OT: How bad has ACC been this year?

[Hey Adrien!]

It didn't occur to me how bad the ACC is this year until recently when looking at the Bubble Watch.

Of course Duke is excellent, but if the season ended today, it looks like Wake Forest (good for Steve Forbes!) and Notre Dame are the only surefire teams getting in.

On a purely statistical level, here's how the ACC ranks according to KenPom

Just barely better than the MWC (which is very good this year) and its rating is closer to the AAC (2.12) than the Big East (3.21).

We knew going into the season that BC (kudos to Earl Grant, they've been better than expected) and Pitt were going to suck, but Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville and Clemson have really disappointed...I would even argue Florida State has not met expectations too.

 

[Get a Job]

Everyone is being really harsh on the ACC. Come on people, they're the best mid-major conference out there!

 

[awfuldan]

I just re-visited the preseason AP Top 25. UNC, Florida State, and Virginia were all in there. Of those 3 teams, maybe UNC will make it to the tournament? Florida State and Virginia aren't even really close to the bubble. Crazy.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Whoever put Virginia in the preseason AP is an idiot.

The team lost Murphy, Huff, Hauser, Woldentensae, Morsell and McKoy.

 

[gtcam]

Whoever put Virginia in the preseason AP is an idiot.

The team lost Murphy, Huff, Hauser, Woldentensae, Morsell and McKoy.

Yeah I agree but you know preseason polls are based almost purely on reputation and UVA has a strong recent history.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

Whoever put Virginia in the preseason AP is an idiot.

The team lost Murphy, Huff, Hauser, Woldentensae, Morsell and McKoy.

Most of the writeups on us were something along the lines of "UVA lost 99.9% of it's offense and defense, but we can't imagine a tony bennett led squad not being ranked"....umm ok. Anyone who actually pays attention knew this was going to be a rough season for UVA, which actually got a bit hidden by how awful the ACC as a whole has been.

 

[awfuldan]

Whoever put Virginia in the preseason AP is an idiot.

The team lost Murphy, Huff, Hauser, Woldentensae, Morsell and McKoy.

Unfortunately our guy Dave Borges had 'em at 19...

edit: he had Syracuse ranked top 25 preseason too lol

 

[Stinger92860]

Of course Duke is excellent, but if the season ended today, it looks like Wake Forest (good for Steve Forbes!) and Notre Dame are the only surefire teams getting in.

When compared to the rest of the ACC, yes Duke is really good. They will still get 4 or more teams in.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Mid major, the ACC's almost made BCU look a bit less pitifully bad.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Most of the writeups on us were something along the lines of "UVA lost 99.9% of it's offense and defense, but we can't imagine a tony bennett led squad not being ranked"....umm ok. Anyone who actually pays attention knew this was going to be a rough season for UVA, which actually got a bit hidden by how awful the ACC as a whole has been.

Sad - same thinking as "I think Duke will win the ACC regular season because I can't imagine a Coach K team that wouldn't win it".

Oh, wait, they haven't won it in over a decade.

 

[Waquoit]

Could those who follow the ACC tell us if this is just a blip or a trend? And the only strong team is losing their coach. How good is that?

 

[huskypantz]

Could those who follow the ACC tell us if this is just a blip or a trend? And the only strong team is losing their coach. How good is that?

I don't follow the ACC but it would be reasonable to suggest that there are cycles in CBB and they happen to be on a downward cycle. UConn and the BE has been subject to them as well. They'll be back. Since you posted this, probably next year.

 

[UofCT]

Whoever put Virginia in the preseason AP is an idiot.

The team lost Murphy, Huff, Hauser, Woldentensae, Morsell and McKoy.

We were #21 preseason in 2006-07 after losing Gay, Armstrong, Boone, Williams, Anderson, Brown, and Nelson.

 

[willie99]

With Houston, Cincy and UCF leaving, nobody can argue we're not blessed to be outta there

 

[auror]

Could those who follow the ACC tell us if this is just a blip or a trend? And the only strong team is losing their coach. How good is that?

Duke is still good, but likely will be down soon because K is leaving.
UNC is down because Roy left.
Syracuse is down because Jim hasn't left yet
UVA is down just based on a recruiting cycle. They'll be back soon.
FSU is down on a recruiting cycle due to early entrants. They'll be back soon.
Louisville is down because Chris Mack crashed and burned.

The rest of the programs have been beaten down by the above over time and are about the same as usual, which is to say not that great.

 

[gsmooth]

Duke is still good, but likely will be down soon because K is leaving.
UNC is down because Roy left.
Syracuse is down because Jim hasn't left yet
UVA is down just based on a recruiting cycle. They'll be back soon.
FSU is down on a recruiting cycle due to early entrants. They'll be back soon.
Louisville is down because Chris Mack crashed and burned.

The rest of the programs have been beaten down by the above over time and are about the same as usual, which is to say not that great.

I don't have much hatred towards Syracuse like most on the Boneyard, but that part made me laugh out loud, LMFAO

 

[ToolzieFan]

The ACC Ran Men’s Basketball. Now It’s Getting Run Out Of The Tournament.

The once-powerful conference would like to forget about this year.

53eig.ht

 

[Kolumbo]

The ACC Ran Men’s Basketball. Now It’s Getting Run Out Of The Tournament.

The once-powerful conference would like to forget about this year.

53eig.ht

The ACC really messed up its identity. It expanded north geographically but not effectively. It expanded south academically (L-ville). It is the complete opposite of what the B1G is. It's got publics, privates, catholics, commuters. duke is duke but it will drop off somewhat when K leaves. If UCONN, Maryland, and maybe even a Rutgers or Villanova filled in the gaps, it would be in a better basketball position. I still maintain if it had expanded with 6-8 Big East programs at one time it would have been a far better result. Those northeastern schools just don't belong in the current model. That's a shame

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The ACC really messed up its identity. It expanded north geographically but not effectively. It expanded south academically (L-ville). It is the complete opposite of what the B1G is. It's got publics, privates, catholics, commuters. duke is duke but it will drop off somewhat when K leaves. If UCONN, Maryland, and maybe even a Rutgers or Villanova filled in the gaps, it would be in a better basketball position. I still maintain if it had expanded with 6-8 Big East programs at one time it would have been a far better result. Those northeastern schools just don't belong in the current model. That's a shame

View attachment 73751

Football drove the bus and it went off the road a good bit in the aggregate.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

We were #21 preseason in 2006-07 after losing Gay, Armstrong, Boone, Williams, Anderson, Brown, and Nelson.

And entered the 06-07 season with the #4 ranked freshman class w/ Dyson, Thabeet, Wiggins, Stix, Kelly, Gavin Edwards and the Real Dove. The season was also the debut of AJ Price plus they had Jeff Adrien returning.

Virginia's '21 class was ranked 81st. Franklin/Gardner were good transfers, but you can't compare what UConn had coming in vs. UVA.

 

[LBird33]

It didn't occur to me how bad the ACC is this year until recently when looking at the Bubble Watch.

Of course Duke is excellent, but if the season ended today, it looks like Wake Forest (good for Steve Forbes!) and Notre Dame are the only surefire teams getting in.

On a purely statistical level, here's how the ACC ranks according to KenPom

View attachment 73704

Just barely better than the MWC (which is very good this year) and its rating is closer to the AAC (2.12) than the Big East (3.21).

We knew going into the season that BC (kudos to Earl Grant, they've been better than expected) and Pitt were going to suck, but Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville and Clemson have really disappointed...I would even argue Florida State has not met expectations too.

So bad that Notre Dame looks good

 

[Hey Adrien!]

So bad that Notre Dame looks good

Notre Dame, along with Michigan State, is a squad I usually "trend up" in March. Brey has no depth, but his top-seven is very good and his teams tend to play better later in the season.

 

[gsmooth]

Notre Dame, along with Michigan State, is a squad I usually "trend up" in March. Brey has no depth, but his top-seven is very good and his teams tend to play better later in the season.

Normally yes, and maybe we will find out if that is true after we reflect in April. However, the games I have seen of them they look like soft p---ies, especially in their home game against Boston College where they were getting pushed around and needed 2 OTs to secure the victory.

 

[ToolzieFan]

Notre Dame, along with Michigan State, is a squad I usually "trend up" in March. Brey has no depth, but his top-seven is very good and his teams tend to play better later in the season.

Can I ask why you usually trend them up? They’ve made the Sweet 16 three times since 1987: 2003, 2015, and 2016, although the last two years were Elite Eight runs.

Michigan St. makes more sense, since they have made the Sweet 16 a total of 14 times since 1998, along with eight trips to the Final Four in that time.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

And entered the 06-07 season with the #4 ranked freshman class w/ Dyson, Thabeet, Wiggins, Stix, Kelly, Gavin Edwards and the Real Dove. The season was also the debut of AJ Price plus they had Jeff Adrien returning.

Virginia's '21 class was ranked 81st. Franklin/Gardner were good transfers, but you can't compare what UConn had coming in vs. UVA.

Post/handle