Gonzaga Scouting Report | The Boneyard

Gonzaga Scouting Report

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Across the span of 21 months, UConn will now face Gonzaga for a third time and both prior times, UConn flatly dominated each matchup. First, UConn shellacked Gonzaga in the 2023 Elite Eight. Last season, the Huskies put on a defensive masterwork against one of the consistently best offensive programs in the nation.

This season, Gonzaga returns three starters and six regular rotation players from last year, making the team’s 69.2% minutes continuity rate the fifth-highest in D1 basketball, per KenPom.com. Therefore, UConn has a distinct advantage of roster familiarity, but while their returning core trio of Ryan Nembhard, Graham Ike and Nolan Hickman will again be front-and-center of the team’s scouting report, portal additions and the continued development of senior Ben Gregg and sophomores Dusty Stromer and Braden Huff adds a layer of defensive stability and toughness that was lacking in Gonzaga’s last two teams. Simply put, this is Gonzaga’s most balanced team since the 2021-22 Sweet Sixteen, not just in the growth in two-way play, but also in the balance of scoring attack with the team featuring six players who average double-digits scoring per game.

Spending this summer with Team USA in the Paris Olympics, Mark Few brought to Spokane a few wrinkles that inspired him during his time on Steve Kerr’s staff, namely a willingness to open up rotations and lean into the versatility of his veteran roster.

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A rare guard averaging a double-double, simply put, Ryan Nembhard is the best point guard in the nation. Just like last year, Nembhard is the pick-and-roll conductor of Gonzaga’s offense and the team’s approach on this offensive attack is even more potent this year with a stronger group of four forwards. An incredibly creative and poised two-way point guard, Nembhard runs the offense from a variety of speeds. This season, Nembhard is actually playing with career low usage rates, and conversely career highs of three-point efficiency (40%) and career best turnover rates (14.3%) are the catalyst to him achieving career high levels of offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Despite his lack of size, Nembhard is an at-worst average defender.

Nembhard’s top pick-and-roll partner is senior Graham Ike, a strong and shifty lefty big who is an excellent rebounder whose best low-post attribute is how he can mask his intentions and sneak off a shot quickly before the defender can realize his intentions. Despite his back-to-the-basket game, Ike can also pick-and-pop and is developing his facilitating abilities. He’s also an active, switchable defender whose efficiency on the defensive end has improved as his minutes have lessened thanks to the improvement of his fellow frontcourt mates.

Even following the graduation of Anton Watson, the 54th pick in the 2024 Draft, Gonzaga’s frontcourt rotation is better this year because Few is less reliant on his starters, making matching up and game-planning against the group tougher than last year. In addition to Ike, sophomore Braden Huff and senior Ben Gregg also get minutes at the 5 while more of Gregg’s minutes are at the 4.

Huff is an all-around skilled center, who, like Ike, is a lefty with a strong back-to-the-basket game but he possesses more face-up skills than Ike. A backup this season, Huff is Gonzaga’s “Next Great Center” as he is able to score in bunches thanks to an impressive 27.5 points and 2.3 assists averaged per-40 minutes played. Huff’s biggest development is in his defensive game as his improved strength, conditioning and toughness has helped Huff become an asset on defense.

Ben Gregg is another high-efficiency, high-energy forward who can do a little bit of everything. For two years in a row, Gregg is Gonzaga’s most efficient offensive player, per KenPom, thanks to his miniscule turnover rate and shooting efficiency. He rarely handles the ball and doesn’t have plays drawn up for him, but he does most of his scoring from threes and offensive rebound putbacks. An all-around good glue guy, Gregg is a solid defender and possesses excellent motor and energy off-the-bench.

Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi has done an excellent job stepping into Anton Watson’s starting spot at the power forward position. Like Watson, Ajayi is incredibly versatile and, despite his surprising early struggles at the three-point line (21.1% this year vs 46.8% last year), Ajayi has delivered the goods. An excellent two-way rebounder, Ajayi also possesses the size, length and strength to guard multiple positions. In addition to his strong three-point shooting last year, Ajayi can put the ball on the deck and create off the dribble. So far, his offensive performance has been limited due to his long-range shooting issues, but he can contribute in a lot of ways.

Overall, Gonzaga’s starting lineup features Ike at the 5 and Ajayi at the four, but Few readily mixes and matches his forwards throughout the game.

In addition to Nembhard, senior Nolan Hickman and sophomore Dusty Stromer return to Gonzaga’s backcourt. Now in his fourth season at Gonzaga, Hickman is reprising his off-ball role this year after playing his sophomore season as Gonzaga’s starting point guard. Hickman is a rare guard who focuses more on his mid-range game than work around the rim, with his bag of floaters and bank shot tricks. Hickman is also an excellent perimeter scorer. So far this year, Hickman’s defensive metrics look better than last year, but Hickman is more comfortable guarding teams’ off-ball guard.

After gaining eight pounds of muscle since last season, Dusty Stromer is returning to his 3-and-D wing role off the bench. Now with a year of basketball under his belt, Stromer is noticeably more assertive on both ends of the floor, and there’s a level of toughness in him that we didn’t see as much last season. Like Huff, Stromer is another player who, while playing a supportive role now, it is easy to see his long-term star potential for Gonzaga.

Speaking of stars, Arkansas transfer Khalif Battle is now in his sixth season of college basketball and that experience makes him arguably the team’s most versatile player. Starting at the 3, but also getting minutes as Nembhard and Hickman’s “backup”, Battle can score in bunches and is the team’s best pure bucket-getter while also shooting well enough from three to respect his spacing. Currently, EvanMiya.com ranks Battle as Gonzaga’s second most efficient defender and he boasts the ability to guard 1-through-4.

Off the bench, Tarleton State transfer Emmanuel Innocenti is a sparingly used defensive sparkplug who gets minutes at the 2 and the 3. Last season, the Billy Gillespie led Tarleton State Texans played one of the most aggressive defenses in the nation, and Innocenti’s defensive prowess last season earned him a spot on the WAC All-Defensive Team and WAC All-Freshman Team.

Right now, Gonzaga has more talent and is playing better all-around basketball than UConn, but Hurley and his staff are undefeated against Gonzaga and there’s something to be said about dominating a team that returns six rotation players from last year. Even while their defense is improving, Gonzaga has always been a team whose success rides on their offensive flow – the team doesn’t win rock fights.

In summary, the recipe for success against Gonzaga has been smothering Gonzaga on the perimeter and preventing Nembhard from percolating in the halfcourt. In the last two matches, UConn’s three-point defense has been exceptional, with Gonzaga combining to shoot an ice-cold 4-for-32 (12.5%) from three. Also, Gonzaga is most comfortable off the transition, so UConn will try to control the pace.

Tipping off at Storrs South, UConn has momentum on their side with Gonzaga coming off an overtime loss to Kentucky while UConn is on the heels of a strong week beating Baylor at home and dominating Texas at Moody Center.
 
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The Nembhard matchup will be the story of the game. He had an issue with UConn’s back court length last year while Hass did a great job containing his dribble penetration as well. Will be a tall order this year. Once the pick and roll gets going, I fear what Ike may do to the foul happy front court. I hope I am wrong.
 

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