Here is What we Know about UConn to the ACC

[businesslawyer]

1. Fifteen months ago, the ACC offices wanted to add UConn and Syracuse. BC put up a stink and they said fine -- Pitt and Syracuse, not a big enough difference to be worth the fight. But we know many wanted us in the last round, and Louisville was not on their list.

2. Our Governor and new President publicly made spectacles of themselves #beggingharder.

3. The BC (former) AD made a huge point of telling the media that he kept UConn ought for anticompetitive reasons and that ESPN -- which had just inked a large corporate welfare deal with the State of Connecticut -- played a role in the matter.

4. The Governor, who was giving interviews on the air when Pitt andSyracuse left, said nothing.

5. Two people I have known for a long time, placed highly in the AG's office, when I told them they looked weak by not saying anything about the actions of ESPN refused to have a discussion with me about it.

6. Neither Malloy nor Herbst have said anything since the story about the ACC vacancy broke, and Manual talked to the press but didn't tell anyone anything. At the same time, Louisville has started publicly campaigning.

7. Putting aside tweets from people who don't have known jobs in the industry quoting anonymous stories. we do have a credible reporter from a credible paper (meaning there are procedures for when you have enough to run with the story) saying that we will be in the ACC and the only question is how soon. And I haven't seen anything from a credible reporter that disputes this (and I'm not counting the meaningless statements like "we haven't acted yet" which everyone says until they have legally committed, but a real statement that someone has been told that there is still a real dispute or uncertainty about UConn being invited).

So, the most rational conclusions are not always what happens, but the most rational analysis from all this is that we were fairly certain before this story broke that we were next on the ACC's list for a full time member, and all we are waiting for at the moment is the ACC to confirm that they are stuck on an odd number (that FSU isn't leaving, by itself, for the Big XII for example) and need to expand.

 

[Jarhead_1775]

Very rational and well thought out. This really is the most logical conclusion given this and the tv, geographical, and academic statistics. I'm still just sh1tting myself until I see something concrete break. What I wouldn't give to get back to b1tching about Deleone.

 

[upstater]

Great post. Thanks for the insight.

 

[businesslawyer]

Very rational and well thought out. This really is the most logical conclusion given this and the tv, geographical, and academic statistics. I'm still just sh1tting myself until I see something concrete break. What I wouldn't give to get back to b1tching about Deleone.

Did I say I wasn't myself? I really have important work to get done.

 

[UConn9604]

So, the most rational conclusions are not always what happens, but the most rational analysis from all this is that we were fairly certain before this story broke that we were next on the ACC's list for a full time member, and all we are waiting for at the moment is the ACC to confirm that they are stuck on an odd number (that FSU isn't leaving, by itself, for the Big XII for example) and need to expand.

I agree with all of your facts and conclusions (and particularly liked no. 5), and I'm still both confident and hopeful, but as Curt Schilling might have said, Confident and Hopeful could be dancers in a night club.

I'm still not ready to rush out and order barbecue for lunch.

 

[freescooter]

Well thought out piece, biz. I was in the middle of trying to write something similar, but less well stated when I saw this. I also agree with your conclusion.

 

[Sean]

I agree with all of your facts and conclusions (and particularly liked no. 5), and I'm still both confident and hopeful, but as Curt Schilling might have said, Confident and Hopeful could be dancers in a night club.

I'm still not ready to rush out and order barbecue for lunch.

Thought that was Mystique and Aura...

 

[ZooCougar]

Great post. Good points all around.

But how about the fact that FSU and Company don't see to enthused. The climate can change. Opinions can change.

Fifteen months ago, the ACC was on top of the world, now they were just raided and they seem to be questioning their own solidarity. Fear can be a powerful motivator and can produce some weird results. If certain schools push for Louisville then others may be held hostage by that fear.

I think that needs to be taken into account when setting my own expectations.

 

[CTM626]

Very well said. I just have two questions/comments that I have been hoping someone can clear up for me:

1) After thinking about this a lot last night, wouldn't this be the most opportune time for the ACC (or schools like FSU, Clemson, Va Tech, etc.) to tell ND "Get in or get out because you're screwing everything up"? Is the risk there that the ACC is worried they will actually leave for the BiG? Wouldn't this, along with the addition of UConn, appease the football schools in the ACC? It is not like they can or will go back to the Big East.

2) With that being said, why are schools like FSU flirting with leaving? I completely understand that the payout in the Big 12 currently is better than the ACC but it is by no means significant. They have already been guaranteed access to the new playoff format and will play second fiddle to Texas/Oklahoma no matter how hard they try not to. I may be preaching to the choir here and I apologize for that but does anyone think this will actually happen. I understand Maryland because they said they never "felt at home" but these other schools make little to no sense to me.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

2) With that being said, why are schools like FSU flirting with leaving? I completely understand that the payout in the Big 12 currently is better than the ACC but it is by no means significant. They have already been guaranteed access to the new playoff format and will play second fiddle to Texas/Oklahoma no matter how hard they try not to. I may be preaching to the choir here and I apologize for that but does anyone think this will actually happen. I understand Maryland because they said they never "felt at home" but these other schools make little to no sense to me.[/quote]

I don't get why FSU would want to leave either. All they have to do is look at WVU and realize what their future could be. If WVU was still in the BE, I wouldn't be suprised if they got the BCS bid this year. Instead they have 5 losses and will play in the Pinstripe bowl.

FSU will have easier access to top bowls in the ACC.

 

[businesslawyer]

Great post. Good points all around.

But how about the fact that FSU and Company don't see to enthused. The climate can change. Opinions can change.

Fifteen months ago, the ACC was on top of the world, now they were just raided and they seem to be questioning their own solidarity. Fear can be a powerful motivator and can produce some weird results. If certain schools push for Louisville then others may be held hostage by that fear.

I think that needs to be taken into account when setting my own expectations.

As to FSU, remember that they are a state, and therefor political, institution. What they say is often said for the benefit of their constituents, and not for its truth. FSU would like to be in a stronger football conference. They say things to make their constituents feel better. But they have no options to make them a stronger football conference, and the delta between us and LV doesn't move the needle in that regard.

As to "things change," yes, they always do. No guaranty that we won't be blindsided. But the signs point to us not being worried about it.I
that

 

[freescooter]

Florida State has 2 issues...first and foremost they don't quite understand that it isn't 1997 anymore and they don't command the following they did. Nor do they dominate the ACC as they once did. they joined the ACC in 1992. They didn't lose a conference game until 1995. In their first 10 years in the league, they were 78-2. Haven't won an ACC title in 7 years. Yet as Seinfeld says, "you want to be my latex salesman?" despite their whining, I doubt they are going anywhere, and if they do decide to go it will be a decision based on what's good for FSU, not whether Maryland or UConn or Louisville is in the ACC.

Look, the Big 12 could decide or be pressured into expanding to some number and if that happens maybe Florida State and Clemson get calls. Maybe one gets a call. Maybe Louisville and Georgia Tech do. But for them to leave, well someone has to take them. The SEC already has Florida. The Big 12 is reportedly happy at 10 which by the way is the right size but that's a whole other issue, they aren't going to the PAC or the BiG and can't do the Indy thing.

 

[LRock34]

Maryland's Bball coach said he has known about the move for 7 days. If Maryland made up their mind more than a week ago, it would be pretty safe to say the Rutgers also made their decision more than a week ago. If RU knew more than a week ago I'm betting that UConn was also aware of what was happening. After all that we've been through I truly believe that neither RU or UConn would stab the other in the back. I also do not believe that Maryland just informed the ACC yesterday afternoon or that RU did the same.

If the conferences knew more than a week ago that would make sense as to why it's being reporting that Boise, SDSU and BYU struck up conversations with the MWC a week ago. It would also explain why Aresco said the TV negotiations were going to be long process when in reality they should have been quickly decided.

Granted these are all just my opinions but the fact that we are so quiet and Ville so vocal is telling. When SU and Pitt left we were the ones publicly campaigning, now all of a sudden we're just "monitoring the landscape"? The conference is officially dead and so is our athletic department if we don't get out but we're just "monitoring".

We're jumping from a life raft to a sinking ship...but I'll take it.

 

[ZooCougar]

We are eerily quiet. Other than Warde, nothing. Blackout.

 

[IthacaMatt]

To me, that indicates that you are in.

 

[noeynox]

LRock, even if we got left out while RU hit lottery I wouldn't consider it a stab in the back.

Big 10 calls and you don't even think about UConn before you say yes. Same for us. You see the Louisville Coxkblockers, they tried to derail WVU, and now they're trying to do the same to us.

 

[ctchamps]

I like your logical approach BL. If we've learned anything from this board it's that #begharders don't gain much respect. In other words, silence is golden.

I think Swofford is busy talking to ESPN about the tty contract. I'm sure the ACC thought they were stable. They have to be shaken and their tv partner might be as well. There must be some concern about the Big10 future course of action and how this could impact ESPN in the future.

 

[CL82]

Agree generally BL with two comments. Re: your 2nd item, I think Herbst took just right the tone, indicating interest and openess to being approached. Malloy stupidly took it over the top creating the whole #begharder perception. I think we are the # 1 option. As such though, every day of delay is an opportunity for someone to position themselves ahead of us, or for those opposed to us to campaign against us. I like our chances, but every day of delay increases my concern that something could go wrong.

For those of us who account for our time on an hourly basis, conference realignment is a bad, bad thing.

 

[junglehusky]

For the record, when I say I want UConn to #BegHarder I mean a reasonable effort behind closed doors, not public press conferences or quotes on/off the record to newspaper columnists. As noted in this thread, it looks likely that this was the approach over the past year, out of public view. I hope.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Very well said. I just have two questions/comments that I have been hoping someone can clear up for me:

1) After thinking about this a lot last night, wouldn't this be the most opportune time for the ACC (or schools like FSU, Clemson, Va Tech, etc.) to tell ND "Get in or get out because you're screwing everything up"? Is the risk there that the ACC is worried they will actually leave for the BiG? Wouldn't this, along with the addition of UConn, appease the football schools in the ACC? It is not like they can or will go back to the Big East.

2) With that being said, why are schools like FSU flirting with leaving? I completely understand that the payout in the Big 12 currently is better than the ACC but it is by no means significant. They have already been guaranteed access to the new playoff format and will play second fiddle to Texas/Oklahoma no matter how hard they try not to. I may be preaching to the choir here and I apologize for that but does anyone think this will actually happen. I understand Maryland because they said they never "felt at home" but these other schools make little to no sense to me.

thinking the same thing... the acc may actually have the most leverage with ND now than any point in the future. If ACC provides the ultimatum, where does ND go? Nobody at this point except maybe Big12 will give them that deal... And if they do, fine. Let the Big12 deal with the issues that come along with ND.
What's more troubling ist that Uconn isn't even in the ACC and yet the "just give ND the ultimatum" argument is still relevant. Some things just never die.