Tzznandrew's thoughts on the match-up:
Starters
Kemba Walker, 2011 – 23.5ppg, 4.5apg, 5.4rpg, 1.9spg, 0.2bpg
Tony Hanson, 1977 – 26.0ppg, 2.9apg, 10.5rpg, [no steals or blocks stats]
Rudy Gay, 2006 – 15.2ppg, 2.1apg, 6.4rpg, 1.8spg, 1.6bpg
Corny Thompson, 1982 – 14.1ppg, 1.7apg, 8.3rpg, 1.5spg, 0.5bpg
Rod Sellers, 1992 – 12.3ppg, 1.4apg, 8.7rpg, 0.6spg, 0.4spg
Bench
Taliek Brown, 2004 – 6.3ppg, 6.5apg, 3.8rpg, 1.1spg, 0.2bpg
Niels Giffey, 2014 – 8.4ppg, 0.8apg, 3.8rpg, 0.7spg, 0.5bpg
General
No need to rehash it all. It’s in this post if you have forgotten:
http://the-boneyard.com/threads/game-two-pcketnfniels-vs-tzznandrew.59741/#post-954387
Why I Should Win (despite not getting jleves’ vote)
This is really a question of how to stop Emeka Okafor. The rest of his team is very good, but, I think, I have an advantage at every other position. He has only one go-to scorer, and a couple of others that can get theirs in the right situation. He doesn’t have a 20 point scorer, and he only has two players who ever averaged more than 15 in their career (Okafor and Sheffer). Kemba, Hanson, Rudy, and Corny all did this for me. So, if I can stop Okafor, or just let him get his while stopping others, I think I win.
So, how does one stop Okafor. A couple of thoughts:
A rim protector would have served me well here, but Hasheem was gone, and I don’t trust any of the others to be tough enough. Really, I don’t even trust Hasheem…I think Okafor would abuse him.
So my thought is this:
- Keep the ball away from him through ball pressure and tough man-to-man. He can’t score if the guards can’t get it to him. (I can)
- Have a center that is very good man-to-man, but who is nimble enough to do things like front Okafor. (Sellers)
- Get him in foul trouble. (Who has a better shot than Kemba?)
- Don’t cheat off of shooters when he does get the ball. (No need to)
I can do these things.
1. Perimeter Defense
AJ Price struggled against great on the ball defenders like those at Michigan State. Well, Kemba Walker (2011) and Taliek Brown (2004)
both produced more defensive win shares than the best perimeter defenders on Michigan State. And I love Doron Sheffer as a player, but he isn’t staying in front of anyone, especially not Kemba Walker or Tony Hanson. Meanwhile, Sheffer isn’t a player who was great at getting into the lane (that was more Ray Allen’s forte), so I think Hanson can largely keep him out of the lane one on one, and make it difficult for Sheffer to get the ball to Okafor. And if I’m playing Taliek and Kemba, I’m sure I can keep both out of the lane.
I’m not particularly worried about Anderson. Gay can stick on him: he’s more athletic and longer. Additionally, it’s not like Anderson was a good passer, or was someone who could put it on the deck. Anderson will make it so Gay can’t cheat off of him for blocks and steals as much, but that’s okay. I don’t need him to do that in this game.
So I think I can make it difficult for Tenspro’s team to get it into Okafor.
2. Solid Interior Defense
I don’t have a rim protector. Okay. Neither did 1999 or 2011—and 2014’s didn’t play a ton. And 1990, 1995, 1996, and 1998 didn’t have one either, but they still got to 3 E8s, and earned 2 1 seeds, and 2 2 seeds.
But who on Tenspro’s team is consistently going to make me pay at the rim?
Well, if he can get the ball to Okafor, he will, absolutely.
None of his other players will be getting to the rim with any consistency. Only AJ Price, at his peak, was good enough to regularly create his own shot, and that was not his forte, as I noted above. Kemba can keep him out of the lane; Hanson or Brown can keep Sheffer out of the lane; Gay
will keep Anderson out of the lane; KFree didn’t drive the ball. Neither would Travis in a “twins towers” approach.”
I don’t have to cheat: I can play straight up man-to-man, and limit damage to one player. Contrast that to my team: Kemba, Hanson, Rudy don’t have anyone to stop them consistently, and Corny Thompson will be able to score—Freeman will make it difficult, but Thompson’s interior game was strong. And, like I said, he was a good passer for a PF, so if he get’s doubled, he can dish it to Sellers or the open shooter.
One on one, nobody can stop Okafor on my team. But Sellers and my guards can make it difficult for Okafor to receive it in position to score. Sellers is strong enough not to get bullied, and he can front him if necessary. I keep trotting this out, but it’s important: Sellers guarded Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, and Shaq. I like Oak, but Shaq averaged 27 and 15 that year. Oak did not come close to those numbers. Now, Sellers didn’t
stop Shaq (no one did except a hamburger), but he held him right at his averages while the team won big. Sellers can keep Okafor around his average while making it difficult, while my other guys harass Tenspro’s other players.
3. Foul Trouble
In 2 of the 3 biggest games of his career, Okafor lost time due to foul trouble. One game, it cost us. The other it almost did. While Okafor was very good at avoiding fouls, with the amount of time I will be in the lane, I’m betting I can draw some with Kemba Walker, who led the NCAAs in 2011 in FT Attempts. Keep this in mind: it was a crucial aspect of Kemba’s game, so imagining it goes away doesn’t make sense.
@
champs99and04 noted that Kemba averaged “
7.7 free throws per game, a preposterous mark for a college guard” It was a fundamental aspect of Kemba’s greatness that he got into the lane. Those fouls have to go somewhere, and they will: either on the guy guarding him, meaning Tenspro has to play Rashad or Kromah at the 2, or on Okafor.
If I get Okafor in foul trouble, he brings in Knight. Knight is a very good player, who rebounds well and plays good man-to-man defense, but a mean man like Sellers can bully him, and he doesn’t provide much offense or rim protection. He needs that rim protection because his guards can’t stay in front of mine. Without Okafor in, my guys might as well be running a layup line.
4. Staying on Shooters
Tenspro2002 said:
Okafor will abuse Voskuhl in one-on-one scenarios in the paint, and if Adrien comes to double, Freeman will be left free to slip to the rim. If Okafor is doubled by a guard, three 40% 3-point shooters (AJP, Sheffer, and Rashad) stationed at the perimeter will make them pay.
Okafor will not abuse Sellers, and Okafor will have trouble getting the ball due to strong ball pressure. But his other point worries me. Indeed, AJ Price, Doron Sheffer, and Rashad Anderson are all great shooters, so if Okafor gets the ball down low, in good position, it’s in my teams best interest to let Sellers try his best to stick him. I think Sellers is good enough to bother him…but not good enough to stop him. But I’d rather Okafor get 20 and 12, and make sure shooters don’t get off clean shots rather than selling out to stop Okafor.
A stretch 4 would have been great for him, and Freeman is a good defender, great garbage man, and will undoubtedly throw down a thunderous dunk or two in transition (assisted by Sheffer, but ultimately outshone by a Rudy Gay dunk later J), but in a half-court offense he’s not providing too much down low besides put-backs. His lack of offense allows Corny the ability to play defense and stay in the game more, and also clogs the lane a little.
Individual Matchups and Other Thoughts
STARTERS
Kemba >> AJP – Price is good, but this isn’t even close. Kemba was a much better 2-way player.
Tony Hanson > Doron – I like Doron, and he brings great things, but Hanson is better
Rudy Gay >> Rashad Anderson – Anderson has testiculos that Gay doesn’t, but Gay is a better player in every other respect than shooting 3s.
Corny > KFree – Corny can score in more diverse ways, he’s bigger and averaged more rebounds. KFree is a much better athlete and defender, so this is close, but Freeman’s offense is only really dunks and put-backs.
Okafor >>> Sellers – Sellers is tough, can D him well…but yeah, on offense and defense, Okafor wins this individual matchup by a larger margin than any of the other matchups out there.
PERIMETER BENCH PLAYER
Taliek > Kromah – I like Kromah, and he can score better. Taliek is slightly better defensively (they averaged roughly the same Defensive Win Shares per 40) and a better on the court leader. I’ll take the starting PG of a national championship team, but I think this is close.
INTERIOR BENCH PLAYER
Travis > Giffey – They’re very different players. Giffey is a better shooter and better and more versatile defender. Travis is a much better rebounder, and is a good on-the-ball defender, although he could be bullied. I give the edge here Travis, but I think this is also close. Niels could just do so much.
So, individually, I think this favors me 5-2, or at worst, 5-2-1.
DEFENSE
He has the best individual defensive player, and has solid interior defense elsewhere. But he’s going to have to sacrifice Anderson to keep my guards from challenging Okafor nearly every possession. And Kromah is a good defender, but his offense takes a hit. When Taliek is out there, my offense is hurt a little (although he can penetrate and dish with the best of them), but I’ll still have Corny-Rudy-Kemba who can score.
My team defense, 1-5, is better, especially when I run out my 2011-esque Taliek-Kemba-Rudy-Niels-Sellers team, which can score and defend.
REBOUNDING
Okafor and Knight are both better rebounders than my two guys (although I don’t think he can afford to have Knight and Okafor in very much). Sheffer is a good rebounding guard, too. But my guys down low can rebound (each averaged around 9 a game), and Kemba-Hanson-Gay are a great perimeter rebounding trio (5-10-6 respectively). I’ve got lots of guys with a nose for the ball, and so I think this is either a wash, or a slight advantage for Tenspro.
DEPTH
I think this is a wash. He’ll point out that Sellers is my only competent center, and he has to sit some. That is true, although in a pinch Corny can play (and get abused) at the 5. But when he sits either AJ or Doron, he has to play Rashad or Kromah at the 2, and neither of those guys are secure ball-handlers. (Hanson’s ball handling is somewhat irrelevant, since he doesn’t have the strong perimeter defenders.) I think he’s in trouble in a scenario where AJ or Sheffer shares guard duties with Rashad or Kromah. He loses an entry passer into Okafor, and a playmaker. Given that we only picked 7 players, there’s a deficiency somewhere. Mine is in his strength, center. His is in my strength, guards.
Comments by People Smarter than Me
This. This whole post is a thing of beauty:
champs99and04 said:
As much as tzz is trying to advertise Kemba's defense, I'm still not sure he's doing him justice as a two-way player. He was a very good defensive player [...] whose impact on that end wasn't as immense as it could have been had he not been such a tireless worker offensively. It should be noted, though, that whenever he confronted a comprably talented guard during that run - Knight and Mack come to mind - they were shut down [...] People rave about his quickness, but his deceptive strength is what really made him a formidable defender at the college level. He could body up bigger guards and keep them out of the lane. He was also one of the most proficient help-defenders in UConn history. He would come out of nowhere to strip big men, fly from across the court to contest shooters, crash the glass for rebounds, etc. There was a certain voracity, an unrelenting swiftness to Kemba's game that just couldn't be quantified. And his demeanor and infectious personality only encouraged his teammates to play with that same sense of desperation defensively. Jay Bilas put it best: "Kemba almost shames his teammates into playing hard".
On Tony Hanson, from someone who saw him:
hoophusky said:
In his career he was inside/outside player. When big men guarded him, he shot from the outside. When small guys guarded him, he posted them down low. HE could play both. But imo you are looking at this way wrong. Why not ask “if he was only about 6’5 then how is he averaging 26 ppg while shooting 52% from the floor when he is going against bigger guys?” Answer: Because he was able to shoot outside too.
And why not ask, “if he was able to shoot such a high percentage and his shot wasn’t very good- why was he shooting 52% - and how is someone so small shooting such a high percentage along with averaging 26 ppg along with averaging 10.5 rbg? Answer: He’s very athletic too.
My point is, if he was predominantly inside- then there would be several games in which inevitably he’d run into some big frontlines to negate his scoring/efficiency/ and rebounds thus overall there’d be games that dropped his fg efficiency/ppg and rebounds. Thus-- at 6’5 how is he such a prolific scorer and rebounds as well as he does if he wasn’t a good shooter or a very good athlete?