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Grad Transfer Stat Tracker

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mcn

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I am going to spend most of the off season comparing grad transfer candidates and obsessing over next year's roster, so I figured I'd share this tracker document in case anyone else is interested in something other than Dan Hurley.

Grad Transfers 2018


EDIT: It wasn't my intention to relitigate last offseason. It was not ideal. Hopefully this is useful for those who are interested. I'm going to update it as I see new transfers. Let me know what I'm missing.
 
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ctchamps

We are UConn!! 4>1 But 5>>>>1 is even better!
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I am going to spend most of the off season comparing grad transfer candidates and obsessing over next year's roster, so I figured I'd share this tracker document in case anyone else is interested in something other than Dan Hurley.

Grad Transfers 2018


There's obviously a lot of debate here and elsewhere on the value or lack of value of graduate transfers. Having strong recruiting classes and developing players through the program is probably the best way to build a team, but even in the best case scenarios, teams need graduate transfers to fill roster spots and holes.

The benefit of graduate transfers is that they have a track record that can provide reasonable expectations or projections.

Last year, we took David Onuorah and Antwoine Anderson in the graduate transfer market after losing four players to transfers and decommits. Neither player worked on this years team. Anderson might have been an appropriate player if he hadn't been asked to play 1000 minutes, but looking at his stats at Fordham, his performance shouldn't have been a surprise. Onuorah was not successful in the Ivy League and he wasn't successful at UCONN. The issue wasn't necessarily that they were graduate transfers, it was that they were not the right players at the right level and their stats at their previous schools should have made that obvious.

For example, Anderson had a PER of 12.4 at Fordham, a school that had a significant worse Strength of Schedule than UCONN. He averaged .070 Win Shares per 40 mins and shot 411/344/694. He performed about what you could expect at UCONN with regressions in all of those numbers except FTs. Onuorah performed at about the same level of decline taking in his Cornell stats.

On the other end, Egor Koulechov and Cam Johnson were two of the statistically strongest graduate transfers, and their stats followed their past performance and their moves to their new teams. It's not clear that UCONN was ever in play for them, but there are other less touted players that would have been much better fits especially for Onuorah's spot like Karem Kanter, Akoy Agau, Deontae Hawkins, or Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed.

This is a long rant but basically, if we're going to lose players to transfer/injury/draft/whatever, and we have to take graduate transfers, there's no excuse to take players who can't perform for UCONN because all of their statistics are readily available. Of all of the things that Coach Ollie did in the last two years, this to me is the most glaring because its not clear that anyone paid attention at all to the abundance of information when they were making decisions on grad transfers.

/rant
They swung and missed on most of the grad transfers.
 

gtcam

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I am going to spend most of the off season comparing grad transfer candidates and obsessing over next year's roster, so I figured I'd share this tracker document in case anyone else is interested in something other than Dan Hurley.

Grad Transfers 2018


There's obviously a lot of debate here and elsewhere on the value or lack of value of graduate transfers. Having strong recruiting classes and developing players through the program is probably the best way to build a team, but even in the best case scenarios, teams need graduate transfers to fill roster spots and holes.

The benefit of graduate transfers is that they have a track record that can provide reasonable expectations or projections.

Last year, we took David Onuorah and Antwoine Anderson in the graduate transfer market after losing four players to transfers and decommits. Neither player worked on this years team. Anderson might have been an appropriate player if he hadn't been asked to play 1000 minutes, but looking at his stats at Fordham, his performance shouldn't have been a surprise. Onuorah was not successful in the Ivy League and he wasn't successful at UCONN. The issue wasn't necessarily that they were graduate transfers, it was that they were not the right players at the right level and their stats at their previous schools should have made that obvious.

For example, Anderson had a PER of 12.4 at Fordham, a school that had a significant worse Strength of Schedule than UCONN. He averaged .070 Win Shares per 40 mins and shot 411/344/694. He performed about what you could expect at UCONN with regressions in all of those numbers except FTs. Onuorah performed at about the same level of decline taking in his Cornell stats.

On the other end, Egor Koulechov and Cam Johnson were two of the statistically strongest graduate transfers, and their stats followed their past performance and their moves to their new teams. It's not clear that UCONN was ever in play for them, but there are other less touted players that would have been much better fits especially for Onuorah's spot like Karem Kanter, Akoy Agau, Deontae Hawkins, or Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed.

This is a long rant but basically, if we're going to lose players to transfer/injury/draft/whatever, and we have to take graduate transfers, there's no excuse to take players who can't perform for UCONN because all of their statistics are readily available. Of all of the things that Coach Ollie did in the last two years, this to me is the most glaring because its not clear that anyone paid attention at all to the abundance of information when they were making decisions on grad transfers.

/rant

Kanter was always heading to the X but the grad xfer situation this past season, except for a few AA moments, was horrible
 

mcn

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I totally get that we weren't in the best spot with most of these guys but I'll be updating that Google doc for my own interest this offseason so I figured I'd share it.
 
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Ryan Luther from Pitt wouldn't be a bad pickup for a year. Averaged 12.7 points 10 rebounds. I'd take that right now
 
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I totally get that we weren't in the best spot with most of these guys but I'll be updating that Google doc for my own interest this offseason so I figured I'd share it.
Please share. Great stuff.
 

the Q

Yowie Wowie. We’re gonna have so much fun here
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I'd take another Lasan Kromah or Shonn Miller...

Those guys were great. I’m hoping Hurley comes and lures Harris with him.

And brings akoinjo back. I’m more than happy to sit out the grad transfer market this year.
 
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If UC is gonna take it in the chops due to lack of available talent, y not go with a 'promising' frosh rather than the lack of fufillment from grad transfers as in past few years. Would seem to offer more hope to the faithful.
 

Dream Jobbed 2.0

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If AA could have played his intended role of 10-15 min per and handle the ball and play tough d he would have excelled. He was just not a guy who could play 30 min a game in this league and be one of your highest volume shooters.

DO was DO.
 

the Q

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Everyone rips do but he was one of our better defenders. That’s why he saw the floor.

We just didn’t have the fire power to keep him out there as long as we did.
 

Hankster

What do I know.
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I'd take another Lasan Kromah or Shonn Miller...
Shonn Miller was a monster under the boards. AND could score. A great 5th year senior like Anderson.
 

UconnU

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Ria'n Holland is a PLAYER.
 

uconnbill

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Someone who can shoot a three would be great though a big man who rebounds well would be nice too. There are a few on that list that could help
 
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Repeat after me:

There is nothing wrong with grad transfers in and of themselves.

There is a grad transfer opportunity cost value formula. It's been a long time since I did some Algebra, but here goes.

(Graduate transfer player win value) - (best possible last scholarship freshman season value) has to be > (last scholarship freshman as sophomore) - (alternate timeline freshman following season value).

I.e. the graduate transfer you bring in has to make a greater difference for your wins this season over a hypothetical freshman than the benefit of having that hypothetical sophomore instead of a different freshman the following year, bearing in mind that championship value isn't linear and marginal increases at higher numbers of wins are more important (aka going from 6 to 10 wins is less beneficial than going from 22 to 24). Also there is some sort of adjustment for continuity.

Graduate transfers make sense when:
A) The graduate transfer is that good and fills a need on a team expected to be competitive.
B) The recruiting options are that bad.
C) The following year's recruiting options are expected to be that much superior to this year's.
 

storrsroars

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Ryan Luther from Pitt wouldn't be a bad pickup for a year. Averaged 12.7 points 10 rebounds. I'd take that right now

Luther would be an excellent add if his foot is fully healed.
 
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