Geno should borrow from Pat Riley’s playbook

[Cedar]

After looking at the players’ statistics, I have become more bullish about the upcoming season. If Geno were to borrow a page from Pat Riley’s motivational playbook, and inspire the players to improve their performances by at least 5%, the team could come close to matching its scoring average of 73.8 points/game last season, even with Paige out for this season.

I read that former LA Lakers coach Pat Riley challenged his players to improve their performances by 5% prior to the 1986-1987 season. The Lakers accepted Riley’s challenge, and went on to win the NBA championship in 1987.

Below is a scenario of how UCONN’s offensive production might look in the 2022-2023 season. I looked at the minutes played and points-per-minute (ppm) production of Dorka, Aaliyah, Caroline, and Azzi from last season, then adjusted their ppm numbers upward by 5% to reflect the fact that they will have more experience with Geno’s motion offense, and some of them may be healthier this season. In particular, Azzi’s offensive production may increase if her foot has healed, and Caroline may be more effective following her hip surgery. The scenario also assumes that the non-starters will contribute 20 points per game.

Is this scenario realistic? Time will tell.

2022-2023 season scenario

Player	Average points per minute	Average minutes per game	Average points per game
Point guard to be determined	0.33	25	8
Azzi Fudd	0.45	29	13
Caroline Ducharme	0.49	25	12
Aaliyah Edwards	0.33	28	9
Dorka Juhasz	0.39	28	11
Non-starters (bench)	0.30	65	20
Total		200	73​

​

 

[ConnMotors]

Unless Azzi and Caroline are in foul trouble I expect both of them to be on the floor for at at least 32 minutes per game. How Nika plays will determine if more minutes are needed by the above two mentioned players. As for the post I'm not worried. Aaliyah and Dorka will fill out the stat sheets. As mentioned before lets get this season started.

 

[diggerfoot]

Unless Azzi and Caroline are in foul trouble I expect both of them to be on the floor for at at least 32 minutes per game. How Nika plays will determine if more minutes are needed by the above two mentioned players. As for the post I'm not worried. Aaliyah and Dorka will fill out the stat sheets. As mentioned before lets get this season started.

With UConn‘s preference for “positionless” basketball, the point guard and center still stand out as positions. In UConn offense that run well in the past there is one point guard running the offense with minimal reliance on alternatives. Consequently PGs like Rizzotti, Bird, Montgomery, etc tended to have the highest minutes per game.

Given that Bueckers is out and Muhl is now the one pure point guard, if her minutes are not on a par with the others, that will be a bad sign for UConn.

 

[Zinethar]

This post is interesting but I wondered why, once again, Nika was left out? Perhaps as the poster felt the point guard position was up in the air? It isn't. It will be Nika with Azzi giving her some rest. Currently no one else has had time at the point. As others have siad Nika needs to cut down on fouls, and it seems she did last year as she was needed more to be in the game. She also will need to shoot more with a larger shot selection. It would appear that is what is currently the focus. Unless more help is gotten at that position I fear that UConn's success will closely follow how NIka can perform. She is one of my favorites. You go girl!

 

[Bone Dog]

I will not be surprised if -- that's my way of saying I fully expect -- Azzi and Caroline each to average close to 20 pts/game. They have the skills and the chutzpah to do it. If we get 8 from Nika, 10 from Lou, and 14 each from Dorka and Aaliyah then we're in business.

 

[donalddoowop]

I don't think Geno needs to borrow from anyone when it comes to coaching.

 

[SVCBeercats]

After looking at the players’ statistics, I have become more bullish about the upcoming season. If Geno were to borrow a page from Pat Riley’s motivational playbook, and inspire the players to improve their performances by at least 5%, the team could come close to matching its scoring average of 73.8 points/game last season, even with Paige out for this season. Is this realistic?

It is not realistic. This team will average 80+ points per game.

 

[AmeriConn]

After looking at the players’ statistics, I have become more bullish about the upcoming season. If Geno were to borrow a page from Pat Riley’s motivational playbook, and inspire the players to improve their performances by at least 5%, the team could come close to matching its scoring average of 73.8 points/game last season, even with Paige out for this season.

I read that former LA Lakers coach Pat Riley challenged his players to improve their performances by 5% prior to the 1986-1987 season. The Lakers accepted Riley’s challenge, and went on to win the NBA championship in 1987.

Below is a scenario of how UCONN’s offensive production might look in the 2022-2023 season. I looked at the minutes played and points-per-minute (ppm) production of Dorka, Aaliyah, Caroline, and Azzi from last season, then adjusted their ppm numbers upward by 5% to reflect the fact that they will have more experience with Geno’s motion offense, and some of them may be healthier this season. In particular, Azzi’s offensive production may increase if her foot has healed, and Caroline may be more effective following her hip surgery. The scenario also assumes that the non-starters will contribute 20 points per game.

Is this scenario realistic? Time will tell.

2022-2023 season scenario

Player	Average points per minute	Average minutes per game	Average points per game
Point guard to be determined	0.33	25	8
Azzi Fudd	0.45	29	13
Caroline Ducharme	0.49	25	12
Aaliyah Edwards	0.33	28	9
Dorka Juhasz	0.39	28	11
Non-starters (bench)	0.30	65	20
Total		200	73​

​

Just wondering why Nika wasn’t listed as the point guard.

 

[Cuango]

After looking at the players’ statistics, I have become more bullish about the upcoming season. If Geno were to borrow a page from Pat Riley’s motivational playbook, and inspire the players to improve their performances by at least 5%, the team could come close to matching its scoring average of 73.8 points/game last season, even with Paige out for this season.

I read that former LA Lakers coach Pat Riley challenged his players to improve their performances by 5% prior to the 1986-1987 season. The Lakers accepted Riley’s challenge, and went on to win the NBA championship in 1987.

Below is a scenario of how UCONN’s offensive production might look in the 2022-2023 season. I looked at the minutes played and points-per-minute (ppm) production of Dorka, Aaliyah, Caroline, and Azzi from last season, then adjusted their ppm numbers upward by 5% to reflect the fact that they will have more experience with Geno’s motion offense, and some of them may be healthier this season. In particular, Azzi’s offensive production may increase if her foot has healed, and Caroline may be more effective following her hip surgery. The scenario also assumes that the non-starters will contribute 20 points per game.

Is this scenario realistic? Time will tell.

2022-2023 season scenario

Player	Average points per minute	Average minutes per game	Average points per game
Point guard to be determined	0.33	25	8
Azzi Fudd	0.45	29	13
Caroline Ducharme	0.49	25	12
Aaliyah Edwards	0.33	28	9
Dorka Juhasz	0.39	28	11
Non-starters (bench)	0.30	65	20
Total		200	73​

​

I think all these projections, with the possible exceptions of the PG and the bench, are on the conservative side. Of course, better that than some pie in the sky number that isn’t likely to happen! I will be very surprised if we don’t average 77 pts per game! I think Azzi and Caroline will both average 15 or more and Dorka and AE will average 11 or more. Plug in 6 for Nika and 19 from the bench and we’re good to go!

 

[Carnac]

Unless Azzi and Caroline are in foul trouble I expect both of them to be on the floor for at at least 32 minutes per game. How Nika plays will determine if more minutes are needed by the above two mentioned players. As for the post I'm not worried. Aaliyah and Dorka will fill out the stat sheets. As mentioned before lets get this season started.

ConnMotors believe me, I’m as anxious to see the season start as anyone, but we must remember that November will get here in due time. Some of our girls need these next 3 months to finish rehabbing from surgical proceedures and work their way into playing conditions. I’m excited about the players we have, and want to see their fitness level.

Will everyone be 100% healthy and ready to begin the season? Will Geno be forced to played musical chairs with his game-by-game line up based on who is healthy and availible to play? Will Azzi’s foot hold up the entire season? Will Caroline’s hip surgery hold up and allow her to play injury free and allow her to exceed her potential this year?

Will the injury bug leave our program alone this season? Heaven knows it hasn’t recently. We lost our team leader for the entire year. As others have said, we cannot afford to lose another starter. I’m sure the players all know and understand what lies ahead for them this season. Whatever success this team has this year, it will be a team effort.

Last year only two players were available to play in every game. Let’s hope all ten are available this year.

 

[Bone Dog]

Will the injury bug leave our program alone this season? Heaven knows it hasn’t recently.

Has it ever? I watched some older tournament games, and the number of knee and ankle braces those girls were wearing is seriously scary. That's why the team motto was "Tape it up and go."

 

[Adesmar123]

After looking at the players’ statistics, I have become more bullish about the upcoming season. If Geno were to borrow a page from Pat Riley’s motivational playbook, and inspire the players to improve their performances by at least 5%, the team could come close to matching its scoring average of 73.8 points/game last season, even with Paige out for this season.

I read that former LA Lakers coach Pat Riley challenged his players to improve their performances by 5% prior to the 1986-1987 season. The Lakers accepted Riley’s challenge, and went on to win the NBA championship in 1987.

Below is a scenario of how UCONN’s offensive production might look in the 2022-2023 season. I looked at the minutes played and points-per-minute (ppm) production of Dorka, Aaliyah, Caroline, and Azzi from last season, then adjusted their ppm numbers upward by 5% to reflect the fact that they will have more experience with Geno’s motion offense, and some of them may be healthier this season. In particular, Azzi’s offensive production may increase if her foot has healed, and Caroline may be more effective following her hip surgery. The scenario also assumes that the non-starters will contribute 20 points per game.

Is this scenario realistic? Time will tell.

2022-2023 season scenario

Player	Average points per minute	Average minutes per game	Average points per game
Point guard to be determined	0.33	25	8
Azzi Fudd	0.45	29	13
Caroline Ducharme	0.49	25	12
Aaliyah Edwards	0.33	28	9
Dorka Juhasz	0.39	28	11
Non-starters (bench)	0.30	65	20
Total		200	73​

​

Mathematically, I think something closer to 70% rather than 5% would be more effective.

 

[Cedar]

I will not be surprised if -- that's my way of saying I fully expect -- Azzi and Caroline each to average close to 20 pts/game. They have the skills and the chutzpah to do it. If we get 8 from Nika, 10 from Lou, and 14 each from Dorka and Aaliyah then we're in business.

Bone Dog, I enjoy reading your intelligent and often insightful posts, but I respectfully question your expectation that Azzi and Caroline will average close to 20 points/game this season. I suppose it depends on how you define the word “close.”

Diana Taurasi didn’t average 20 points/game in any of her 4 years at UCONN. Her highest scoring average was 17.9 points/game in 2002-3.

Maya Moore averaged less than 20 points/game in 3 of her 4 seasons at UCONN.

Breanna Stewart also averaged less than 20 points/game in all 4 of her seasons at UCONN.

If Azzi and Caroline each average more than 17 points per game, I will be ecstatic.

It is not realistic. This team will average 80+ points per game. View attachment 78414

I would like to have a wager with you about this. I would bet you $300 that UCONN WBB’s average scoring will be less than 80 points/game this upcoming season. Loser has to pay to a charity picked by HuskyNan. Since I don’t think HuskyNan will allow wagers, my suggested wager will have to be hypothetical.

UCONN‘s offense has averaged less than 80 points/game during 2 of the past 3 seasons. Moreover, UCONN will be without Paige this upcoming season. I would like to be proven wrong, but I think it is unlikely that UCONN will average 80+ points/game during the 2022-2023 season.

 

[Cedar]

I respectfully disagree with the posters who think the scenario in the OP is unrealistic. I took last season’s actual points-per-minute numbers for four of the projected starters (2 - 5), and multiplied them by 105% in accordance with Pat Riley’s motivational method.

The projections for minutes are also reasonable when compared to last season’s actual numbers. Only 1 player, Christyn Williams, averaged more than 30 minutes per game during the 2021-2022 season.

I think the model’s numbers are conservative, but not unrealistic. It was intended to provide a scenario or blueprint for nearly matching last season’s average offensive output, which was good enough to get UCONN to the championship game.

Although Nika is presumed by many to be the starting point guard, I listed the PG spot as “to be determined” because I had seen reports on the BY and elsewhere that Geno was actively looking for a PG after Paige’s injury. It was not intended to be a slight to Nika.

We have recently lost to injury arguably the best player in collegiate women’s basketball, Paige. In addition to being a prolific scorer, she has a high basketball IQ and is very effective at distributing the ball.

Paige scored an average of 14.6 points/game and 0.5 points/minute last season. Nika scored 3.8 points/game and 0.18 points/minute. By comparison, Moriah Jefferson scored 9.9 points/game and 0.37 points/minute during her UCONN career.

Like many BY posters, I am hopeful that we can exceed last season’s 73.8 points/game scoring average, but that optimism is tempered by the undeniable fact that Paige will be out this season.

 

[southofnorth]

Bone Dog, I enjoy reading your intelligent and often insightful posts, but I respectfully question your expectation that Azzi and Caroline will average close to 20 points/game this season. I suppose it depends on how you define the word “close.”

Both Napheesa Collier (2016-17, 2018-19) AND Katie Lou Samuelson (2016-17) averaged over 20ppg in a season. They both were above 20ppg during the 2016-17 season with Pheesa averaging 20.4ppg and KLS averaging 20.2ppg when they were both sophomores. And that’s after they averaged 6.8ppg and 11pm, respectively, the prior (their freshman) season.

 

[eebmg]

Everyone is focused on points scored and I think we can cobble together a very good offensive team but I am quite concerned about the defense.

Who can be our defensive stopper? Nika to some extent but if she is our only real pg, she is going to have to stay on the court and that means she will need to be less aggressive defensively. Aubrey again maybe but not only is she coming back from injury but a lot of rust. Aaliyah seems to me our most unique defender who can really affect the game and maybe our returning and new interior players show off in this area but our success has historically been connected to a top 5 defense and we lost alot of (experienced) defense with Christyn, Evina, Paige and Liv

Feel free to talk me off the ledge.

 

[Bone Dog]

Everyone is focused on points scored and I think we can cobble together a very good offensive team but I am quite concerned about the defense.

Who can be our defensive stopper? Nika to some extent but if she is our only real pg, she is going to have to stay on the court and that means she will need to be less aggressive defensively. Aubrey again maybe but not only is she coming back from injury but a lot of rust. Aaliyah seems to me our most unique defender who can really affect the game and maybe our returning and new interior players show off in this area but our success has historically been connected to a top 5 defense and we lost alot of (experienced) defense with Christyn, Evina, Paige and Liv

Feel free to talk me off the ledge.

Caroline is also a formidable defender and surprising shot blocker

 

[Bone Dog]

I respectfully question your expectation that Azzi and Caroline will average close to 20 points/game this season. I suppose it depends on how you define the word “close.”

I hear you, @Cedar and you may be right. In any event, a high scoring team is not necessarily a good team. I think this is one of the things Geno means when he says offense should come from defense. For example, a team like Maryland two years ago could score 90 most games and still not be a particularly great team.

And thanks, @southofnorth, for your example of a high scoring duo. I think Azzi and Caroline might just complement each other pretty well this year. They’re both good inside finishers, but Caroline is bigger than a lot of folks on BY seem to remember. At 6’2”, she can be formidable in the paint. Last year, during our layup swoon, she was the only person who could really be relied on to score in the paint. Runners, floaters, putbacks — Caroline is as reliable with these as anyone in the country. Azzi is better from 3, but she’s a finisher in the paint too.

 

[eebmg]

Caroline is also a formidable defender and surprising shot blocker

I know she had that great defensive 3 block game against Creighton but she averaged 0.5 blocks / game (Average level) . I would say her defense is a work in progress as is any freshman not named Kia Nurse. I use KLS as her target player . If she can raise her game to near Lou's level on both ends, that will go a very long way to a deep run

 

[Bone Dog]

I know she had that great defensive 3 block game against Creighton but she averaged 0.5 blocks / game (Average level) . I would say her defense is a work in progress as is any freshman not named Kia Nurse. I use KLS as her target player . If she can raise her game to near Lou's level on both ends, that will go a very long way to a deep run

I agree that she was uneven across the season. But I would attribute that to her hip problems. As the season wore on, I thought she ran less freely, her stride got shorter, and I suspect that would inevitably act as a limitation on her defensive effectiveness.

 

[SVCBeercats]

I would like to have a wager with you about this. I would bet you $300 that UCONN WBB’s average scoring will be less than 80 points/game this upcoming season. Loser has to pay to a charity picked by HuskyNan. Since I don’t think HuskyNan will allow wagers, my suggested wager will have to be hypothetical.

UCONN‘s offense has averaged less than 80 points/game during 2 of the past 3 seasons. Moreover, UCONN will be without Paige this upcoming season. I would like to be proven wrong, but I think it is unlikely that UCONN will average 80+ points/game during the 2022-2023 season.

The graduated three had 3 of UCONN's 5 lowest scoring seasons in the last 12 seasons including the lowest. Not missing their offense. All four of their seasons resulted in higher than average totals for points per game against UCONN. So why be concerned about losing their defense? Eight times in the last 12 years UCONN averaged more than 80 points per game. Yep, no Bueckers! But this time Geno has lots of time to reformulate the team. Always want Bueckers in the lineup, however, these players can get it done with or without Bueckers. As she would want it. And they will average 80+ points per game. Betcha Connecticut's favorite snack, a Birch Beer! Mrs, SVC admonished me about taking your candy money.

 

[hoophuskee]

After looking at the players’ statistics, I have become more bullish about the upcoming season. If Geno were to borrow a page from Pat Riley’s motivational playbook, and inspire the players to improve their performances by at least 5%, the team could come close to matching its scoring average of 73.8 points/game last season, even with Paige out for this season.

I read that former LA Lakers coach Pat Riley challenged his players to improve their performances by 5% prior to the 1986-1987 season. The Lakers accepted Riley’s challenge, and went on to win the NBA championship in 1987.

Below is a scenario of how UCONN’s offensive production might look in the 2022-2023 season. I looked at the minutes played and points-per-minute (ppm) production of Dorka, Aaliyah, Caroline, and Azzi from last season, then adjusted their ppm numbers upward by 5% to reflect the fact that they will have more experience with Geno’s motion offense, and some of them may be healthier this season. In particular, Azzi’s offensive production may increase if her foot has healed, and Caroline may be more effective following her hip surgery. The scenario also assumes that the non-starters will contribute 20 points per game.

Is this scenario realistic? Time will tell.

2022-2023 season scenario

Player	Average points per minute	Average minutes per game	Average points per game
Point guard to be determined	0.33	25	8
Azzi Fudd	0.45	29	13
Caroline Ducharme	0.49	25	12
Aaliyah Edwards	0.33	28	9
Dorka Juhasz	0.39	28	11
Non-starters (bench)	0.30	65	20
Total		200	73​

​

If in 86-87 Pat Reilly's Lakers had Magic Johnson (Paige) hurt most of the year not returning to 100% form. Had the combo of their starting center Jabbar (Liv) and their sharp-shooting scorer Byron Scott (Azzi) playing hurt and two highly valued bench players Mychal Thompson and Michael Copper (Dorka and Aubrey) unable to play, then he wasn't beating the Celtics or Pistons either.

Maybe Reilly can learn something from Geno? I'm just having fun - not so serious.

Anyhow, didn't Geno do a sensational job inspiring his team this past year? I mean the Lakers had a peak Magic Johnson. A peak James Worthy. A still very-good Jabbar. and a defensive whiz in Cooper.

 

[Cedar]

Both Napheesa Collier (2016-17, 2018-19) AND Katie Lou Samuelson (2016-17) averaged over 20ppg in a season. They both were above 20ppg during the 2016-17 season with Pheesa averaging 20.4ppg and KLS averaging 20.2ppg when they were both sophomores. And that’s after they averaged 6.8ppg and 11pm, respectively, the prior (their freshman) season.

You are correct. I had forgotten about those 20+ ppg scoring averages by Napheesa and Katie Lou. Time will tell if Azzi and Caroline can show similar improvement after their freshman season.

 

[Cedar]

The graduated three had 3 of UCONN's 5 lowest scoring seasons in the last 12 seasons including the lowest. Not missing their offense. All four of their seasons resulted in higher than average totals for points per game against UCONN. So why be concerned about losing their defense? Eight times in the last 12 years UCONN averaged more than 80 points per game. Yep, no Bueckers! But this time Geno has lots of time to reformulate the team. Always want Bueckers in the lineup, however, these players can get it done with or without Bueckers. As she would want it. And they will average 80+ points per game. Betcha Connecticut's favorite snack, a Birch Beer! Mrs, SVC admonished me about taking your candy money.
View attachment 78447

I was aware of the longer-term trend. I had previously looked back as far as 2015.

You are correct that UCONN scored above 80 points in many of those years. Keep in mind, however, that your stats include Maya’s last season as well as the four-year run of national champions featuring Breanna Stewart, Morgan Tuck, and Moriah Jefferson. KML was also on some of those teams. The NC teams with Breanna et al. were some of the best teams in the history of collegiate WBB. Those players have all graduated, as have later prolific scorers such as Napheesa Collier and Katie Lou Samuelson.

The competitive landscape has also changed. I think that there has been more dispersal of talent (for both players and coaches), and the competition has improved.

I think the recent trend for UCONN will predominate, and UCONN will average less than 80 points/game this season.

I’ve never had birch beer, but I do like root beer.

I don’t want to take your money, but if UCONN averages less than 80 points/game of offense, you won’t have to eat crow, but you should eat this English dessert.

 

[Cedar]

I hear you, @Cedar and you may be right. In any event, a high scoring team is not necessarily a good team. I think this is one of the things Geno means when he says offense should come from defense. For example, a team like Maryland two years ago could score 90 most games and still not be a particularly great team.

I agree with you that a high-scoring team is not necessarily a good team. Your example of Maryland is a good one.

I have confidence that Geno will have the team playing good defense this year. The more vexing problem is offense now that Paige is out of the lineup.

If in 86-87 Pat Reilly's Lakers had Magic Johnson (Paige) hurt most of the year not returning to 100% form. Had the combo of their starting center Jabbar (Liv) and their sharp-shooting scorer Byron Scott (Azzi) playing hurt and two highly valued bench players Mychal Thompson and Michael Copper (Dorka and Aubrey) unable to play, then he wasn't beating the Celtics or Pistons either.

Maybe Reilly can learn something from Geno? I'm just having fun - not so serious.

Anyhow, didn't Geno do a sensational job inspiring his team this past year? I mean the Lakers had a peak Magic Johnson. A peak James Worthy. A still very-good Jabbar. and a defensive whiz in Cooper.

Another important factor was the tragic death of Len Bias, who died of a cocaine overdose two days after the Celtics drafted him as the second overall pick in the 1986 NBA draft. If Bias had lived, the Celtics might have defeated the Lakers in the 1987 NBA finals.

Geno doesn’t need to learn from other coaches—he has 11 NC rings. That said, smart leaders in sports or business often avail themselves of opportunities to learn or to implement ideas from other great leaders. I remember reading one of Rick Pitino’s books, in which he said he studied the motivational methods of Pat Riley. (Unfortunately Pitino didn’t learn how to avoid scandals.)

I agree that Geno did a sensational job inspiring his team this past season.