2]

UConn and UCLA pretty close to locks.

SEC still has SC, TX, LSU, Miss, OU & Vandy in contention. Most likely it's SC and Texas, but anyone can lose 2 or 3 in a row in the SEC.

If SEC beats each other up, door could open for Big12 champ, or ACC champ.

There are still many BIG conference games left, Lville v Duke Thursday is one to start with.

I don't see the Big 12 champ in contention for a #1 seed unless there is just a storm of teams blowing games at the end of the season - BigTen I think would get two in before that happens, and Louisville would need to lose twice, too. And I don't really see both SC and TX being ousted - one will win enough to get a #1 even if the other messes up. And if they both mess up then LSU or Vandy will take the spot. Massey projects both Baylor (28) and TCU (40) as having worse final SOS than Uconn and far worse than the SEC and BigTen contenders.

 

[Bone Dog]

After the Tennessee game, I think UConn is a lock as a #1 seed, and maybe the overall #1 seed. That wasn't just a win. It was a statement win. One might argue that SoS could shift UCLA into the overall #1. They are unlikely to stumble over the rest of the season.

SC and Texas have much more challenging schedules ahead, which could cut in their favor, or against them if they take another loss.

Could LSU supplant one of them? They have a couple chances coming up. But it will take more than close losses. They'll have to win decisively against at least one of them... and not falter against Tennessee.

 

[Cuango]

I would be very surprised if Texas and SC do not lose any more games between now and the tournament. UCLA has a much better chance imo. LSU, who is looking very scary after their absolute demolition of Alabama will also likely lose to at least one of Texas or SC. I think there’s a lot of story left in this season.

UCLA has to go to Mich. That is clearly their biggest chance for a loss. Texas, SC and LSU have a veritable minefield to get through while we, it must be said, are prohibitive favorites the rest of the way. Still, strange things happen in this game and I am simply praying for good health from here on out!

 

[Stagnant]

UCLA has 11 quad one wins and if all they have is a bad loss they would end with 15 +/- quad ones. No one is matching that. And their 'bad loss' would likely be better than Uconn's by quite a distance. So yeah, they can weather a bad loss easier. To date UCLA has only lost to TX, and presumably they would win against TX in the conference tournament or at least the against the team that beat TX. Uconn has played and beat 5 ranked teams, TX if they only have a bad loss, will end having a 15-1 record against ranked teams.

Uconn at 34-0 is unassailable as a 1 seed. Uconn at 33-1 losing to Villanova in Feb or the beginning of March is not, depending on what other teams accomplish in that time frame. Every other team in consideration will have had a stronger SOS than what Massey expects to be the 23rd ranked Uconn SOS.

If UCLA wins out, I wouldn’t object to them being the number 1 overall seed.

 

[Suebird10fan]

No one is a lock but the chances of UConn, UCLA and two of Tx, SC and LSU are quite high. Well over 80% I’d say. Easy to come up with scenarios where this doesn’t happen. They’re just not likely. Eg, I could def see UCLA losing again, but I don’t see them losing twice.

 

[BBallF]

If UCLA wins out, I wouldn’t object to them being the number 1 overall seed.

I would. How do you take the #1 team all year long, and the only undefeated team, with the best player in the country, and have the Committee say they secretly know better. We beat the top 3 ranked teams in the Big 10 besides UCLA, and at least 2 other common opponents. If SOS is that predominant a factor, just rank teams on that basis and let the Selection Committee do that also. See how long that would last. SOS is about the most over stressed, misunderstood, and unreliable factor there is. If it were that critical, we should not have won it all last year or from 2013-2016.

 

[Txhoopsalot]

LSU plays at Texas Thursday. LSU has been on a tear. If Texas loses, does LSU or someone else move to the one seed for now?

 

[DefenseBB]

LSU plays at Texas Thursday. LSU has been on a tear. If Texas loses, does LSU or someone else move to the one seed for now?

There have been quite a few discussions n this in multiple media’s including a podcast I heard with Charlie Creme. So there are some points that need to be made AND understood by this group to prevent redundant and fruitless discussions. #1. NET and Quad 1 wins are just ONE VARIABLE cosidered and is not the preeminent tool used, Charlie thinks UConn has the overall #1 seed locked up provided they win out. Point being stop perseverating about the NET it. #2. LSU played such a horrible OOC schedule that Charlie said there was no way he could see them getting a #1 seed.
Louisville has a very slim chance to get the last #1 after UConn, UCLA and one of SC/Texas if one wins both the SEC regular season and the conference tournament which opens the door for Louisville

 

[bballnut90]

UCONN could probably lost 1-2 games and still get in. There's no way that's happening though, they're a lock.

UCLA is probably 90% there. Barring a strange loss to an unranked team finishing the regular season they're going to be a #1 seed.

South Carolina, Texas and LSU duking it out for the last 2 spots. They all have insane schedules to finish the year and two of these teams will likely see at least 2 losses each.


Teams on the outside looking in:
Vanderbilt - the Ole Miss loss hurts them. They have a murderer's row finish to the regular season playing Kentucky/Oklahoma/Texas in the next 9 days and finish with Kentucky/Alabama/Tennessee. If they somehow come out unscathed, they're in the #1 conversation. Odds of that happening seem incredibly low though.

Michigan - they could enter the conversation if they win out aside from the UCLA game. They got their first quality win of the season by beating Michigan State but have a tough stretch to end the year with Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State and Maryland.

Louisville - no real bad losses but few quality wins. Even if they win out in the ACC I think it's a long shot they jump 2 of Texas/South Carolina/LSU with no standout wins on their schedule.

Ohio State - if they win out the regular season they could be in the mix. Only have losses to Iowa, UCLA and UCONN. I don't really see it happening but I suppose it's possible.

 

[WBBZen]

UConn and UCLA will be the first and second #1 seeds. The SEC needs to sort itself out to fill out other two.

South Carolina has been so inconsistent this season. Last night Texas A&M was within 7 in the fourth quarter. I think if LSU beats Texas again this week, they will move into 4th. I would not be surprised at all to see LSU take one of the #1 seeds

 

[Vowelguy]

LSU is still in contention. That's about it.

Michigan & Vandy have an outside shot but would probably need to win out and win their conference tournaments
And while Louisville has only one significant obstacle (Duke), I'm not sure even that would be enough.

Of course if the top teams collapse then who knows, but that's so unlikely.