The Big 3
KenPom season-long stats.
On/Off vs. Top 200 opponents with garbage time filtered out. Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer.
So by RAPM, Gonzaga's 3 best players are their center, PF, and wing. But it's a bit of a surprise at the top, as Anton Watson rates out as their most impactful player. Timme is their best offensive player, but Watson's defense pushes him over the top. If we had to pick one guy to get foul trouble, it might be Watson. Their team defense and especially defensive rebounding tanks when he's out (aside from rebounding, they foul more often and force less turnovers). He has some range, but attempts only 1 or 2 per game from deep. More effectively, he shoots 66% on his 2s on decent volume. He's a very adept offensive rebounder. His steal rate as a power forward is extremely high. Bad FT shooter.
Drew Timme is a top 8 offensive player in the entire country (and #2 in KenPom's POTY ranking), but a turnstile on defense. The team is 14 points / 100 pos better on defense with him off the court. But when he's in, they get shots at the rim a lot more and convert at a high rate. Timme plays a lot of minutes, so I'm sure there's some wonkiness in the OFF sample (lineups for fouling or getting fouled at end of games, winning by a bunch against 100-200 ranked teams, etc.). So I trust the RAPM and being 5th in PORPAGATUI! much more than the ON/OFF splits as to his value.
Zags and their opponents are surprisingly similar in their shooting splits when flamethrower Julian Strawther is in or out, but he helps them draw more fouls, rebound, and his gravity opens up more chances at the rim. Defensively he rates out as pretty average, but has the team's leading DReb%. He shoots 42% from 3 on high volume (5+ attempts per game), with range out to the 'S' in the March Madnes'S' logo (as seen in the UCLA ending). Like all 3 of these players, he keeps his mistakes to a minimum. He scores efficiently at all 3 levels. He'd be the best offensive player and focal point on 99% of the teams in the country.
KenPom season-long stats.
On/Off vs. Top 200 opponents with garbage time filtered out. Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer.
So by RAPM, Gonzaga's 3 best players are their center, PF, and wing. But it's a bit of a surprise at the top, as Anton Watson rates out as their most impactful player. Timme is their best offensive player, but Watson's defense pushes him over the top. If we had to pick one guy to get foul trouble, it might be Watson. Their team defense and especially defensive rebounding tanks when he's out (aside from rebounding, they foul more often and force less turnovers). He has some range, but attempts only 1 or 2 per game from deep. More effectively, he shoots 66% on his 2s on decent volume. He's a very adept offensive rebounder. His steal rate as a power forward is extremely high. Bad FT shooter.
Drew Timme is a top 8 offensive player in the entire country (and #2 in KenPom's POTY ranking), but a turnstile on defense. The team is 14 points / 100 pos better on defense with him off the court. But when he's in, they get shots at the rim a lot more and convert at a high rate. Timme plays a lot of minutes, so I'm sure there's some wonkiness in the OFF sample (lineups for fouling or getting fouled at end of games, winning by a bunch against 100-200 ranked teams, etc.). So I trust the RAPM and being 5th in PORPAGATUI! much more than the ON/OFF splits as to his value.
Zags and their opponents are surprisingly similar in their shooting splits when flamethrower Julian Strawther is in or out, but he helps them draw more fouls, rebound, and his gravity opens up more chances at the rim. Defensively he rates out as pretty average, but has the team's leading DReb%. He shoots 42% from 3 on high volume (5+ attempts per game), with range out to the 'S' in the March Madnes'S' logo (as seen in the UCLA ending). Like all 3 of these players, he keeps his mistakes to a minimum. He scores efficiently at all 3 levels. He'd be the best offensive player and focal point on 99% of the teams in the country.